Bluff or Bluster

[Mr Dale]

I can't help remembering a similar hand in "Bridge in the menagerie", where East had a void in one suit and West in the other . The only lead to defeat the contract - King of Spades!

[lamford]

Jon Cooke, who is better than me at both poker and bridge, thinks that you should run because you have the king of spades. Game Theory for West is to make a bluff redouble some of the time, and most of the hands on which he would bluff contain the king of spades. His actual hand of ♠AQxxxx ♥none ♦KQTxxxx ♣none was normal, and he redoubled as he did not know if he was making Six Spades, but thought there was a good chance and you might run on some hands where you could take a diamond ruff. He has almost shown you his hand! He also thought that South should bid a "confident" 7H rather than double 6S. They always save at these colours ...

 

If you pass, then the ace of diamonds is a stand-out lead. But it doesn't work as diamonds are 7-2-2-2. And partner is x Qxxxxx xx Qxxx. And Jon thinks either of us could have set up a forcing pass, but chose not to do so. That ship has sailed.

[pigpenz]

the odds favor beating 6♠XX if it makes it makes thats bridge

[pigpenz]

ran this through a simulator.....even giving the cue bid hand a 6-6 hand and the responder to the heart opener 0-5 hcp, the percentages the one can make

6 spades is only about 1%, but yes I would lead k spades

[pigpenz]

ran this through a simulator.....even giving the cue bid hand a 6-6 hand and the responder to the heart opener 0-5 hcp, the percentages the one can make

6 spades is only about 1%, but yes I would lead k spades

 

ran it again doing 10000 hands with lead captain

if it makes 6 spades just not your day in the long run

you will come out ahead by passing, its statistics

 

the only thing I found different was that as the hand became 6-6 for cue bidder

the % for 6hearts making went down about 15 %, but the % for 6 spades making were still

almost nihil.

[Zelandakh]

ran it again doing 10000 hands with lead captain

Sims are meaningless unless you post the code behind them. If your code says that West will bid this way with any 6-6 then you are doing it wrong.

[msjennifer]

Sirs ,I shall never double 6S bid by opponents.Since the same has been xx and comes back I shall bid 7D and if opponents bid 7S I shall not double that too.I know that it will turn out 7S will be ice cold.There is the famous deal wherein we hold 35HCP missing only the Ace and Knave of Spades and opponents score a Cold 7S. It is unfortunate that the same has been duplicated and posted with some minor changes in the distribution of the remaining three suits in this column.

[lamford]

ran it again doing 10000 hands with lead captain

if it makes 6 spades just not your day in the long run

you will come out ahead by passing, its statistics

 

the only thing I found different was that as the hand became 6-6 for cue bidder

the % for 6hearts making went down about 15 %, but the % for 6 spades making were still

almost nihil.

I did a simulation for the actual hands they had AQxxxx none KQTxxxx none opposite Jxxxx Jxx Jx Txx, and I think you will agree with me that East was "jacking up" the auction with his eleven-loser 4S bid, and he could easily have a sixth spade. Slam is around 24%, requiring diamonds 2-2 or stiff ace, and spades 1-1. If you are looking at Axx of diamonds or Kx spades it would be reasonable to pass. If you think partner's pass of 6S is forcing, then they probably have twelve spades, and now partner is very unlikely to have a singleton diamond. And forget the 6-6 hands, only those with the king of spades would redouble.

[lamford]

Any reason we didn't bid 6♣ last time round? You know very well that this kind of auction is often decided by which team can first identify the degree of fit in the side suit.

I asked South and he said he didn't want West bidding 6♦. You know very well that this kind of auction is often decided by which team can first identify the degree of fit in the side suit.

[shyams]

I guess there are additional clues/reads available at the table which don't adequately get captured in a post here.

 

For example, did West redouble quickly/in tempo or was there a lengthy interval for deliberation? If the former, West is more likely to have the 6-0-7-0 akin to what nige1 posted early in the thread.

 

However, if there is a significant pause for calculation, it is not beyond the realm of a creative West to effect the redouble on ♠AQxxx ♥-- ♦KQJxxxx ♣x. South's bidding suggests that if East does not have the ♠K surely South has it. West could be hoping for either (a) East to have a void in diamonds (something like ♠Jxxxx ♥xxx ♦-- ♣Qxxxx) or (b) South to not stand the heat and bid the grand slam (which converts a small minus into a decent plus).

