Coronavirus

[cherdano]

ongoing lockdown

 

So for those not familiar with current UK rules, here is what Cyberyeti considers "ongoing lockdown":

 

Since March 8: Schools/childcare services open.

 

Since March 29: outdoor sports and similar

 

Since April 12: Retail opens, hair salons/spas/other "personal care". Restaurants/pubs/cafe open outdoors, gyms etc. for individual exercise, self-catering holiday accommodation, outdoor attractions, community centers/libraries

 

Meanwhile, it is expected that on May 17, restaurants/pubs/cafes will open indoors, as well as cinemas, theatres, concert halls, museums, indoor play areas, etc. etc.

 

Quite the time to complain about the "ongoing lockdown".

[cherdano]

You seem to want to mischaracterise me completely based on your own prejudices if I disagree with you. You do this on Brexit and Covid.

Well, if you are not a Brexit supporter, then you are indeed the worst forum poster ever, in the sense that you are conveying a completely different view than the one you actually hold.

 

If I make a post where I "just point out" that because of seatbelt laws, I have to spent thousands of extra pounds when buying a car, then readers will come to the conclusion that I am critical of seatbelt laws. If all my posts about seatbelt laws exaggerate the costs that come with them, then other forum members will conclude I am anti-seatbelt laws. Just like "just pointing out" that more immigrants means more strain on the "already stretched" infrastructure/less space in the park to run around would lead others to conclude that the poster is anti-immigrant.

 

In a sense I don't care what Cyberyeti the person thinks - I don't know him, and have no way of finding out about his views. What I do know is that Cyberyeti the forum poster is quite supportive of Brexit, complains about the (perceived) high costs of masks, was always critical of lockdowns, etc.

 

If you really think the views of Cyberyeti the forum poster do not reflect the views of Cyberyeti the person, then maybe you should write fewer posts "just pointing out" things, and more posts where you actually say what you think. (Of course, another possibility is that those views are much more in line with your own thoughts than you are able to admit yourself...)

[pilowsky]

There are two types blood clot. Both are potentially lethal.

The commonest type is "deep vein thrombosis" where a clot forms in the vain in your leg. If this clot grows in size it can break off and lodge in the lungs.

In the worst case, after breaking off and blocking the blood flow to the lungs no blood can return to heart and death occurs immediately.

This type of clot is the one that is more common if you are lying in a hospital bed for too long without moving your legs. It is also associated with air travel - the so-called "economy class syndrome".

(As an aside, when the surgeons tried to save Lady Diana after the car crash, it was found that she had a torn vena cava. It was impossible to prevent a fatal haemorrhage from this massive vein which is the largest in the body.)

The rarer type is "cerebral venous thrombosis" (CVT). Veins in the brain are very thin walled and blood moves rather slowly. If they are cut during surgery it is very hard to stop them bleeding.

 

According to a 2017 review in Nature Reviews Neurology (Cerebral venous thrombosis; Suzanne M. Silvis, Diana Aguiar de Sousa, José M. Ferro & Jonathan M Coutinho; Nature Reviews Neurology volume 13, pages555–565),

CVT is rare but not unheard of.

...data from population-based studies conducted in the past few years in the Netherlands and Australia have shown that the current incidence among adults is about tenfold higher than this estimate (1.3–1.6 per 100,000), and the incidence is probably even higher in Asia and the Middle East, as the rates of pregnancy and infection-related cases are higher in these countries. Although the increase in incidence might partly be explained by a shift in risk factors, improvements in imaging techniques — which result in the identification of less-severe cases — is probably the most important contributing factor.

AND

Risk factors and associated conditions. Most adults with CVT are aged 20–50 years and <10% of these individuals are older than 65 years. Among young and middle-aged adults, CVT is threefold more common in women than in men. This heavily skewed sex ratio is the result of the sex-specific risk factors of oral contraceptives, pregnancy and puerperium. The risk of CVT in women who use oral contraceptives is increased approximately sixfold, and this risk is increased further still in women with obesity who use oral contraceptives. A large number of other risk factors — both transient and permanent — have been associated with CVT

Much of this paper is directly rewritten from a previous review by the last author JM Coutinho in 2015 in J Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

 

A review of Norwegian data was published in September 2020 covering a 7 year period up to 2017 (Incidence and Mortality of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in a Norwegian Population; Espen Saxhaug Kristoffersen, Charlotte Elena Harper, Kjersti Grøtta Vetvik, Svetozar Zarnovicky, Jakob Møller Hansen, Kashif Waqar Faiz; Stroke. 2020;51:3023–3029) - you can download this one from the internet.

