The Sound of Silence

[Tramticket]

You are left to play in a low-level part-score when the opponents clearly have the values to compete. This might be because: (a) the points are evenly divided and they are both looking at balanced hands with no biddable suit or (b) the opponent with the strength is sitting with values in your suit. But which alternative is more likely?

 

To give you an example:

 

[hv=pc=n&w=sak76hq9863dt72c5&e=sjt843h75dkj5cq62&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=p2h(Weak%202-suiter%2C%205%20hearts%20and%204%2B%20in%20any%20other%20suit.)ppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Playing pairs you open 2♥, which in your methods shows a weak two-suiter (five hearts and 4+ in any other suit). Although your opponents have a combined 24 HCP's, they have chosen not to bid.

 

The a priori odds of a 3-3 break are about 36%. Given that both opponents passed, do you now expect the odds of a 3-3 break to be greater or less than 36%? (Yes, I know that there are other clues from the lead and early play - but I am interested in the inferences that can be drawn from both opponents staying silent).

[FelicityR]

Maybe looking at your ♠ fit, and that the opponents will have to bid at the three level with a suit, or protect with a X that doesn't include ♠s, they can be forgiven for not competing vulnerable

 

I wouldn't take much notice of them not bidding as ♥s are more likely to be 4-2 anyway. Having arrived in a poor contract with your methods when they probably have 3♣ available as a contract, it is imperative to try to only go one down at most :)

 

How you would try to play the hand to try to go down only one at most is entirely another matter. Even if you do not bid as West, I doubt whether you will find the ♠ fit as East overcalling an opening bid by North is dubious.

[AL78]

If your methods put you in a poor 7 card fit instead of a decent 9 card fit, I'm not surprised they didn't want to compete.

 

I don't see the advantage of pre-empting in hearts when holding a decent 4 card spade suit. Your methods say you can, but that doesn't mean you should. This illustrates the risk of doing so, ending up in the wrong strain.

[Tramticket]

If your methods put you in a poor 7 card fit instead of a decent 9 card fit, I'm not surprised they didn't want to compete.

 

I don't see the advantage of pre-empting in hearts when holding a decent 4 card spade suit. Your methods say you can, but that doesn't mean you should. This illustrates the risk of doing so, ending up in the wrong strain.

 

Yes, but this doesn't address the question asked. Let me give you another go:

 

[hv=pc=n&w=sak6hq98763dt72c5&e=sjt8743h5dkj5cq62&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=p2h(Weak%20Two)ppp]266|200[/hv]

 

You are playing absolutely standard weak two bids. Unfortunately you are still playing in a 2♥ contract and have missed your nine-card spade fit. The question remains: given that both opponents passed, do you expect the odds of a 3-3 break to be greater or less than 36%?