How would you open this hand?

[Cyberyeti]

In general if two balanced hands bid 3NT with a combined 25 HCP the chances of making is around 50%

I did such a simulation with the West hand as given and East being balanced or semi balanced, 10 HCP and 2 or 3 cards in hearts.

 

Result(1000 random deals):

3NT made on 604 deals (60.4%)

Average of number of tricks: 8.743

 

Single dummy with no revealing auction like 1NT-3NT the success rate will be even higher because of declarers advantage in 3NT

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

Actually no reason to assume he has 2 hearts, 31(45) is very plausible and that can be a 9 count,I think many do what we do and play 10 with 4 or 9 with 5 for a 2/1.

[rhm]

Actually no reason to assume he has 2 hearts, 31(45) is very plausible

Since when is 31(45) balanced or semi balanced?

You asked for a simulation with East being balanced or semi balanced.

I obliged and now you complain?

 

Rainer Herrmann

[nekthen]

I will assume I am dealer

Playing Acol weak NT for me this is 1N

Playing SAYC I am inclined to 1N also

[Cyberyeti]

Since when is 31(45) balanced or semi balanced?

You asked for a simulation with East being balanced or semi balanced.

I obliged and now you complain?

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

31(45)s are a different problem,and worse if you happen to run into them, because the hands can be weaker

 

I would need to see the detailed results of the sim, but I find them very odd, given that some good looking 10s give really crap play (Jx, Kx, xxxx, KQJ10x for example). I'm also not sure about your assertion that declarer has the advantage here, picking up the clubs opposite KJ109x every time double dummy for example, and the auction will be one where in a weak NT context, 2 suits will have been bid. Also the flaw in the sim is that you also needed to put in 3 or less spades or you won't get a 2m response unless possibly 42(52) (and I specified 2m was the one I was worried about), and because you have a doubleton spade, this means 3N is less likely to be good.

[bluenikki]

[hv=pc=n&w=sk2hq9543daq2ca64]133|100[/hv]

 

You didn't specify form of scoring.

 

If partner is going to pass a 1!h, you are highly likely to go minus in 1NT, whiile you may scramble a plus in 1!H. But you can't allow that worry to affect you.

 

If partner has 4 !h and 7 pts, opening 1NT may miss a game. Or even many 6 pt hands. This is a serious risk of the 1NT opening.

 

But opening 1!h in most other situations will leave you worrying whether partner really has a clear notion of what you have.

[miamijd]

I grew up in Columbus, Ohio, and Mikeh stated something Jeff told me back in the mid-80s. When opening a hand, if you have a choice between a slight underbid and a slight overbid, make the overbid every time. In other words, often upgrade; never downgrade. It makes things much easier on subsequent rounds (you just keep showing a minimum, rather than feeling like you have to catch up). This doesn't necessarily apply so much in later rounds, where there can be good reasons to downgrade your hand, but when opening the bidding, it's a really sound approach.

 

With 15 or 16 balanced, generally open 1NT even with a five-card major. It's almost always right to do this at IMPs (where the suit has to play two tricks better) and generally right in MPs (even though the suit only has to play one trick better there).

 

With 17 high balanced with a 5-card major, it's generally right to upgrade to 18 and open 1M. You'll miss too many good games if you open these hands 1NT (e.g., partner has 7-8 high and four-card support).

 

Cheers,

Mike

[msjennifer]

This is game forcing in Acol 15-19 for many people, and will get you to game opposite a lot of 9 counts where you really don't want to be

 

Sir, thanks indeed.I do not play ACOL but it appears from your reply that they open a four card major often when they get such a hand but then if responder bids 2C and ,as you say.a 2NT bid by opener is game forcing then certainly with 15 HCP with 11+plus with responder a game will always be bid in this or that strain.As also if one is afraid that this is not a game forcing hand then the easiest rebid is 2H to show a five card suit. A 2C bid with just 9 HCP is very uncommon unless the responder desires to play in a 3C contract.And on this particular hand ,with Axx in Club one should not mind bidding 3NT.(Or at least I do not).And as I clearly mentioned that hands can be artificially constructed where either opening is correct/wrong and a preparatory 1C opening will hit the jackpot.The hand has 6 Losers and these with 8 losers announced by the 2C response most certainly can be played at 3/4 level in any suit with responder(club in this case.).THANKS.

[ruleof15]

[hv=pc=n&w=sk2hq9543daq2ca64]133|100[/hv]

[ruleof15]

I open all 15-17 HCP balanced (4-3-3-3 w/1 card moved)1NT. There is no other way to inform partner of this holding in HCP. As for this hand, I don't want to rebid the heart suit.

