Deal B8. Level 5.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=S6HQT9D987CJ98765&n=SK9HK543DKQJTCAK4&s=SAT5432HA2DA2CQ32&d=N&a=1DP1SP2NP3SP4CP6SPPP]400|300|Deal B8. Level 5. West leads ♦9 against South's 6♠. Bridge Master recommends: win ♦A and, immediately, finesse ♠9,. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Please help with the statistics but I feel that the recommendation is wrong. A. If East has 4♠, then he can return his ♣. Now, on this layout, declarer can succeed only by risking 3 rounds of a red suit to coup East's trumps. Declarer would have an easier time had he won dummy's ♠K and advanced ♠9. covered by ♠J and ♠A. Now, - If ♠s are 3-2, then declarer can claim but - if East shows out, then he can succeed, here, by cashing ♥KA, ruffing a ♥, crossing to ♣A, ruffing another ♥, then North's ♦KQJ coup East's trumps. [/hv][hv=pc=n&w=SQ876HQJTD9CJT9&n=SK9HK543DKQJTCAK4&s=SAT5432HA2DA2CQ32&d=N&a=1DP1SP2NP3SP4CP6SPPP]400|300|+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

B. If West has 4 ♠, then the recommended finesse of ♠9- Wins when RHO has has a small singleton (3 X 2.8%).- Loses when RHO has a singleton honour (2 X 2.8%).[/hv][hv=pc=n&w=S876HQJT9D9CJT987&n=SK9HK543DKQJTCAK4&s=SAT5432HA2DA2CQ32&d=N&a=1DP1SP2NP3SP4CP6SPPP]400|300|+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

C. If ♠ are 3-2, then the contract succeeds most of the time

but the recommended line also- Loses when East has a ♠ honour and

- 6 ♦s. (Is that 3.5%? or is it 1/6 that? i.e. is the ♦ pip significant) or

- West can ruff something else. [/hv][hv=pc=n&w=S876HQT9876D98CJT&n=SK9HK543DKQJTCAK4&s=SAT5432HA2DA2CQ32&d=N&a=1DP1SP2NP3SP4CP6SPPP]400|300|+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

D. Again, if If ♠ are 3-2, then the contract fails if East has a trump honour, South risks playing for a trump coup, and East can ruff a plain-suit that Declarer chooses to play.[/hv]