Best percentage line in slam?

[shyams]

This was the first board of my set of Free Daylong IMPs. Opps are robots, and you get to declare from the North side.

 

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East leads the ♣5.

 

What is the best line for 12 tricks? I ask because although I managed to make my slam (as did many people who played the board), I thought my line was much worse than ideal.

 

Thank you for your inputs.

[paulg]

Winning the lead in hand and playing a diamond towards the jack feels like the best move. (Occasionally it is worth putting the opponents under pressure by playing out the clubs, but they know you only have three spades and so will not be under the same sort of pressure.)

 

If the jack of diamonds loses, then you have time to cash some tricks, play for the ten of diamonds dropping in two or three, before committing to the heart finesse.

 

If the jack of diamonds holds, then a diamond back to the nine leads to a similar position.

[Cyberyeti]

Winning the lead in hand and playing a diamond towards the jack feels like the best move. (Occasionally it is worth putting the opponents under pressure by playing out the clubs, but they know you only have three spades and so will not be under the same sort of pressure.)

 

If the jack of diamonds loses, then you have time to cash some tricks, play for the ten of diamonds dropping in two or three, before committing to the heart finesse.

 

If the jack of diamonds holds, then a diamond back to the nine leads to a similar position.

 

Wondering if it matters whether the ♣10 appears from W at trick 1, as you have 2 hand entries in clubs if it doesn't, so if ♦J holds you can return to hand to hook the heart next, meaning you can make if E has 3 or 4 hearts along with ♦K.

 

I don't know what the robots prefer to lead and what they lead from xxx/xxxx and what you can glean from ♣5.

[nudnikbp]

Diamond ace, then low toward the jack. If necessary, take the heart finesse later.

[AL78]

I'm thinking lead towards ♦J, if it loses wih the return, cash ♥AK, three rounds of spades (ditching a heart) and four rounds of clubs (ditching a heart). if the ♥Q is singleton or doubleton, or diamonds are 3-3, or one opponent has 4+ diamonds and 3+♥ to the Q, I make the 12th trick through a favourable red suit layout or a squeeze. I haven't worked out how the odds compare to taking the heart finesse.

 

If the ♦J holds, play a low one back to the ♦9. If it forces the king, I have 12 tricks. If the ten wins, win the return, cash ♦A, if the king drops the ♦Q is the 12 trick. If it doesn't drop, cash one heart and run all the black suit winners ending in North throwing a low heart from each hand. Play a heart to South, if the queen doesn't appear from East, make an educated guess whether to finesse or play high.

[Stephen Tu]

I think just running the J of diamonds is better than leading toward the J, no?

 

 

[Cyberyeti]

I think just running the J of diamonds is better than leading toward the J, no?

 

It almost certainly is double dummy, just thinking about it single dummy. May also depend on what the robot leads from ♠ xx(x) ♥ xxx(x), ♦ K10xx, ♣ xxx(x)

[DavidKok]

What about diamond to the queen, cross in clubs, play the diamond jack (this seems slightly better to me than running the diamond jack because you can pick up an overtrick if West has the singleton king), not really caring if any of them lose to East. This produces at least three tricks in diamonds whenever they break 3-3, or West has the king, or West has T(x) (or East has a void or singleton or West has a void). If East wins the first or second round of diamonds we win the return and cash the ace of diamonds. If they split 3-3 we are home, if East has the diamond guard they cannot also protect the queen of hearts in the endplay so we cash all side suit winners (pitching a heart from both hands) ending in North followed by the two top hearts, and if West has the diamond guard instead we cash one top heart, cross to North in a black suit and take the heart finesse (slightly better odds than a red suit squeeze, since West is known to have diamond length). I believe that this picks up all chances except for early finesses against the ♦T, and also West holding ♦Txxx and ♥Qx(+).

 

Perhaps against robots small to the jack is better, but at the table it will be difficult to distinguish between East having KTx and Tx on that line (plus you have now created problems if West held precisely K(x))

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&e=ST87HT873DKT76C532&s=sq3hakj4dj85caqj2&n=sak9h652daq93ck94&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1np2cp2dp6nppp&p=C5]400|300| shyams 'This was the first board of my set of Free Daylong IMPs. Opps are robots, and you get to declare from the North side. East leads the ♣5. What is the best line for 12 tricks? I ask because although I managed to make my slam (as did many people who played the board), I thought my line was much worse than ideal.'

+++++++++++++++++++++++

DavidKok's line seems to win whenever

- LHO is void in ♦s or

- LHO has > 4 ♦s or

- LHO has ♦K or

- ♦T drops in 3

- ♥ finesse works or (show-up) squeeze materializes (as here).

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[cherdano]

Agree with everything David wrote, just one small correction:

What about diamond to the queen, cross in clubs, play the diamond jack (this seems slightly better to me than running the diamond jack because you can pick up an overtrick if West has the singleton king), not really caring if any of them lose to East.

The reason to lead low to the queen is that you make three diamond tricks when West has a void. Running the J is better for overtricks because you pick up KTx onside, and also because in your line you pick up singleton K only at the cost of giving up the overtrick to KT onside against a defender who puts in the K.

[shyams]

Diamond ace, then low toward the jack. If necessary, take the heart finesse later.

At the table, I did this.

* Unfortunately West won the ♦J with the ♦K with the ♦10 still out.

* Fortunately diamonds broke 3-3 so 12 tricks were easy.

 

My plan was to either find East with ♦10x or for East to have ♦Kx / Kxx / Kxxx (the last covers the situation of West being dealt ♦10x). If it doesn't work, then I hoped to find diamonds splitting 3-3. If nothing works so far, then I can fall back on a finesse in hearts (in some situations, it becomes a show-up squeeze).