The Crazy Ivan

[pilowsky]

The bidding problem:

Here is the original South hand. What's your call? KR (below) rates it at 25.45 or 26+

[hv=pc=n&s=saq5haktda842cakj]133|100[/hv]

The ending (mine anyway):

I just started reading about squeezes. Not a great topic during a pandemic. When this hand came up. I had reached a state of aporia when I thought of an old Tom Clancy novel (I apologise for having read it). The hero claims to have specific knowledge about a submarine manoeuvre called "the Crazy Ivan" where the boat Captain makes a random turn every 30 minutes. Having reached the following position, and with no apparent way out I decided to try it out by letting the West robot solve the problem for me.

Your lead from South to make 4 more tricks .

 

[hv=pc=n&s=shd842ckj&w=sh2djtcq2&n=st8hd96c7&e=Shdk7c543]399|300[/hv]

 

 

The pbn file https://tinyurl.com/y9ol5r64

 

The lin file https://tinyurl.com/ycxjxtx4

 

KR = https://tinyurl.com/yawn86hx

[nige1]

[hv=bbo=y&lin=ZZ%7C%7Cpn%7Cpilowsky%2CRobot%2CRobot%2CRobot%7Cst%7C%7Cmd%7C4SAQ5HAKTDA842CAKJ%2CS64H8542DQJTCQ862%2CSKT832HQJ6D963CT7%2CSJ97H973DK75C9543%7Csv%7CN%7Cah%7CBoard%202%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C2N%7Can%7CTwo%20NT%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%202-5%20%21H%3B%202-5%20%21S%3B%2020-21%20HCP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C3H%21%7Can%7CJacoby%20transfer%20--%205%2B%20%21S%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C4N%7Can%7CBlackwood%20%28H%29%20--%202-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%205-%20%21H%3B%202-5%20%21S%3B%2021-%20HCP%3B%20rebiddable%20%21H%3B%2026%2B%20total%20points%3B%20two%20stops%20in%20%21H%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C5C%7Can%7CZero%20or%20three%20key%20cards%20--%205%2B%20%21S%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C6S%7Can%7CSignoff%20--%202-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%205-%20%21H%3B%203-5%20%21S%3B%2021-%20HCP%3B%20rebiddable%20%21H%3B%2026%2B%20total%20points%3B%20two%20stops%20in%20%21H%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CH2%7C]]300|300| Pilowski "I just started reading about squeezes. Not a great topic during a pandemic. When this hand came up. I had reached a state of aporia when I thought of an old Tom Clancy novel (I apologise for having read it). The hero claims to have specific knowledge about a submarine manoeuvre called "the Crazy Ivan" where the boat Captain makes a random turn every 30 minutes. Having reached the following position, and with no apparent way out I decided to try it out by letting the West robot solve the problem for me. Your lead from South to make 4 more tricks

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I would open 2♣, intending to rebid notrump.

Not much harm in ducking the opening ♦ lead, hoping for a mistake or an unlikely squeeze; but a straightforward ♣ finesse is the best chance :( A priori, Pilowski's line seems hopeless but there is no arguing with its success :)[/hv]

[Winstonm]

[hv=bbo=y&lin=ZZ%7C%7Cpn%7Cpilowsky%2CRobot%2CRobot%2CRobot%7Cst%7C%7Cmd%7C4SAQ5HAKTDA842CAKJ%2CS64H8542DQJTCQ862%2CSKT832HQJ6D963CT7%2CSJ97H973DK75C9543%7Csv%7CN%7Cah%7CBoard%202%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C2N%7Can%7CTwo%20NT%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%202-5%20%21H%3B%202-5%20%21S%3B%2020-21%20HCP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C3H%21%7Can%7CJacoby%20transfer%20--%205%2B%20%21S%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C4N%7Can%7CBlackwood%20%28H%29%20--%202-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%205-%20%21H%3B%202-5%20%21S%3B%2021-%20HCP%3B%20rebiddable%20%21H%3B%2026%2B%20total%20points%3B%20two%20stops%20in%20%21H%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C5C%7Can%7CZero%20or%20three%20key%20cards%20--%205%2B%20%21S%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C6S%7Can%7CSignoff%20--%202-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%205-%20%21H%3B%203-5%20%21S%3B%2021-%20HCP%3B%20rebiddable%20%21H%3B%2026%2B%20total%20points%3B%20two%20stops%20in%20%21H%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CH2%7C]]300|300| Pilowski "I just started reading about squeezes. Not a great topic during a pandemic. When this hand came up. I had reached a state of aporia when I thought of an old Tom Clancy novel (I apologise for having read it). The hero claims to have specific knowledge about a submarine manoeuvre called "the Crazy Ivan" where the boat Captain makes a random turn every 30 minutes. Having reached the following position, and with no apparent way out I decided to try it out by letting the West robot solve the problem for me. Your lead from South to make 4 more tricks .

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I would open 2♣, intending to rebid notrump.

Not much harm in ducking the opening ♦ lead, hoping for an mistake or an unlikely squeeze but a straightforward ♣ finesse is the best chance :( A priori, Pilowski's line seems to be hopeless but there is no arguing with success :)[/hv]

 

As the squeeze would be automatic, it might not be so bad. How much worse than 50/50 is that?

[johnu]

Your lead from South to make 4 more tricks

I play ♣K and after West unblocks ♣Q I make 4 more tricks. Why would West unblock ♣Q? Because GIB is an highly advanced robot that doesn't make mistakes and avoided the endplay. Good play GIB. B-)

[nudnikbp]

3NT,showing 25-27.

[miamijd]

What would I bid with the Bots? Or what would I bid in real life?

 

With the bots, you can either open 2C and rebid 3NT or else just open 3NT. They both show 25-27.

 

In real life, Kokish relays handle this hand nicely. This is a 25 HCP hand, so go through the 2H relay and then bid 2NT (2C-2D-2H-2S-2NT), showing 24-25.

 

Cheers,

Mike

[dsLawsd]

I play ♣K and after West unblocks ♣Q I make 4 more tricks. Why would West unblock ♣Q? Because GIB is an highly advanced robot that doesn't make mistakes and avoided the endplay. Good play GIB. B-)

 

ZOUNDS!

[pilowsky]

FWIW, here is a link to the Traveller for that hand.

3NT is a reasonable choice, but to GIB it means that you have 25+ HCP. The chances that this could occur in an unbalanced hand AND your partner could have something juicy to offer are small, but mot impossible. I had such a hand at the Club "Christmas" event when my partner put down 6 spades and a marketable slam that 2 other tables made!

A transfer over 2NT does win the 2nd prize.

1st prize goes to 1 club ending in 6NT for 100% (don't ask me - they probably went to the Wharton Business School).

I'm mildly offended by the "playing against the Bots" line. I'm playing against real people. Interestingly I find that I do much better in some robot tourneys compared with others. At one point I was the best Bridge player in the whole of North America (there were 2 entrants at the time :) ). Different tourneys attract fields that have different levels of ability at playing the system that the robots play. Whatever you open, you still need to be able to plan ahead for whatever rebid you might have to make.

On balance 1 club gets the Stephen Bradbury award, followed by 2NT, 2C and 3NT. imho

[Douglas43]

No choice in UK, 3NT= AKQxxxx in a minor, which is more fun than 25-27 balanced. Sometimes it even works! But thanks for warning that the bots play 25-27.

[pilowsky]

Australia is multi-cultural, we have to be ready for anything. Even Acol in all its accents and dialects.