 

Results:

Sixty-two patients aged 0 to 80 years were identified and included. The median age was 46 years and 53% were females. The overall incidence of CVT was 1.75 (95% CI, 1.36–2.23) per 100 000/y with no significant sex differences. The incidence for children and adolescents (<18 years, n=9) was lower than for adults (≥18 years, n=53); 1.08 (0.52–1.97) versus 1.96 (1.49–2.55) per 100 000/y per year, with the highest incidence for those >50 years with 2.10 (1.38–3.07)/100 000/y. Headache was the most prevalent symptom, reported in 83%, followed by nausea, motor deficits, and seizures observed in 45%, 32%, and 32% of the patients. Transverse sinuses and the jugular vein were the most frequent sites of thrombosis. In most patients (61%), thrombosis occurred in multiple sinuses/veins. Risk factors were found in 73% of the patients, and most of the patients had a combination of 2 or more risk factors. The 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 3% and 6%.

 

I am not sure why these data are now being reported as ten times smaller in current health advice.

If this is correct then it seems that an incidence of 4-5 per million in vaccine recipients is equivalent to the average pre-COVID19.

So far as I can tell, the data suggest that the vaccine does not have a particular effect on this unusual clotting disorder. On the other hand getting COVID19 dramatically increases your chances of getting it.

 

Other things to remember are that when people get vaccines (new ones especially) or novel diseases, doctors are particularly alert to spotting problems.

This means that the diagnosis of anything rare will increase (they start looking for it).

One thing is certain. your chances of getting this rare disorder are increased if you get COVID19 - so are your chances of getting deep vein thrombosis if you become bed-ridden with it.

I don't know what the increased risk of getting CVT is in those people that get infected (mildly or asymptomatically) is AND then get the vaccine. This problem will likely confound the data.

 

Another thing we do know is that pandemics are a common phenomenon ('Flu, polio, TB, malaria and more), but they don't fit into the election cycle so politicians persist in eviscerating the systems that are there to prevent them.

And then when you get Jim (freedom to do anything I want anytime I want to) Jordan teling (actually telling!) Dr Fauci that he shouldn't have to do things to prevent the spread of disease because blather blather blather.

It feels exactly the same as explaining to a toddler why they can't have the candy at a checkout.

[cherdano]

I don't have the time to reply fully now, but just want to say that pillowsky's last post is wrong in several key points. E.g. he is comparing the annual background incidence with the incidence after vaccinations, which occur in a 1-2 week window. Also, they come with a very specific and rare combination of symptoms and lab results. Read Kai Kupferschmidt and Gretchen Vogel at sciencemag, not pillowsky @BBF if you want to be informed.

[pilowsky]

I don't have the time to reply fully now, but just want to say that pillowsky's last post is wrong in several key points. E.g. he is comparing the annual background incidence with the incidence after vaccinations, which occur in a 1-2 week window. Also, they come with a very specific and rare combination of symptoms and lab results. Read Kai Kupferschmidt and Gretchen Vogel at sciencemag, not pillowsky @BBF if you want to be informed.

 

While you are not having the time to reply to what you think are the key points, please address what I believe are the points that are critical:

1. You are far more likely to get the CVT if you have COVID19 than if you don't.

2. You correctly point out that the background incidence estimate is a problem. What I am asking (of the statisticians) is are you more likely to get CVT if you have had COVID19 - but didn't know it - and then had the vaccine.

Also, provide the specific reference from "Sciencemag" so we can review it.

[cherdano]

Also, provide the specific reference from "Sciencemag" so we can review it.

Sure: https://www.google.com/search?q=Kai+Kupferschmidt+and+Gretchen+Vogel+at+sciencemag&client=ms-android-samsung&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

[y66]

I like it

Two weeks from tonight on May 26th, we will announce a winner of a separate drawing for adults who have received at least their first dose of the vaccine. This announcement will occur each Wednesday for five weeks, and the winner each Wedn

[pilowsky]

It says something that in order to protect themselves and others America is "gamifying" the vaccine.

Soon there will be a vaccine leaderboard, Vacpoints and Gold stars for people that get their vaccine on time.

In no time at all people will be getting multiple shots of vaccine with different usernames to enhance their chances of winning.

Good to know that the free market operates with altruism in the USA.

[johnu]

Who said that getting vaccinated was a political talking point??? :lol:

 

Just 45% of House Republicans say they've been vaccinated while 100% of congressional Democrats say they've gotten the shot

 

Every Democratic lawmaker in the House and Senate says they've received a COVID-19 vaccine.

 

But just 45% of House Republicans say they've been vaccinated, while four GOP senators haven't gotten the shot.

 

"I'm not going to talk about it. I don't think anybody should have to share their personal, private medical information with anybody," said Rep. Greg Steube of Florida.

