What is the least bad opening lead ?

[NemoJames]

I had this unusual situation recently where I had to decide what was the least bad opening lead. I am West with this hand

 

♠ KJTxxx

♦ Axx

♣ Kx

♥ xx

 

S - 2♣--- 3♥

W - 2♠--- Pass

N - Pass----- Pass

E - Pass---- 4♥

 

 

I know there is only a very slim chance of setting this contract or avoiding overtricks and it seems to me that the only hope is my partner has a void in spades. The other slim chance is if my partner has an honour and if I lead anything but spades to declarer that honour will be worthless. What would you lead?

[shyams]

[hv=pc=n&w=skjt432h32da32ck2&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=2c2spp3hp4hppp]133|200[/hv]

 

At MPs, any lead other than a trump is risky enough in that it might give declarer an undeserved extra trick. So I lead a low trump.

 

PS: People tend to read hands in the order ♠ then ♥ then ♦ and finally ♣. Using any other order for suits is likely to cause confusion.

[FelicityR]

Just think about the situation for a second. The opponents have opened 2♣, you have 11 HCPs, what have the other two hands? Answer: Very little. Finding partner with a void in ♠s is a complete longshot. Even if declarer has ♠AQx(x), partner will then have to decide what minor suit to play back to obtain another ruff, if another ruff exists. Effectively partner is ruffing a loser.

 

Obviously there is the dangerous scenario where declarer runs the ♥ suit on any other lead (such as a trump) and endplays you in ♠s but you don't know that yet. For all you know declarer might have ♠AQ doubleton and leading a ♠ automatically presents declarer with his/her tenth trick.

 

So when you have cards in the other three suits, a trump lead normally works out best. You might also destroy a ruffing value in dummy by doing this, too. Occasionally it could be a disaster if partner has ♥Qxx presenting declarer with a free finesse if dummy doesn't have any outside entry, but I feel that leading a ♠ as opposed to a ♥ is more likely to present declarer with a free trick on the balance of probabilities.

[AL78]

I agree with FelicityR. This does not look like a situation where declarer will draw trumps then run a side suit throwing losers, so if your honor cards are winners, they are not going anywhere. I'd lead a heart and decide how to defend based on what comes down in dummy, as passive as possible looks best initially.

[NemoJames]

I remember my teacher telling me that the priority is always to try and set the contract even if involves greater risk. Leading a ♥ guarantees the contract will succeed. I realise my partner being void is a long-shot but it offers the only chance of setting the contract. If partner is void and trumps the first trick, there is a 50% chance they return a ♦ and the contract fails. However, I can see that being match points makes all the difference and that the risk of an extra overtrick might be too high.

 

Ironically, all tables made +1 except one table that went down against an opening lead of K♣ by a beginner.

[Stephen Tu]

I remember my teacher telling me that the priority is always to try and set the contract even if involves greater risk.

Only at IMPs, definitely not at MP.

 

Leading a ♥ guarantees the contract will succeed.

Maybe it did on the actual deal, but certainly not as a general rule on all deals. Certainly there are hands where going passive allows you to score all 3 potential tricks, and maybe you get a 2nd spade or somehow your minor suit holdings combine with partner's for a 4th. Sometimes a trump lead and continued trumps on a subsequent round holds declarer to only 1 ruff in dummy when he actually needs two.

 

I realise my partner being void is a long-shot but it offers the only chance of setting the contract.

If you want to play partner for spade honor or void, certainly that's a possibility, but it's really against the odds compared to just handing declarer a trick with his AQ?? or say qx in dummy opposite ace.

 

However, I can see that being match points makes all the difference and that the risk of an extra overtrick might be too high.

Ironically, all tables made +1 except one table that went down against an opening lead of K♣ by a beginner.

Any lead can work on a particular day, the question is what lead works best on average. Computer sim suggests human intuition of forum is best, lead trump is best chance at both MP and IMP. Should have field protection as this should be a common lead, you'll probably get average minus at worst. Most often desperation lead of CK or spade will lead to much worse scores, far more often than tops.

[johnu]

[hv=pc=n&w=skjt432h32da32ck2&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=2c2spp3hp4hppp]133|200[/hv]

 

At MPs, any lead other than a trump is risky enough in that it might give declarer an undeserved extra trick. So I lead a low trump.

 

PS: People tend to read hands in the order ♠ then ♥ then ♦ and finally ♣. Using any other order for suits is likely to cause confusion.

Since there was no objection from OP, well done to have North bid 4♥ when post #1 has East bidding 4♥.

 

OP - Use the hand editor (spade symbol with vertical red lines) to enter cards and bidding. This makes entry errors much easier to see and correct.