An elementary situation?

[shyams]

A very simple hand came up at a MP game. Assume natural bidding... and a 2NT opening as 20-21 balanced

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skq7hakjt2da86ca8&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=p?]133|200[/hv]

 

I am posting out of curiosity --- if this likely to be strongly in favour of one option.

[Cyberyeti]

This hand screams that it's at least a 22 count not 21. When I made that evaluation I checked on K&R and that said 22.5, I might even upgrade if playing 20-22. I don't think it's close playing 20-21.

[LBengtsson]

2♣ with Kokish cover all the bases. It's to strong for 2NT 20-21 as main suit is ♥akjtx and three aces in hand.

[Douglas43]

I'm with the others, 2C on these methods. I might settle for 2NT if it was 20-22 but agree with Cyberyeti that it is close to an upgrade even then, certainly worth breaking the transfer if partner bid 3H.

[Cyberyeti]

I'm with the others, 2C on these methods. I might settle for 2NT if it was 20-22 but agree with Cyberyeti that it is close to an upgrade even then, certainly worth breaking the transfer if partner bid 3H.

 

We actually routinely break the transfer with this shape with Hxx in the suit transferred to and HHxxx in our suit (H=AKQ) by bidding our suit, using 3N and 4(partner's suit) to show the 4 card raises min/max.

[apollo1201]

This is not a 20-21 count. Repeat: this is not a 20-21 count. Repeat: this is not...

 

So an obvious 2C. Idk how you continue after that, if 2H shows a GF or not, a 6-carder or 5, if you play Puppet over 2NT...but I guess you know how to handle. But 20-21 is not the proper description of the hand, for sure.

 

With partner, 2C is not GF, so I could really hesitate between 2H since the suit is so good with 100 honors, or 2NT for the balanced shape and ease of follow-ups (especially having 3-cd S), even w/o Puppet. Urgh...I just convinced myself to rebid NTs.

[Douglas43]

We actually routinely break the transfer with this shape with Hxx in the suit transferred to and HHxxx in our suit (H=AKQ) by bidding our suit, using 3N and 4(partner's suit) to show the 4 card raises min/max.

 

Thanks Cyberyeti, interesting point. I normally just cue bid but can see the merits of breaking to our HHxxx suit.

[blackshoe]

Hm. We are enjoined to "assume natural bidding", and yet asked to choose between a natural 2NT bid and a presumably artificial 2♣ bid. Why aren't 100% of the choices for 2NT then? (For the record I chose 2♣ because I don't believe "assume natural bidding" actually means what it says).

[Tramticket]

I agree with the comments above, this hand is worth more than 21-22 - particularly in a suit contract. K&R is much more accurate for suit contracts.

 

But, imagine if partner doesn't have a spade fit, but does have a random three-count - 3NT still needs a good lie of the cards. I wish my 2NT were 21-22, but if playing OP methods, it is close.

[Cyberyeti]

I agree with the comments above, this hand is worth more than 21-22 - particularly in a suit contract. K&R is much more accurate for suit contracts.

 

But, imagine if partner doesn't have a spade fit, but does have a random three-count - 3NT still needs a good lie of the cards. I wish my 2NT were 21-22, but if playing OP methods, it is close.

 

The problem is that 20-21 is 20 much more often than 21, you're not bidding game on average 4s or even some horrid 5s

[morecharac]

What a lousy hand; it seems designed to ruin any system variation of Standard American.

 

2NT on losing trick count (LTC 5) alone. I prefer LTC 4 or better for 2♣. This one rates more like 18-19 HCP.

 

2♣ does leave the 2♥ double negative open. 2♣-2♥-Pass, probably the best contract opposite a total bust.

 

And partner hates five-card majors for any NT opening, so there's another complication.

 

I hope I never get this hand.

 

(Best-case scenario with this hand is to be in fourth seat and open a 15-20 2♥.)

[johnu]

And partner hates five-card majors for any NT opening, so there's another complication.

Get another partner :) or try to educate the one you've got.

[johnu]

(Best-case scenario with this hand is to be in fourth seat and open a 15-20 2♥.)

Yikes :o

[Douglas43]

"And partner hates five-card majors for any NT opening, so there's another complication."

I'm not a huge fan of 5cM in 1NT (playing 12-14) unless it's a poor suit. But I've opened 2NT with a 6 card major before now. For a start, you have 5 card stayman available

[shyams]

So for the sake of completeness,

 

I was playing with the robot. I was South and the N/S hands were:

[hv=pc=n&s=skq7hakjt2da86ca8&n=sjt84h876dj543cj6]133|200[/hv]

 

I absentmindedly clicked 2NT, then cursed softly to myself, opened another tab on the browser, and created this post even as the tournament (hourly "Free Robot duplicate") was underway.

 

The bot indeed passed 2NT and I played there to make an overtrick. 4♥ makes with little effort because the trump Queen was doubleton.

[Cyberyeti]

So for the sake of completeness,

 

I was playing with the robot. I was South and the N/S hands were:

[hv=pc=n&s=skq7hakjt2da86ca8&n=sjt84h876dj543cj6]133|200[/hv]

 

I absentmindedly clicked 2NT, then cursed softly to myself, opened another tab on the browser, and created this post even as the tournament (hourly "Free Robot duplicate") was underway.

 

The bot indeed passed 2NT and I played there to make an overtrick. 4♥ makes with little effort because the trump Queen was doubleton.

 

4♥ is awful, it needs a lot more than that, if the ♠A is ducked till the 3rd round you have 4 losers barring ♦KQ tight. I'm not even sure I move opposite 22-23 with the N hand. 2N is horrible on a club lead if the ♥Q doesn't drop (or even if it does and clubs are 6-3). The best spot available given that you're starting at 2N is 3♥ which you're only going to reach if N uses 5 card stayman over 2♣-2♦/♥-2N intending to bid game in spades if you have 5 of those but pass 3♥.

[smerriman]

On top of not wanting to be in 4♥, you won't even end up there with GIB if you open 2♣ anyway; you'll end up in 3NT (unless you make a terrible 2♥ rebid), which is even worse.

 

Would still open 2♣, but the end result is that you got lucky, rather than punished.

[thepossum]

My first inclination was 1 heart but it wasnt an option

 

EDIT A little sim gives mean tricks 10.5 and chance of game around 77% - but it does have a rather large variance

 

If you add in that North hand, chance of game drops to around 12%

[shyams]

On top of not wanting to be in 4♥, you won't even end up there with GIB if you open 2♣ anyway; you'll end up in 3NT (unless you make a terrible 2♥ rebid), which is even worse.

 

Would still open 2♣, but the end result is that you got lucky, rather than punished.

 

I went back and looked at the traveller for this board. You are right that all the pairs that reached 4♥ had South rebid 2♥ which I too would never have thought of as my rebid. The one unfortunate player who correctly rebid 2NT (after 2♣-2♦) was in the miserable contract of 3NT and scored worse than me.

 

I now agree that I got lucky by opening 2NT.

[morecharac]

Yikes :o

Why yikes? We have the Sir Robin 2NT available when responder has some reason to avoid 2♠ or passing 2♥.

[Cyberyeti]

Why yikes? We have the Sir Robin 2NT available when responder has some reason to avoid 2♠ or passing 2♥.

 

Because this hand is WAY too good for a 15-20 2♥.

 

Modified LTC with 3 aces and one queen suggests it's 4 losers anyway.

 

Axx(x), xxx, xx xxxx(x) (or same shapes with ♠J and a minor king) is not much of a hand, but plenty to want to be in 4♥.