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missed slam (again)


AL78

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[hv=pc=n&s=sq543ha76dj97caq3&w=st92hq4dt84ckt752&n=sak6hkj832dkq652c&e=sj87ht95da3cj9864&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1hp1sp3dp4hp5cp5hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

How do I judge to bid slam after partner cannot cue bid in diamonds? I was concerned that I could end up with more than one diamond loser if partner only held two small ones, assuming we have no trump losers. I didn't know she held Jxx which holds the suit to one loser on the layout, and the hearts lie very favourably.

 

If we were going to be in game we should have been in 3NT like three other pairs who also made 12 tricks. Two others found slam so we got a poor 19% for this.

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Surely 3 is game forcing and South can bid just 3 with an opening hand? This gets you a full round of cue-bidding, and South should be able to use RKCB.

 

But you're missing an ace and the queen of trump, so you should not be in slam. This slam is under 50% chance to make.

 

In a bad field, as South, I'd be tempted to sign off in 3N since that rates to score better than 4 no matter what partner has (though it might score worse than 6 depending on what partner has).

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You're resulting here, a slam requires hearts 3-2 onside with no diamond ruff, 3N may not be that good compared to 4 if the hearts or diamonds don't run (imagine you lose whichever of the club and diamond you lose first to E and a club whistles through, you may now only make 10 compared to 11 in hearts)
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Surely 3 is game forcing and South can bid just 3 with an opening hand? This gets you a full round of cue-bidding, and South should be able to use RKCB.

 

But you're missing an ace and the queen of trump, so you should not be in slam. This slam is under 50% chance to make.

 

In a bad field, as South, I'd be tempted to sign off in 3N since that rates to score better than 4 no matter what partner has (though it might score worse than 6 depending on what partner has).

 

I was kind of hoping partner would bid 3, then I would bid 3 to show my 3 card support, which should then nail my hand down to partner.

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