Question for the brains trust

[thepossum]

Hi all

Recent MPs for some reason this was worth 91% and I have no idea why. What I did right, or didnt do wrong. What other did wrong etc

 

I've put it through a double dummy player, my hand and those who made much less than 91% and I don't get it

 

My first two leads seemed obvious, and as far as I can see my discards after that were obvious etc

 

These things are important to me because after all these years I am still missing something

 

Note. It has nothing to do with my 2D bid. Most people doubled etc

 

[hv=https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|thepossum,~Mwest,~Mnorth,~Meast|md|4SJHAK97DAT742CJ86,S9765H2DKQJ83CA92,S3HQT543D965CQ543,SAKQT842HJ86DCKT7|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%202|mb|1S|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|2D|an|Two-level%20overcall%20--%205+%20!D;%2010+%20HCP;%2011-18%20total%20points|mb|3D|an|Cue:%20limit%20raise%20or%20better%20--%203+%20!S;%2011+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|4S|an|5+%20!S;%2015-17%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|HK|pc|H2|pc|H3|pc|H8|pc|SJ|pc|S5|pc|S3|pc|SQ|pc|H6|pc|H7|pc|S7|pc|H4|pc|D3|pc|D6|pc|S4|pc|D2|pc|S2|pc|D4|pc|S9|pc|C5|pc|D8|pc|D5|pc|SK|pc|D7|pc|HJ|pc|H9|pc|C2|pc|HQ|pc|C4|pc|C7|pc|CJ|pc|CA|pc|C9|pc|C3|pc|CK|pc|C6|pc|CT|pc|C8|pc|S6|pc|CQ|pc|DK|pc|D9|pc|SA|pc|DT|pc|ST|pc|DA|pc|DJ|pc|HT|pc|S8|pc|HA|pc|DQ|pc|H5|]400|300[[/hv]

 

regards a constantly bemused Possum

[paulg]

I expect you scored 91% because you never tried to cash your ace of diamonds.

 

There is some danger that declarer is 6412 or 6421, or 7312/7321, with good club honours, where the failure to cash the ace of diamonds means that you will lose it or miss the opportunity for a ruff. In real life you'd hope that partner's signal might help but I don't know if the robots play suit preference with as singleton in dummy.

 

At IMPs, trying to defeat the contract I think the ace of diamonds is right. At matchpoints, it is more of a toss up.

[thepossum]

I expect you scored 91% because you never tried to cash your ace of diamonds.

 

There is some danger that declarer is 6412 or 6421, or 7312/7321, with good club honours, where the failure to cash the ace of diamonds means that you will lose it or miss the opportunity for a ruff. In real life you'd hope that partner's signal might help but I don't know if the robots play suit preference with as singleton in dummy.

 

At IMPs, trying to defeat the contract I think the ace of diamonds is right. At matchpoints, it is more of a toss up.

 

Thx. I still cant work it out. Most of the hands led the same two leads, heart followed by a trump etc I'm still trying to work out how I (and a few) made an extra trick :(

[Douglas43]

After a top heart lead, seeing that dummy it's quite tempting to switch to a club from south, hoping partner had the King. I probably would. That would be right if declarer had Qxx in clubs or Qx in clubs and a singleton diamond, and would do no harm if the 10 was with North. But here it blows a trick. Well done for avoiding it.

[Douglas43]

Also the robot seems to have played you for QJ doubleton in clubs!

[Cyberyeti]

Also the robot seems to have played you for QJ doubleton in clubs!

Not exactly, they should be playing you for ♣QJ and ♦A to try to go for the squeeze, which shouldn't work.

[AL78]

A 12th trick will be made if South tries to cash the diamond ace or South leads a club at trick two and declarer guesses correctly on the second round of the suit. Without that help, declarer is held to 11 tricks. The likely reason you got 91% is because most defenders gave declarer the 12th trick by one of these methods.

[Douglas43]

I was wrong, but the play is much odder than that, I see what you mean about playing for a squeeze but the robot didn't. Please have a look at tricks 5 to 7 and see if you can make sense of them?

[Cyberyeti]

I was wrong, but the play is much odder than that, I see what you mean about playing for a squeeze but the robot didn't. Please have a look at tricks 5 to 7 and see if you can make sense of them?

 

I did and they made no sense, it simply accepted it had a club loser and chose to lose a heart instead

[smerriman]

Note. It has nothing to do with my 2D bid. Most people doubled etc

Well, if most people bid differently to you, then GIB will regularly take a different line, so it's quite possible the difference *was* due to your 2♦ bid (even if that bid should be completely irrelevant; you know how weird GIB is in this area).

 

But it's hard to know why other tables were different without seeing what other tables actually did. If "most" tables made exactly the same first two leads against 4♠, then 91% should be impossible, but the reason should be straightforward if you can show one of those tables that got a different result after that start.

 

Perhaps against those who doubled, East did play for the squeeze. After ruffing out the hearts, it ran trumps, and South came down to the ace of diamonds and J8 of clubs. East then leads a low club, and South mistakenly plays the jack to 'force out the ace', throwing away the club trick.

 

But it seems that a significant enough chunk of players would lead a club or diamond at trick 2 as others have mentioned.

[thepossum]

Thx everyone. I appreciate the explanations. I often find it difficult finding the specific line that led to a trick difference because you can make an error and get the trick given back. When I mentioned the bidding I had already checked enough hands to see that wasn't the issue. Most who gave an extra trick led a minor at trick two but some exited with a trump etc. Just hard to find the specific thing I did right or not wrong or the total random play somewhere

[smerriman]

When I mentioned the bidding I had already checked enough hands to see that wasn't the issue.

Well, you also said most people made the same trump lead at trick 2, then changed that to most leading a minor, so one of those two was likely to be wrong :)

 

Would still be interested to see one of the lines that gave away an extra trick even after leading the trump though. Do you have the traveller link?

[thepossum]

Hi

 

Here is the link. There were a huge number of hands so I just kept taking a few samples to try and spot what was going on

 

Possum's Traveller

 

One thing I noticed is that I tend to be a very modal player (either the main mode or a second mode) on most hands these days

[smerriman]

Alright - there aren't any examples in there of someone who led a trump at trick 2 and took less tricks, so it must have simply come down to the straightforward explanation of leading a minor after all.

[thepossum]

Alright - there aren't any examples in there of someone who led a trump at trick 2 and took less tricks, so it must have simply come down to the straightforward explanation of leading a minor after all.

 

I did find a few - as a I said there are many hands :)

 

But, it does seem the most obvious explanation - albeit not real helping me understand my choice of line and any apparent superiority

[AL78]

I didn't realise it was possible to see the play of the hand at other tables. How is this done?

[paulg]

I didn't realise it was possible to see the play of the hand at other tables. How is this done?

Look at your results in Myhands (https://www.bridgebase.com/myhands/index.php) and every board has a traveller option.

[AL78]

Look at your results in Myhands (https://www.bridgebase.com/myhands/index.php) and every board has a traveller option.

 

Thanks very much.

[pescetom]

Beware also that traveller is handled rather quirkily in terms of browser tabs.

Whereas 'movie' will open in a new tab, 'traveller' will cannibalise the current tab, unless you explicitly 'open link in new tab'... and if you do that, then 'movie' will open in a new window.