Interesting Choice

[lamford]

[hv=pc=n&s=sa65haqdkqt54c864&n=sk82h754daj32cqt3&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1n(15-17)p3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

West leads the five of clubs (fourth best). The ten looks the normal card to play from dummy, but is it?

[Cyberyeti]

A simplistic analysis suggests that the 10 is best whenever W has KJxx(x)/AJxx(x)/Jxxx but still loses when he also has ♥K, Q wins when W has AKxxx (and AKxx and ♥K, either works when he doesn't) I think it's pretty close.

[broze]

Ignooring undertricks and assuming West has led from a 4+ card suit:

 

Q is better

 

W has ...

1a) AKxx and HK

1b) AKxxx and no HK

 

T is better

W has...

2a) AJxxx and HK

2b) KJxxx and HK

2c) AJxx, HK and East fails to find a H switch

2d) KJxx, HK and East fails to find a H switch

2e) Jxxx, HK and East fails to find a H switch

 

 

Everything else is break even as far as I can tell. Yeah pretty close but imo case (1b) is pretty large and cases 2c-2e are negligible so I think the Q is the correct play. Ten probably correct against bad opponents.

[mikeh]

Lho led a minor on an auction on which most would lead a major were it close. Also, we are missing 8 hearts and only 7 clubs. Even if Lho is 3334 he might lead a major some of the time. Thus it is probably reasonable to infer, at least against decent caliber opps, that Lho is looking at a good club suit. This inference, assuming it to be valid, may suggest AKxxx over AJxxx/KJxxx.

 

In addition, and arguing somewhat against myself, it is possible that Lho has A9752,in which case our play is irrelevant in the the suit is blocked (tho we will then need the heart K onside).

 

The problem is, then, not susceptible to precise analysis. If Lho were a rigid 4th best from our longest suit, such that he’d always lead a club from 3334,or always from, say, xx Kxxx xxx AJxx, then the 10 is correct in the suit itself, but even then a heart switch might be found, and that, too, depends on our assessment of our opps.

 

Against strong opps, I think the Q is best. Against weak, the 10. In-between or unknown, guess.

 

Nice problem, but one I would need to be ATT in order to answer.

[mythdoc]

Against GIB robots and their lead tendencies, playing 10 would be the most likely to set up the Q on rd 3.

[pescetom]

I have no claim to expertise here, but I too would think that clubs rather than a major suggests a fairly strong holding, and I only need one trick in clubs to be home and dry. So my simple mind would say the Q, except maybe against weak opponents at MP.

[lamford]

Good replies, all; the Q works with East having Jx.