Opener's only job in an auction is to describe their hand as quickly as possible so responder can place the contract. Having any concern about what responder will do is inconsequential.

[PhilG007]

Its now common practice to open a strong NT which could contain a 5 card major suit. I prefer

the No Trump opening simply because it gets the hand off your chest in 1 bid. Partner knows you are

15-i7 with a balanced hand. Opening 1♥ however tells a different story 12-19 hcps with at least

5 cards in hearts. I believe in the adage "Stand up Speak up Shut up"

[Cyberyeti]

Sir, thanks indeed.I do not play ACOL but it appears from your reply that they open a four card major often when they get such a hand but then if responder bids 2C and ,as you say.a 2NT bid by opener is game forcing then certainly with 15 HCP with 11+plus with responder a game will always be bid in this or that strain.As also if one is afraid that this is not a game forcing hand then the easiest rebid is 2H to show a five card suit. A 2C bid with just 9 HCP is very uncommon unless the responder desires to play in a 3C contract.And on this particular hand ,with Axx in Club one should not mind bidding 3NT.(Or at least I do not).And as I clearly mentioned that hands can be artificially constructed where either opening is correct/wrong and a preparatory 1C opening will hit the jackpot.The hand has 6 Losers and these with 8 losers announced by the 2C response most certainly can be played at 3/4 level in any suit with responder(club in this case.).THANKS.

 

There are two styles of Acol, our 1♥ is only 4 if 3433 or 44(32) 15-bad 19, we open the minor with 4M4m32 but many others open the major which is what traditional Acol does, we play a wide range 1N rebid over 1x-1y with a range enquiry so like to use that and open the minor. Btw traditional Acol routinely 2/1d with an 8 count but few do that now.

[AL78]

Actually no reason to assume he has 2 hearts, 31(45) is very plausible and that can be a 9 count,I think many do what we do and play 10 with 4 or 9 with 5 for a 2/1.

 

If I held 3145 shape and a 9 count opposite a 1♥ opening, I would lean towards responding 1NT (6-9) than bidding 2 over 1. I don't mind slightly underbidding when there is a real danger it is a misfit deal.

[Cyberyeti]

If I held 3145 shape and a 9 count opposite a 1♥ opening, I would lean towards responding 1NT (6-9) than bidding 2 over 1. I don't mind slightly underbidding when there is a real danger it is a misfit deal.

 

Traditional Acol passes this with 15-16 balanced which is pretty common, I can live with passing with 15, but it may well not be good with a respectable 16. For us it's 5-9.

[iandayre]

This is a very weak 15 point hand, and lacks 3 Spades. I would open 1H and rebid 1NT over 1S.

[phoenixmj]

I did open this hand 1NT and it proved to be a bad idea as we did have a heart suit fit, but partner did not have enough points to do puppet staymen which we play as a 3c bid over 1NT.

 

I am reading a somewhat LONG diatribe about 1NT openings and responses. I am not sure if I would have opened this 1NT before reading that diatribe. It talked about tenaces and that with tenaces you want to be receiving the lead, and the best way to have that happen is to open no trump. Similarly, a king doubleton, you want to receive the lead. Then there is the rebid issue - with a suit open you need a rebid. All those reasons caused me to open 1NT. It is reassuring that those reasons occurred in the answers here - perhaps I am following the right track.

 

The game we were playing in had about 30 percent Canadians, and they tend to play weak NT openings. So, they likely opened this 1H. In this case it worked well for them. So, about 30 percent of the people played hearts and the rest NT - which did not fare as well as hearts. So, I was curious if people who know a LOT more than me would have opened it 1NT - and I am seeing that many would. So, I guess it is just another situation where making the right bid does not necessarily work out.

 

Thanks for all of the responses. It definitely made for interesting reading.

[mikeh]

I did open this hand 1NT and it proved to be a bad idea as we did have a heart suit fit, but partner did not have enough points to do puppet staymen which we play as a 3c bid over 1NT.

 

I am reading a somewhat LONG diatribe about 1NT openings and responses. I am not sure if I would have opened this 1NT before reading that diatribe. It talked about tenaces and that with tenaces you want to be receiving the lead, and the best way to have that happen is to open no trump. Similarly, a king doubleton, you want to receive the lead. Then there is the rebid issue - with a suit open you need a rebid. All those reasons caused me to open 1NT. It is reassuring that those reasons occurred in the answers here - perhaps I am following the right track.

 

The game we were playing in had about 30 percent Canadians, and they tend to play weak NT openings. So, they likely opened this 1H. In this case it worked well for them. So, about 30 percent of the people played hearts and the rest NT - which did not fare as well as hearts. So, I was curious if people who know a LOT more than me would have opened it 1NT - and I am seeing that many would. So, I guess it is just another situation where making the right bid does not necessarily work out.