 

In case anybody had any doubt, Steube is a twice impeached one term Manchurian President Repug. Many Repugs refused to answer the question because they would lose street cred for being hypocrites if they were vaccinated while catering to the anti-vaxxer wing and most of the fuselage of the GOP.

 

Of course, even the Grifter in Chief was secretly vaccinated even though he had a well publicized bout with Covid.

[kenberg]

Who said that getting vaccinated was a political talking point??? :lol:

 

Just 45% of House Republicans say they've been vaccinated while 100% of congressional Democrats say they've gotten the shot

 

 

 

 

 

In case anybody had any doubt, Steube is a twice impeached one term Manchurian President Repug. Many Repugs refused to answer the question because they would lose street cred for being hypocrites if they were vaccinated while catering to the anti-vaxxer wing and most of the fuselage of the GOP.

 

Of course, even the Grifter in Chief was secretly vaccinated even though he had a well publicized bout with Covid.

 

When I was in high school I could often out on my "Nobody tells me what to do" face. I grew up. There really is not much more to say.

[barmar]

"I'm not going to talk about it. I don't think anybody should have to share their personal, private medical information with anybody," said Rep. Greg Steube of Florida.

The problem with attitudes like this is that this is not just personal information. This is a highly contagious disease, so your medical information is relevant to all the people you interact with.

 

Feel free to keep your cancer or pregnancy status a secret. But not anything related to COVID-19.

 

Florida recently passed a law prohibiting businesses from requiring proof of vaccination. DeSantis said:

In Florida, your personal choice regarding vaccinations will be protected and no business or government entity will be able to deny you services based on your decision. I’d like to thank President Simpson, Speaker Sprowls and the Florida Legislature for getting this legislation got[sic] across the finish line.

Many cruise ships leave from Florida, they're likely to switch to other ports so they can require that all passengers be vaccinated.

[kenberg]

The problem with attitudes like this is that this is not just personal information. This is a highly contagious disease, so your medical information is relevant to all the people you interact with.

 

 

And it is even worse. With me, yes, who I interact with care. With those in a leadership position in the R party, their refusal to speak out is passing up an opportunity to help get the "wait and see" fold to stop waiting.

 

And it is even worse worse. It is impossible that these Rs in leadership roles do not understand the effect that their silence has. Of course people must take responsibility for their own choices, but often the way we do this is to follow the lead of someone that we trust. We do not become experts on everything, often we just trust. who we trust. That can cost dearly if the trusted ones are totally irresponsible.

[pilowsky]

When I worked at UNC in the 1990's many things were new and surprising.

• When my daughters missed the school bus (such things don't exist in Australia), they were returned to us by a couple of friendly police officers.
• The airport at Charlotte had the worlds best second-hand bookshop. This area has the highest concentration of PhD's in the world.
• The supermarket had so many varieties of potato it was nearly impossible to choose.
• What are grits anyway?

But one thing stood out: our fully vaccinated children could not attend school until they could prove that they were immunised against Haemophilus Influenza B.

This happened in the antebellum south. You could almost hear Rhett telling Scarlett that he didn't give a damn.

Go to school without being vaccinated for a much more lethal respiratory disease, sure!

[y66]

From Ezra Klein Interviews Michael Lewis about "The Premonition":

 

LEWIS: I go where my characters take me. They took me on that journey. I would have loved to have been able to just write this as the sequel to “The Fifth Risk.” It was just messier than that. And even in “The Fifth Risk,” it was clear that, yeah, Trump is taking a wrecking ball to this machine that we have to deal with existential risks. But it’s like the one tool we have to deal with lots of problems. But that tool, that machine has been allowed to rust for generations. So it was easier to destroy than it should have been. And one form of the rust is like what happened inside the CDC.

 

When I have a character who’s a local public health officer in Santa Barbara County — Charity Dean — this is the main character in the book who is fighting very bravely crazy outbreaks of disease in her county. It’s not COVID. It’s tuberculosis, or it’s HIV, or hep C, or measles in schools. And has little microcosms of the same experience we’ve seen writ large with COVID. Controversies, upsetting people to save lives.

 

And she has — when she takes this job — this sense that there is this federal enterprise that’s there to help her called the Centers for Disease Control. She’s supposed to lean on them for academic help, but also to have her back in cases. And she realizes that they don’t have her back. That, in fact, just the opposite. Any kind of controversy that she causes, they run away from. It’s a premonition of what’s coming.

