Would you make it?

[Fluffy]

This is the last round of a team event, going second and playng against first, after a couple bad boards (including a vulnerable 3NT posted on another section that you might had beated but didn't) you are really desesperate for a swing, hat's why you end up playing this slam:

 

 

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=skj105hda10962ca743&s=sa83ha964d43ckq108]133|200|Scoring: IMP

N - S

1♦-1♥

1♠-2♣

3♣-4♣

4♦-4♥

4♠-6♣[/hv]

 

♣2 lead

 

Bidding is not good (in fact 3NT and even 5♣ aren't very much better contracts), but the slam is not as bad (I think it could rate above a Roland's one, am I right?). In fact it will be cold if you find the line :P . How do you play?.

[Guest Jlall]

duck a diamond, plan on ruffing out diamonds and guessing spades.

[Winstonm]

There are two basic lines I believe. One is to take an immediate spade finesse - but from what I can see down the line this will always require a future 3/3 diamond break in order to work. Seems better to adopt Justin's line and just duck a diamond - this gives you chances when the diamonds are either 3/3 or 4/2 with the additional chance of guessing the spade queen.

 

Winstonm

[Fluffy]

those lines require ♠ finese even when ♦ are 3-3, don't they?

[luis]

I'd play a Spade to the J, If this wins good if it loses then we still have some chances...

[Fluffy]

some chances?, mmmm, even if East has 4333 he will return a trump and I don't see how would you make it.

[PMetsch]

I try:

1 take club lead in hand

2 ruff a heart

3 duck a diamond

4 say defender returns trump, take with ace

5 spade to ace

6 ruff a heart

7 ace of diamonds

8 diamonds ruff

 

if diamonds break, I have 2spades, 1heart, 3diamonds, 3clubs and 3ruffs

 

if diamonds don't break

9 draw last trump (discarding diamond)

10 ace of hearts (discarding diamond)

11 spade finesse

 

if spade finesse holds and spades 3-3, I have 4spades, 1heart, 1diamond, 3clubs and 3ruffs

 

I think this play is somewhat over 50% with reasonable breaks in diamonds and clubs

[Fluffy]

PMetsch got the initial start very good, but he bypassed 1 thing, you don't need to waste ♠A to score second ♥ ruff on some cases, that is when WEST wins the ♦ and returns a trump.

 

Lets count your tricks, you must have 4 trumps in your hand, 1♥, 1♦, 2♠ makes it 8. If you score 2 ♥ ruffs you will only need 2 more trticks, and 2 more trticks can come EITHER by ♦3-3 or ♠ finese, perfect timing is required for trying these (and in fact perfect defence won't let you try both on some circumstances)

 

First of all (I think) you should promote your ♣10 winning, playing low ♣ from dummy, and ruff a ♥, next exit with a low ♦ from dummy.

 

There are 2 options after these:

 

If opponents play a trump win in hand, ruff a ♥ with ♣A, ruff a ♦ with the 8 (danger of overruff if East played the trump and the 8 is not good yet) draw trumps and either claim or try ♠ finese, retaining ♠A for having 2 fineses.

 

If opponents play a ♦ you ruff a ♦ in hand (might need to guess ruffing ow or high), ruff a ♥ with Ace or low depending on how you ruffed, draw trrumps and try spades.

 

[hv=n=skj10xhda109xxca7xx&w=sqxxhqxxxxdkjc9xx&e=sxxxhkj10xdqxxxcjx&s=saxxha9xxdxxckq108]399|300|[/hv]

 

As you can see West s forced to win the ♦, in real life he exited with a trump making it easy after winning the 8, had he exited with ♦K, a guess would be needed on next trick after a ♦ is played from dummy.