 

Thanks for all of the responses. It definitely made for interesting reading.

Few Canadians play weak 1N opening bids. It was popular in the east, especially in Montreal, but it is very much a minority view these days, as far as I can tell. I have played a lot of Canadian team trials, and few of the top players, in my experience, use a weak 1N.

 

As for ‘making the right bid’ not working out: welcome to bridge😀. If technically correct bridge always prevailed, few would play the game. More importantly, one can never determine what the best call is for any hand without knowing the overall system. Any coherent system involves accepting sub-optimal results on some hands, based on the belief that overall the system delivers results superior to other methods.

[AL78]

I did open this hand 1NT and it proved to be a bad idea as we did have a heart suit fit, but partner did not have enough points to do puppet staymen which we play as a 3c bid over 1NT.

 

I am reading a somewhat LONG diatribe about 1NT openings and responses. I am not sure if I would have opened this 1NT before reading that diatribe. It talked about tenaces and that with tenaces you want to be receiving the lead, and the best way to have that happen is to open no trump. Similarly, a king doubleton, you want to receive the lead. Then there is the rebid issue - with a suit open you need a rebid. All those reasons caused me to open 1NT. It is reassuring that those reasons occurred in the answers here - perhaps I am following the right track.

 

The game we were playing in had about 30 percent Canadians, and they tend to play weak NT openings. So, they likely opened this 1H. In this case it worked well for them. So, about 30 percent of the people played hearts and the rest NT - which did not fare as well as hearts. So, I was curious if people who know a LOT more than me would have opened it 1NT - and I am seeing that many would. So, I guess it is just another situation where making the right bid does not necessarily work out.

 

Thanks for all of the responses. It definitely made for interesting reading.

 

Bridge is a game of probabilities, and making the theoretically most sound bid does not guarentee the best result. It doesn't mean the bid was wrong. It is worth noting when people advocate a bid in a situation with two or more options, and try to justify it by posting one or two deals where it works well, that doesn't tell you much, with almost all bids you can cherry-pick a deal where it works. What matters is how frequently it will work in the long term (hence where simulations can be useful as long as the initial conditions are specified correctly).

[801Dave]

I'd open 1NT. First, the heart suit is not so hot. Second, with the NT opening I have a rebid. That in itself tells partner the suit is likely less than stellar.

[Cyberyeti]

Bridge is a game of probabilities, and making the theoretically most sound bid does not guarentee the best result. It doesn't mean the bid was wrong. It is worth noting when people advocate a bid in a situation with two or more options, and try to justify it by posting one or two deals where it works well, that doesn't tell you much, with almost all bids you can cherry-pick a deal where it works. What matters is how frequently it will work in the long term (hence where simulations can be useful as long as the initial conditions are specified correctly).

 

There's even more to this in that if all 5332s in range are opened 1N, you have inferences when 1N is NOT opened and these are the cases that are most difficult to quantify, as they don't relate to the hand that's actually in front of you.

[fromageGB]

The OP did not state what the scoring method is, and I think that it critical. Playing in matchpoints I will open 1H always, because missing the major part score can be awful if others are bidding it. Playing in IMPs I open 1NT - and this hand is OK for 12-14 NT (not really worth 15, is it?) or 15-17 NT.

[gordontd]

Playing in IMPs I open 1NT - and this hand is OK for 12-14 NT (not really worth 15, is it?)

3 quick tricks, no jacks, a five-card suit. Doesn't look like a hand to downgrade to me.

[Cyberyeti]

3 quick tricks, no jacks, a five-card suit. Doesn't look like a hand to downgrade to me.

 

One 9, nothing else above a 6, way below average intemediates

[gordontd]

One 9, nothing else above a 6, way below average intemediates

Since the features that make it a good hand apply especially to playing in a suit, and those you have identified are more relevant to NT contracts, it doesn't seem to me to argue for opening a weak NT rather than 1H.

[Cyberyeti]

Since the features that make it a good hand apply especially to playing in a suit, and those you have identified are more relevant to NT contracts, it doesn't seem to me to argue for opening a weak NT rather than 1H.

 

Opening 1N also makes it not go 1♥-(1♠)-P-(2♠)which you don't have a great hand for

[gordontd]

Opening 1N also makes it not go 1♥-(1♠)-P-(2♠)which you don't have a great hand for

You can double. You have a worse hand for 1NT - (2♠) - P - (P) or similar. But somehow I think you will just carry on arguing the point so I'll bow out now.