Play problem

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=&s=SKQHK32DAJ854CJT5&n=SA5432HQDQ7CAK432&d=S&v=0&a=3nppp&p=H7HQH6H2DQDTD4DKC9CKC7C5S2SJSKS6SQH5S3S7CJC8CAC6SAS8CTHJ]399|300|

Mike Ribbins posed this declarer play problem.

You are declarer in 3NT on a small ♥ lead.

Please click Next to see a possible line of play.

What now?

Would you have played differently?[/hv]

[Cyberyeti]

It appears you play the ♦7 overtaking with the 8 whether E follows small or discards, otherwise W can duck and maroon you in dummy. You can almost certainly play high if E plays low on the diamond giving you overtrick chances, but most likely they discard so you have to either play the 8 or the ace and then a low one. The thing you mustn't do is run the 7.

[mikeh]

In real life, we’d know a lot more than we’re given here, even if only by ‘negative’ information

 

Can west hold x AJxxxx Kxx xx? Maybe he had a chance to bid and did not, suggesting that he doesn’t have 6 hearts.

 

Can he be 1=5=4=3 with 10 hcp? Again, the auction(including pass by him) might help us with that possibility

 

Anyway, doing the best I can with none of the information and inferences available when actually playing bridge:

 

West is one of 1633, 1642, 1543, or 1552.

 

I don’t place a lot of weight on his club plays. Again, lacking the auction handicaps us in drawing inferences but west might choose a club from Q98. On balance, I tend to doubt that. Had we, say, Jxx, we might have no choice but to duck.

 

So if I infer that east has the club Queen, and I do, I have to lead the diamond 7.

 

If east plays the 9, I am cold.

 

If he shows out, I know the hand well: west was 1=5=5=2. I insert the 8. West is endplayed if he wins the trick. A diamond away from his 632 gives me 3 diamonds, and a heart concedes a trick as well.

 

If east shows in with a diamond lower than the 7, I win the AJ.

 

It is very unlikely that west was 1=6=3=3 but, if he was, my diamonds run, so long as I don’t make the mistake of inserting the 8. West could win, cash the club, squeezing me, and exit a diamond.

 

Anyway, if west has only 3 diamonds, cashing the AJ brings the suit in. And if, as I suspect, he has 1=5=4=2, I simply exit a diamond, endplaying him. It does him no good to unblock to avoid the endplaying.

[gszes]

This is driving me batty. I mentally concocted a LOP then read the comments. I am convinced that both Cyberyeti and MikeH are spot on (as usual) in their opinions on how to continue the presented LOP. My concern is I see no strong evidence that LHO has more than 5 hearts so there is no huge disparity in open spaces between the two hands. IMHO we seem to be better served by trying to set up spades first and if we find Lho is short in spades we can belatedly attack diamonds just as effectively later in the hand.

 

trick 2 spade to K

trick 3 spade Q (lho showing out (rats was hoping for 33 or 42 with lho for 4/5 spades 1h 2c 2d or 4 spades 2h 2c 1d)

trick 4 club to A (I hear there is a 40% chance the Q will drop though I cannot vouch for ever seeing it happen in MY favor).

trick 5 club K (sigh as usual)

trick 6 spade A (pitch useless club)

trick 7 dia Q and the hand appears to be over since we would be happy with 3s 2c 2h 2d or 3s 2c 1h 3d.

 

I was unhappy with the proposed LOP mainly because it ignored the rather strong minority chance LHO might have started with 4 spades. This works even if lho began with 1543/1633 since lho cannot squeeze my hand by cashing the club Q after winning the dia K. STAY WELL