Coronavirus

[pilowsky]

It seems that Hey Joe Biden (http://bit.ly/HeyJoeHend) has come around - far too late - to the idea that it might be a good idea to suspend vaccine patents for a while.

At least according to an NBC news flash, I just saw.

No doubt he was reading the thread on this forum.

At the same time, Sydney just entered a sort of conservative government equivalent of lockdown.

In this form of lockdown, people can still wander about and meet in large groups.

It is impossible to find a place that will vaccinate you - except on Thursday or Friday mornings in two weeks time.

Meanwhile, the Morrison government is resorting to sabre-rattling with China to distract peoples attention from their incompetence.

Meanwhile, in other news, a famous footballer is being jailed for a crime that sounds like sexual assault; and a previously well-known cricketer "shocked" newsreaders by revealing that he had been kidnapped, beaten and threatened with a gun.

Australian priorities.

[y66]

From New analysis finds global Covid death toll is double official estimates by Helen Bramswell at STAT

 

A new analysis of the toll of the Covid-19 pandemic suggests 6.9 million people worldwide have died from the disease, more than twice as many people as has been officially reported.

 

In the United States, the analysis estimates, 905,000 people have died of Covid since the start of the pandemic. That is about 61% higher than the current death estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 561,594. The new figure also surpasses the estimated number of U.S. deaths in the 1918 flu pandemic, which was estimated to have killed approximately 675,000 Americans.

[Cyberyeti]

The first stats on the effect of lockdown on non Covid deaths in the UK have emerged. Around 1300 extra cases (around 20% extra) of people drinking themselves to death in 2020 compared to 2019, concentrated from late March onwards.

[hrothgar]

The first stats on the effect of lockdown on non Covid deaths in the UK have emerged. Around 1300 extra cases (around 20% extra) of people drinking themselves to death in 2020 compared to 2019, concentrated from late March onwards.

 

Comment 1: Not really sure how you separate "drinking deaths due to the lockdown" from "drinking deaths during the time of COVID".

 

Comment 2: Do you understand what kind of death rates countries are experience when COVID gets loose?

 

The latest estimates here in the US are suggesting that there have been over 900 thousand deaths due to COVID

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1cd9M1O2UCAgVK6yZBtWk20WQ4EQjhf5FSVmqPxU5-AzuLzAPnjIm_gp0

 

Currently, the official death toll in India is at 4000 people a day, however, there are a lot of claims that its closer to 40,000 deaths a day.

[Winstonm]

The first stats on the effect of lockdown on non Covid deaths in the UK have emerged. Around 1300 extra cases (around 20% extra) of people drinking themselves to death in 2020 compared to 2019, concentrated from late March onwards.

 

I think your stream of causation ends too abruptly.

 

To me it seems as though this is your claim:

 

A. Alcohol related deaths are up during the period of the lockdown.

B. The lockdown has created that spike.

 

But you discount the following:

C. The lockdown was the result of Covid-19

D. This particular increase in alcohol deaths is secondary to Covid-19, not a direct result of the lockdown.

E. Therefore, these death could easily be termed Covid-related, as well as any deaths that occurred due to lack or access to a hospital or ICU because of Covid surge in patients.

 

It would be worthwhile to know if there has been similar increases during other periods of high stress environments. NPR here in the U.S. had an interesting article yesterday about the emotional, psychological, and psychiatric damage caused by the ever-present stress brought about by the pandemic.

[Cyberyeti]

Comment 1: Not really sure how you separate "drinking deaths due to the lockdown" from "drinking deaths due to COVID".

 

Comment 2: Do you understand what kind of death rates countries are experience when COVID gets loose?

 

The latest estimates here in the US are suggesting that there have been over 900 thousand deaths due to COVID

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1cd9M1O2UCAgVK6yZBtWk20WQ4EQjhf5FSVmqPxU5-AzuLzAPnjIm_gp0

 

Currently, the official death toll in India is at 4000 people a day, however, there are a lot of claims that its closer to 40,000 deaths a day.

 

Yes of course I understand the death rates from Covid, I suspect there are virtually no drinking deaths from Covid and so did the researchers. There are just the first figures from the UK on the side effects of the pandemic, awaiting the suicide and domestic violence figures which will be published in future months.

