bridgeboy Posted May 30, 2005 Report Share Posted May 30, 2005 Hi all, I read about the following problem but I have some doubts about the suggested solution.. so maybe someone can work out the exact percentages... Here's the problem : [hv=w=sak53hq6d7642cj73&e=sqjhak743daqtcakq]266|100|Scoring: IMPSouth leads club T against 6NT[/hv] Thanks all in advance,Jinzhou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_c Posted May 30, 2005 Report Share Posted May 30, 2005 I can only find one sensible line - what am I missing? Cash ♠QJ, ♥A, then cross to ♥Q and cash the other two spades. If both opponents followed to the two hearts, then you pitch diamonds on the spades and then set up a heart trick. (Even if there is a spade still out, it's likely to be in the hand with shorter hearts.) If hearts are breaking 5-1 or worse then pitch hearts on the spades and take the diamond finesse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 30, 2005 Report Share Posted May 30, 2005 There is a blockage problem, and I don't se how to solve it. Its a percentage problem, if you wanna banj everything on ♥4-2 you have to duck first round of the suit after ♠QJ so nobody can cash a 5th ♠. But that is a poor line since a ♦ return will give you no possible extra chance, chances of someone having 4♥+5♠ is much less than ♥5-1 and ♦ finese onside. Any endplay line I can think of will give up ♥ breaking wixh sounds ridicoulous. I think I would just take it easy and play the standard ♠QJ and ♥A+♥Q and ♠AK, playing ♦ finese if neccesary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echognome Posted May 30, 2005 Report Share Posted May 30, 2005 I haven't given it much thought, but it looks like J♣ may be significant. You can cash a couple of clubs and then jettison a high club on a high spade which will probably be your useful squeeze card. Or maybe I'm reading too much into the spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 31, 2005 Report Share Posted May 31, 2005 I don't think ♣J is worth anything, you cannot cash 3♥ tricks before entering dummy unless you overtake a ♠ honnor (doesn't look right to me), and if you don't cash them then no end play will work, and you won't know what to discard since you don't know how ♥ are breaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 31, 2005 Report Share Posted May 31, 2005 I like david c's line alot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted May 31, 2005 Report Share Posted May 31, 2005 The only danger with this hand is a 5-1 or 6-0 heart break or if the long heart hand in a 4-2 break also holds 5 spades, so the question is how to maximize your chances if either occurs. It seems to rule out possibilities would be a viable option of play; cash the QJ of spades - if both folow, you can rule out case #2. If one shows out on the second spade, then case 2 is possible; at this point it appears a duck of a heart would be the best play and rely on the 4/2 or 3/3 heart break. If case #2 is ruled out when both follow to QJ of spades, then we are back to trying to solve case #1. At this point it seems right to play 1 more high club, then the Ace of hearts and then cross to the Queen of hearts - the only problem is if someone show out on either heart. If RHO has the length in hearts, I can play A, K of spades, pitching the Queen of clubs and 1 heart. We are down to a 5-card ending. RHO must hold 2 hearts, so now the J of clubs will squeeze RHO if he also started life with the king of diamonds. If LHO has heart length, no squeeze will operate that I know, so in this case I will rely on the diamond finesse. Playing in this fashion will win anytime the hearts are 3/3 or 4/2 (82%) and whenever RHO holds the diamond King when the hearts are unbalanced (9%). Although the percentages change when RHO is known to hold length, this is close enough for me. Call it 85% when RHO has 5 or more hearts and 95% when LHO holds the long hearts, or about a 90% line it would seem to me. The only other viable line I see - is to cross to the king of spades and take the diamond finesse at trick 3. If this loses, you will have to find the hearts 3/3. If the finesse wins, you can can unblock the spade, then duck a diamond. This would win if the diamonds are 3/3 with the King onside (18%) and when the hearts are 3/3, (36%). Only a 54% line. Ugh. Best I can come up with before the director starts hovering over my table. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willem Posted May 31, 2005 Report Share Posted May 31, 2005 My line doesn't work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
civill Posted May 31, 2005 Report Share Posted May 31, 2005 The up poster is escaping,I'd follow him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridgeboy Posted May 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2005 Hi all, According to the book, the reccommended play was to duck a H on trick 4 (after unblocking QJ S) to ensure you make whenever H are 4-2. On the actual layout the opp with long H had 5 S. My initial line was the same as david c's and Jlall's . Incidentally, this was also the one adopted by the 'student' and labelled as a mistake. I wasn't too sure if that play is really superior.. maybe someone can calculate the exact percentage ;) Thanks,Jinzhou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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