 

As an aside, the IMP table is also less forgiving for wild swings. If one NS makes a slam and the other goes down in a grand, it costs ~15 IMPs. If opps bid and make a slam at both tables, it costs ~21 IMPs. This too might play a role in West's actions.

[P_Marlowe]

I guess there are additional clues/reads available at the table which don't adequately get captured in a post here.

 

<snip>

There is one, the guy who is doing this.

I am also not sure, I buy the game theory argument, but it worked.

If he passes, he gets to make the 25% small, XX risks this, it gives the opponents the chance to run, you loose the ..

And is he sure, 7 our way does not make?

 

Get it right, maybe running is taking the safe road, and most likely you should do this, if you know the guy, but then:

Do we expect, the other tables to face the same situation, we loose the small +

 

So get it right.

[P_Marlowe]

I guess there are additional clues/reads available at the table which don't adequately get captured in a post here.

 

<snip>

There is one, the guy who is doing this.

I am also not sure, I buy the game theory argument, but it worked.

If he passes, he gets to make the 25% small, XX risks this, it gives the opponents the chance to run, you loose the ..

And is he sure, 7 our way does not make?

 

Get it right, maybe running is taking the safe road, and most likely you should do this, if you know the guy, but then:

Do we expect, the other tables to face the same situation, we loose the small +

 

So get it right.

[pigpenz]

i started my sims conservativly, with just a 55 hand the jacked it up to 66 and more points

there will always be hands where it can make but in reality its low low percentages the 6sxx makes if it does make it makes

[KingCovert]

i started my sims conservativly, with just a 55 hand the jacked it up to 66 and more points

there will always be hands where it can make but in reality its low low percentages the 6sxx makes if it does make it makes

 

I ask only to make a point, but, why would you even need to simulate this to figure it out?

 

Rest assured, possibly everyone in this thread is passing, despite how obstinately they might protest. Other decisions don't have merit. I hesitate to call them liars, they're not. It's simply that the integrity of these discussions are tainted by the fact that these post aren't made unless the actual result was abnormal. And, now you have a bunch of people trying to rationalize a way to be "right", and in the process, they are so very wrong.

 

Don't get tricked into believing that you need any sophisticated justification for pass here, you're simply falling into the trap.

[Zelandakh]

it's just the nature of how the integrity of such discussions are tainted by the fact that this post wouldn't be made unless the actual result was abnormal.

Except that it was Paul posting this. Which means the hand was almost certainly made up or adapted from somewhere else. And I stand by my previous posts - 1. we should have introduced clubs; 2. if we do introduce clubs and the opps still bid 6♠, what hands can partner hold for a pass?; 3. for hands where partner would make a FP, on what subset might West go for a XX? If someone would sim up all of those factors, I am confident that the number of hands where 6♠ makes is considerably larger than nil. And that is irrespective of the hand being posted or not.

[KingCovert]

Except that it was Paul posting this. Which means the hand was almost certainly made up or adapted from somewhere else. And I stand by my previous posts - 1. we should have introduced clubs; 2. if we do introduce clubs and the opps still bid 6♠, what hands can partner hold for a pass?; 3. for hands where partner would make a FP, on what subset might West go for a XX? If someone would sim up all of those factors, I am confident that the number of hands where 6♠ makes is considerably larger than nil. And that is irrespective of the hand being posted or not.

 

I do agree that the percentage of hands that it makes on goes up after the redouble, and that there is certainly value in introducing clubs, I just won't believe you or anyone else in this thread that would themselves demonstrate "bluff or bluster" if they claim that they'd ever make a 7-level call.

 

It's simple logic that, at the table, will reign supreme. If you think you're making 6♥, you're not going to accept taking a certain minus on this hand. And, anyone who disagrees with this, I would probably be tempted to call liar.

 

Edit: Heck, if I'm going to take such a staunch position, I may as well just go to the limit. If you think you're a good enough player to make a 7-level call here, you should know, you're actually bad enough to do it.