Law of Similarity?

[Lovera]

The correct rule on guessing queens is that LHO (who was on opening lead) has it, because that's why they didn't lead the suit.

 

In fact it is so and the Law of Symmetry applies perfectly (it can also be read in another way). What Crane's recounted seems to refine what was said in Simon's book, namely that an imperfect shuffling leads to attributing the Queen over the Knave. However, to have a perfect shuffling it is necessary to use the so-called "American" cutting method seven consecutive times.

[bluenikki]

Yes

 

It is trivial to demonstrate that this is complete nonsense for either

 

A. Computer dealt hands or

B. Hands that a hand shuffled in "good" manner

 

It is possible that there is some truth for this for hands that are manually shuffled using some "poor" technique. The problem here is that almost any claim is consistent with bad shuffling.

 

The only way to really analyze this is to collect all sorts of data about hands that are manually shuffled in bridge clubs and use this to test the hypothesis. There was a data set that got posted a few months back from one bridge club in the Netherlands. As I recall, it didn't show anything particularly interesting.

 

 

 

The issue here is not the complexity of the game, but rather the availability of the data

 

Easley Blackwood had a theory that if the declaring side had a singleton, the defending side was likely to have one. Mainly this was applied to 9-card fits.

 

He claimed that he had researched all published world championship deals. When computer dealing was in effect, the rule failed. But he claimed that when manual dealing was employed,it worked.

 

Carl