I overthought this declarer play - but should I?

[phoenixmj]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakj9hkqt82d92c86&n=s8652hadqj5ckqj32&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1d2cp2hp2sp4sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

West opened so I figured west four about 12 points. Our side has 26 points - leaving only 2 points unaccounted for. Should I take this bidding into account when decided how to play trump? East could have the queen, and normally I would finesse with no info - so curious to hear thoughts on this.

 

Opening lead was KD. West took AK diamonds and then led 3 H>

[johnu]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakj9hkqt82d92c86&n=s8652hadqj5ckqj32&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1d2cp2hp2sp4sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

West opened so I figured west four about 12 points. Our side has 26 points - leaving only 2 points unaccounted for. Should I take this bidding into account when decided how to play trump? East could have the queen, and normally I would finesse with no info - so curious to hear thoughts on this.

Is there an opening lead, or are you planning to claim your tricks before the opening lead?

[FelicityR]

If West cashes ♦AK and ♣A on the first three tricks - unlikely but it's possible - thinking that West then has ♠Qx alone and is now hoping for a fatal finesse to put the contract down is playing against the odds, I feel. The probability of East turning up with 2 HCPs as opposed to zero HCPs I would guess would be in the order of 20-1 in favour.

 

Any good player would try to delay the decision how to play the trump suit until a partial count of the hand could be made, and as johnu says, we need to know what cards have been played before making any decision.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakj9hkqt82d92c86&n=s8652hadqj5ckqj32&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1d2cp2hp2sp4sppp]266|200|

phoenixmj "West opened so I figured west four about 12 points. Our side has 26 points - leaving only 2 points unaccounted for. Should I take this bidding into account when decided how to play trump? East could have the queen, and normally I would finesse with no info - so curious to hear thoughts on this."

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

FWIW, I guess to play ♠AK.[/hv]

 

 

 

[phoenixmj]

Is there an opening lead, or are you planning to claim your tricks before the opening lead?

 

OPening lead was KD. West took AK of D and then led a low heart.

[sfi]

OPening lead was KD. West took AK of D and then led a low heart.

Winning the HA, playing a spade to the Ace and then leading a club looks normal at this point. If West ducks the trick, you can simply discard the club loser on the DQ. If not, their return may be helpful. You may even occasionally find out East has the CA and then you have no real option but to try and drop the SQ.

 

If they duck and the DQ is ruffed, you still have to guess trumps. But there's no layout where West would duck the club holding the SQ (nor would they be likely to duck if trumps are 4-1). So the finesse should be a lock at that point.

 

Even if West wins the CA and returns a club, you have ways to increase the information you have on the hand. You'll probably have a good guess on the club count on the clubs, so you can just lead the third diamond to see whether East follows.

 

Finally, West's tempo for their decisions may be revealing. It helps if you know your opponents though.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=ST74H3DAKT876CAT9&s=sakj9hkqt82d92c86&n=s8652hadqj5ckqj32&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1d2cp2hp2sp4sppp]300|300|

phoenixmj "West took AK of D and then led a low heart."

sfi "Even if West wins the CA and returns a club, you have ways to increase the information you have on the hand. You'll probably have a good guess on the club count on the clubs, so you can just lead the third diamond to see whether East follows".

 

 

++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Discovery plays can backfire. For example, West can recover from a misdefence when East ruffs ♦Q with ♠Q.[/hv]