Repost: How dangerous is it?

[Winstonm]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sj876432hjd876ck9]133|100|Scoring: IMP

I am dumb; I didn't notice the first post had partner as a passed hand. He is not. The auction:

1C-P-1H-P

2H-?

 

Does this alter your choices?

 

Again, sorry for the goof.[/hv]

[mike777]

I still bid 2s the first time and get this hand off my chest. Why pass, I do not want to play the hand in some other suit do I?

[Winstonm]

My thinking on this type hand, and it could be totally wrong, is that on this auction and looking at my hand it is a dead certainty that partner will not have the kind of hand to balance after 1C-P-1H-P-2H-P-P-?

 

IMO, the risk of going off -800 or -1100 is A) not all that great, and worth the slight risk. Obviously, risking -800 verses -110/-140 is suicidal on one board, but my thinking is that this one risk covers many, many boards, and the "hidden" losses of 4-6 imps by not competing over time will make aggressive action pay in the long run.

 

I know for me when I have an 8 or 9 card fit I never seem to get rich doubling the opponents at the 2-level , so I would not expect to be doubled more than 5% of the time. Out of 100 hands, that leaves 95 hands where my action may either push them 1 higher where we can go plus or find a partscore of our own and go plus. We lose on average 12 imps 5 times, but even if our bid only works out as a postive 20% of the rest of the time, that is 19 hands where we go plus. With an average expected win of 5 imps on these hands, we have a positive imp position of +95 verses losses of -60 for a net gain of +35 imps. If the assumption is correct that 5% of the time or less we lose on average 800, it only requires 15% of the remaining hands to show a postive result to break even, assuming an average gain of 5 imps.

 

Again, it is my thinking that I question; am I totally skewed in this regard; am I on the right lines but too aggressive; or is this pretty close to right?

 

With all the bright minds on the Forum, I respect each and every opinion and thank you all in advance for any your input.

 

WinstonM

[Guest Jlall]

still bid 1S the first time and 2S now

[luke warm]

i'd bid 2s with fear on my first opportunity, and forever shut up

[whereagles]

Hum.. LHO hasn't passed initially, so he will know whether to bid game or not. If we want to try for a save, now is the time. 3♠ seems fair. Hopefully pard will understand we have a long weak suit because we didn't overcall 1st round.