[jillybean]

The collateral damage from Covid will be significant and ongoing. Drug/alcohol related deaths, suicide, murder, treatable conditions going untreated due to lack of hospital resources, mental illness, lower birth rates, disruptions in education. I'm sure the list goes on.

 

I trust no one was suggesting the lockdown should be lifted to "save these lives"?

[Cyberyeti]

The collateral damage from Covid will be significant and ongoing. Drug/alcohol related deaths, suicide, murder, treatable conditions going untreated due to lack of hospital resources, mental illness, lower birth rates, disruptions in education. I'm sure the list goes on.

 

I trust no one was suggesting the lockdown should be lifted to "save these lives"?

 

Indeed not, but I've been saying for a long time that lockdown kills people, it's necessary because Covid kills more people but it's not free, that's all I'm saying and these are the first UK figures to do with quantifying that.

[jillybean]

Indeed not, but I've been saying for a long time that lockdown kills people, it's necessary because Covid kills more people but it's not free, that's all I'm saying and these are the first UK figures to do with quantifying that.

OK, I'm not sure how they come up with #deaths due to lockdown drinking as opposed to those who would have simply drunk themselves to death in normal times. I agree, lockdowns aren't without cost.

[hrothgar]

Indeed not, but I've been saying for a long time that lockdown kills people, it's necessary because Covid kills more people but it's not free, that's all I'm saying and these are the first UK figures to do with quantifying that.

 

All fine and dandy.

 

My reaction:

 

1. I haven't seen anyone claim that look downs are free

2. The number of COVID related deaths in the UK is over 125K (so a couple orders of magnitude greater)

 

So, I'm really not going to get too worked up over what appears to good public policy

[Cyberyeti]

OK, I'm not sure how they come up with #deaths due to lockdown drinking as opposed to those who would have simply drunk themselves to death in normal times. I agree, lockdowns aren't without cost.

 

Because they have the figures from the previous years and the start of 2020 pre lockdown, the rate went up with the start of lockdown.

[hrothgar]

Because they have the figures from the previous years and the start of 2020 pre lockdown, the rate went up with the start of lockdown.

 

I certainly agree that it is possible to calculate excess deaths from drinking.

 

I'm just not sure that one can attribute these to the lockdown as opposed to any of a myriad of other shitty things that COVID has inflicted on us all

[Cyberyeti]

All fine and dandy.

 

My reaction:

 

1. I haven't seen anyone claim that look downs are free

2. The number of COVID related deaths in the UK is over 125K (so a couple orders of magnitude greater)

 

So, I'm really not going to get too worked up over what appears to good public policy

 

You're not in the UK, plenty of people have denied an issue with lockdown.

 

How many historically have died is largely irrelevant lockdown was clearly needed, the question is whether with the MUCH lower rate of Covid deaths we have now in the UK (7 day average 12 or so) whether the costs of lockdown are higher than the lives saved. As the vaccination rate increases, the deaths from Covid will decrease further so there is a point at which modelling will indicate that the increase in deaths from releasing lockdown will not outweigh the deaths lockdown is causing.

[Cyberyeti]

I certainly agree that it is possible to calculate excess deaths from drinking.

 

I'm just not sure that one can attribute these to the lockdown as opposed to any of a myriad of other shitty things that COVID has inflicted on us all

 

I believe the researchers did, but I've only heard second hand reports of this. I would expect there to be some where somebody's lost a loved one, but if the survey's done correctly they've probably taken this into account.

[hrothgar]

You're not in the UK, plenty of people have denied an issue with lockdown.

 

How many historically have died is largely irrelevant lockdown was clearly needed, the question is whether with the MUCH lower rate of Covid deaths we have now in the UK (7 day average 12 or so) whether the costs of lockdown are higher than the lives saved. As the vaccination rate increases, the deaths from Covid will decrease further so there is a point at which modelling will indicate that the increase in deaths from releasing lockdown will not outweigh the deaths lockdown is causing.

 

No doubt

 

However, given your past histrionic claims about masks and COVID and lockdowns and the like this just doesn't feel like a productive discussion...

[Cyberyeti]

No doubt

 

However, given your past histrionic claims about masks and COVID and lockdowns and the like this just doesn't feel like a productive discussion...