 

If you had asked Charity Dean in 2015, before Trump is in the air, what’s going to happen if there’s a pandemic, she’d have told you there’s nobody to run it. The supposed institution on top is actually not engaging with the problems in a serious way and the system isn’t a system. It’s just 3,000 of me around the country unconnected, on our own, with no one coming to save us.

[y66]

Important to note that Friday, May 14, two days after Gov. DeWine announced the Vax-a-Million or Shottery as (@karenkasler has named it), Ohio saw the highest daily vaccination rate in 3 weeks, with more than 25,000 people receiving a dose.

[kenberg]

Perhaps this belongs on the education thread, but wherever it is I found it a fun read.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/move-pandemic-in-person-school/2021/05/10/d954eef2-97b1-11eb-b28d-bfa7bb5cb2a5_story.html

[pilowsky]

The QANON congresswoman thinks that wearing a mask is equivalent to being forced to wear a yellow star in nazi Germany.

Words fail me. And that doesn't happen often.

You know, we can look back at a time in history where people were told to wear a gold star and they were definitely treated like second-class set of citizens so much so that they were put in trains and taken to gas chambers and Nazi Germany, and this is exactly the type of abuse that Nancy Pelosi is talking about.

[kenberg]

The QANON congresswoman thinks that wearing a mask is equivalent to being forced to wear a yellow star in nazi Germany.

Words fail me. And that doesn't happen often.

 

I think the phrase "false equivalence" is often overused. But in this case the phrase would be totally inadequate. She is an embarrassment to herself, to her constituents, to the House of Representatives, and to the country. I don't know if being a total moron is grounds for expulsion, probably not, but I hope every member of the house makes it unequivocally clear that she does not speak for them.

 

From time to time something happens where everyone agrees "This person does not belong here". No one can disagree. I've been in some cheap bars in my life and she wouldn't be welcome there. Nowhere.

[Winstonm]

I think the phrase "false equivalence" is often overused. But in this case the phrase would be totally inadequate. She is an embarrassment to herself, to her constituents, to the House of Representatives, and to the country. I don't know if being a total moron is grounds for expulsion, probably not, but I hope every member of the house makes it unequivocally clear that she does not speak for them.

 

From time to time something happens where everyone agrees "This person does not belong here". No one can disagree. I've been in some cheap bars in my life and she wouldn't be welcome there. Nowhere.

Keep in mind that she was elected in a Georgia district that has a population of over 700,000 of which 59% are urban. The fringe crazoids have become mainstream, and if responsible people don’t shout them down right now the outcome is quickly becoming irreversible.

[pilowsky]

I think the phrase "false equivalence" is often overused. But in this case the phrase would be totally inadequate. She is an embarrassment to herself, to her constituents, to the House of Representatives, and to the country. I don't know if being a total moron is grounds for expulsion, probably not, but I hope every member of the house makes it unequivocally clear that she does not speak for them.

 

From time to time something happens where everyone agrees "This person does not belong here". No one can disagree. I've been in some cheap bars in my life and she wouldn't be welcome there. Nowhere.

 

Doesn't she own a 'cheap bar'? Or is that the other one?

[johnu]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of 1,249 National Adults

 

Interesting polling results on a variety of topics. There are definitely 2 Americas, or should I say, one USA and one Confederate States of America.

[Winstonm]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of 1,249 National Adults

 

Interesting polling results on a variety of topics. There are definitely 2 Americas, or should I say, one USA and one Confederate States of America.

I wonder if we would be better off if Grant had hanged the treasonous Confederates and redistributed the south to the victors.

[barmar]

I think the phrase "false equivalence" is often overused. But in this case the phrase would be totally inadequate.

False equivalencies seem to be SOP these days. This is the same Congress where a member said that the insurrection looked like tourists, to argue against creating a bipartisan commission to investigate.

[pilowsky]

I've seen American tourists in Europe, so I can see where the misunderstanding arose.

[johnu]

From the pages of Stranger Than Science,

 

Boris Johnson Wanted Coronavirus Injected In His Arm On TV To Reassure UK: Ex-Aide

 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson formulated a bonkers plan to prove coronavirus was a “scare story” by injecting himself with the virus on live TV, his former chief adviser said Wednesday. (Watch the video below.)

 

In February 2020, a month before the virus was declared a pandemic and Britain imposed its first lockdown, Johnson dismissed COVID-19 as “the new swine flu,” Dominic Cummings told lawmakers.

 

“The prime minister regarded this as just a scare story,” Cummings said in testimony that blasted the government’s response to the pandemic. He added that Johnson’s aides viewed the prime minister’s attitude as, “It’s swine flu, don’t worry about it. I’m gonna get (Chief Medical Officer) Chris Whitty to inject me live on TV with coronavirus ― then everyone realizes it’s nothing to be frightened of.”