How dangerous is it?

[Winstonm]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sj876532hjd876ck9]133|100|Scoring: IMP

You pick up this glorious holding and here the following acution:

P-P-1C-P

1H-P-2H-?

 

Do you act? How dangerous or not is it to bid 2S in your opinion? What does a pass risk? At imps, with a fit, how often do you think the opps might stop and double over 100 deals?

 

Thanks for your input.

[/hv]

[whereagles]

The risk of being doubled is about 0.01%. The risk of being doubled AND getting a bad score from it is about 0.00000000000000000000001%.

 

HOWEVER, the risk of bidding 2/3♠ and luring opps into a making 4♥ is rather high, so you should pass and hope opps won't move above partscore. If they do end up bidding, then you might try 4♠.

[pbleighton]

"HOWEVER, the risk of bidding 2/3♠ and luring opps into a making 4♥ is rather high, so you should pass and hope opps won't move above partscore. If they do end up bidding, then you might try 4♠."

 

Agree. I would have bid 2S the first time, though.

 

Peter

[inquiry]

Its imps and you are vul. Pass the first time, pass the second. Preemptive overcalls and OBAR be damned. Besides, didn't you hear your partner's initial pass? Don't be a hero and try to find a magic 4♠ save against 4♥ down only one (-200) versus their makable game (-450). This is a wait to fight another day hand.

[joker_gib]

Its imps and you are vul. Pass the first time, pass the second. Preemptive overcalls and OBAR be damned. Besides, didn't you hear your partner's initial pass? Don't be a hero and try to find a magic 4♠ save against 4♥ down only one (-200) versus their makable game (-450). This is a wait to fight another day hand.

I totally agree with Ben and I'll add :

 

If you want to take action, take it directly and don't wait that opps have already exchanged informations because it will be far easier for them to punish you !

 

Alain

[Guest Jlall]

I would overcall 1S with this hand. If we have a spade fit its not hard to imagine a game, it has very little risk (main one being getting partner off to a bad lead, but what would be a GOOD lead from our point of view?) at all, and we could compete for the partscore even if we don't have a game. Having not overcalled 1S, I would bid 2S now for the same reasons, except im more likely to go for a number now. It could still easily be our partscore, or we could just push them to 3H.

[Fluffy]

The danger of bidding 2♠ is being raised for -1100.

[flytoox]

HOWEVER, the risk of bidding 2/3♠ and luring opps into a making 4♥ is rather high, so you should pass and hope opps won't move above partscore. If they do end up bidding, then you might try 4♠.

I dont think this is very likely. LHO is a passed hand. Furthermore, your CK is a good card, and hearts breaks badly for them.

[Guest Jlall]

The danger of bidding 2♠ is being raised for -1100.

If I didn't overcall the first time, and now bid partner should work out I have nothing (indeed I WOULD have overcalled this hand). If he RAISES me, we have 10+ trumps AND partner knows i have nothing, I dont think we will go for 1100.

[whereagles]

HOWEVER, the risk of bidding 2/3♠ and luring opps into a making 4♥ is rather high, so you should pass and hope opps won't move above partscore. If they do end up bidding, then you might try 4♠.

I dont think this is very likely. LHO is a passed hand. Furthermore, your CK is a good card, and hearts breaks badly for them.

Well, pard has also passed. I'll take 1 trick with this hand if I'm lucky. I really don't see how pard, who will at best have 11 hcp, can contribute with 3 defensive tricks, even if he holds Qxxx of hearts.

[cherdano]

Hmm. If my partner would bid 2♠ here, I would infer a 4-card suit (why else didn't he bid 1♠ first round) with another place to play, and so would correct to 3♦ with 2-3 spades and 4-5 diamonds (double would be takeout of hearts).

 

Even if that is not the case, I think the chance is pretty high that I might get doubled in 2♠ when opponents are right to do so. They have found their fit, and will X to show extra strength without extra distribution; at these colors, passing gets attractive for them. I wonder if a direct 3♠ is less dangerous (and has more to gain)...

 

Arend

[luis]

I'd bid 2♠ at the first turn, showing a weak hand with spades which is exactly what I have, passing and then bidding only increase the risk of being doubled for a number.

ABout 2♠ vulnerable Marty Bergen once said "Colors are for kids"

 

Luis

[Winstonm]

My thinking on this type hand, and it could be totally wrong, is that on this auction and looking at my hand it is a dead certainty that partner will not have the kind of hand to balance after 1C-P-1H-P-2H-P-P-?

 

IMO, the risk of going off -800 or -1100 is A) not all that great, and B) worth the slight risk. Obviously, risking -800 verses -110/-140 is suicidal on one board, but my thinking is that this one risk covers many, many boards, and the "hidden" losses of 4-6 imps by not competing over time will make aggressive action pay in the long run.

 

I know for me when I have an 8 or 9 card fit I never seem to get rich doubling the opponents at the 2-level , so I would not expect to be doubled more than 5% of the time. Out of 100 hands, that leaves 95 hands where my action may either push them 1 higher where we can go plus or find a partscore of our own and go plus. We lose on average 12 imps 5 times, but even if our bid only works out as a postive 20% of the rest of the time, that is 19 hands where we go plus. With an average expected win of 5 imps on these hands, we have a positive imp position of +95 verses losses of -60 for a net gain of +35 imps. If the assumption is correct that 5% of the time or less we lose on average 800, it only requires 15% of the remaining hands to show a postive result to break even, assuming an average gain of 5 imps.

 

Again, it is my thinking that I question; am I totally skewed in this regard; am I on the right lines but too aggressive; or is this pretty close to right?

 

With all the bright minds on the Forum, I respect each and every opinion and thank you all in advance for any your input.

 

WinstonM

[inquiry]

Well, how aggressive is your partner? Mine will open almost any 11 count, so we are looking a combined total for us of 16 at most, and that includes the heart jack. So they have 24 at a minimum, I suspect WEST has an opening or near opening hand and will make another call here. I suspect they both have extras.

 

If you want to bid, it is FAR better to bid 1♠ immediately and be done with the auction. Now West with 4441 will double your 2♠ (optional after they found a fit) and you may be down way too much.

 

In addition, just because they have an 8 card heart fit, that doesn't mean you have a spade fit. Partenr can easily be 1-4-4-4 with singlton spade, for instance, or even 0-4-4-5 with a void. Against this, it is remotely possible, partner can be Axxxx xxxx x xxx and you can scamper home with 7S, 1C, 2D ruffs for ten tricks, but don't you think they might bid something over 5S like 6C, 6D, or 5/6H, losing just a club except on a diamond lead? One can construct such hands, which is why 1♠ iniitaillly is ok (but not 2♠ initially at this vul), Bidding now is just too darn late.

 

Also, we know partner can't have that hand, because they would not bidding 2H here, partner is marked with around 10 points, and if you open light with distributional hands (ZAR point people), he is probably balanced or lacks controls (for instance Axxx xxxx AQxxx x would be an opening bid for my partner).

 

Finally, there is the risk your partner will take this delayed 2♠ bid as spades plus diamonds and bid some number of diamonds, or may take a sac agaisnt 4♥ that goes down due your king of clubs and the jack of hearts which promotes something in your partners hands. Or it might get him off to a disaster lead of spade King from spade from Kx. Too many minuses for me at this vul at imps.

 

Ben

[keylime]

If you're going to bid, do it initially, because some might think you've passed then bid to show a GREAT hand!