 

I still have issues with masks, I get a panic attack after about 15-20 minutes in one so I have an exemption certificate I almost never use (I try to wear one and get outside before I need to take it off). It took me 3 or 4 types of mask before I found one that I could even wear for that long before my breathing and heart rate went haywire.

[cherdano]

If you want to look at the numbers without Cyberyeti's typically silly commentary, it's a report from the Office of National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlyalcoholspecificdeathsinenglandandwales/2001to2019registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter4octtodec2020provisionalregistrations

There previous release (linked from the report) had a bit more discussion about the possible reasons, but obviously a balanced, sensible and cautious one. "The researchers" certainly didn't make Cyberyeti's jumps to conclusions.

[cherdano]

It's the year 2027. A new covid-27 variant B.5.23.10055.22 has emerged in sub-Sahara Africa, devastating even rural communities there. Developed nations have doubled their mRNA vaccine production yet again, are still hoarding the supplies for themselves, injecting every of its citizen with minimally dosed 3-monthly booster shots regularly updated to keep out new variants that emerged in the developing world.

Meanwhile, Cyberyeti is still posting misguided anti-lockdown and anti-mask takes in the BBF watercooler, though a new anti-ventilation variant has emerged.

[hrothgar]

If you want to look at the numbers without Cyberyeti's typically silly commentary, it's a report from the Office of National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlyalcoholspecificdeathsinenglandandwales/2001to2019registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter4octtodec2020provisionalregistrations

There previous release (linked from the report) had a bit more discussion about the possible reasons, but obviously a balanced, sensible and cautious one. "The researchers" certainly didn't make Cyberyeti's jumps to conclusions.

 

Thanks for posting the study

 

It appears as if most of the deaths actually involve chronic conditions like cirrhosis of the liver which take a long time to develop.

 

Can't help but wonder whether the increase in deaths is more related to strains being placed on the health care system...

[hrothgar]

If you want to look at the numbers without Cyberyeti's typically silly commentary, it's a report from the Office of National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlyalcoholspecificdeathsinenglandandwales/2001to2019registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter4octtodec2020provisionalregistrations

There previous release (linked from the report) had a bit more discussion about the possible reasons, but obviously a balanced, sensible and cautious one. "The researchers" certainly didn't make Cyberyeti's jumps to conclusions.

 

Thanks for posting the study

 

It appears as if most of the deaths actually involve chronic conditions like cirrhosis of the liver which take a long time to develop.

 

Can't help but wonder whether the increase in deaths is more related to strains being placed on the health care system...

[Cyberyeti]

If you want to look at the numbers without Cyberyeti's typically silly commentary, it's a report from the Office of National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlyalcoholspecificdeathsinenglandandwales/2001to2019registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter4octtodec2020provisionalregistrations

There previous release (linked from the report) had a bit more discussion about the possible reasons, but obviously a balanced, sensible and cautious one. "The researchers" certainly didn't make Cyberyeti's jumps to conclusions.

 

The commentary I got was from one of the scientists involved on BBC radio and he said fairly precisely what I quoted (and section 5 indicates an increase in alcohol consumption causing this).

 

Also I am not "anti-lockdown" or "anti-mask", both have clearly been necessary. But there has been massive hindsight used and airbrushing of a period at the start of the pandemic where the science didn't necessarily indicate this (and indeed there were regular appearances from virologists and politicians quoting their advice on the media indicating the opposite).

 

You seem to want to mischaracterise me completely based on your own prejudices if I disagree with you. You do this on Brexit and Covid. I support the wearing of masks, I just have major issues doing so myself, so I wear one whenever I can. I think I've been anywhere I should wear a mask without one once or twice in the whole pandemic period, but have run out of the supermarket abandoning my trolley several times to go outside, get my mask off sit on a bench with my head between my legs for 10-15 mins then go back in and go through the checkout to avoid a panic attack.

 

I feel it is getting to the time to question whether ongoing lockdown is doing more damage than Covid would. Pretty much all the people at greatest risk have had one jab and many have had both. I'm in the 55-64 group with an underlying condition and should get my second at the end of this month. London is well ahead of this schedule, friends my age without underlying conditions are getting their second one now.

[pilowsky]

Just a little perspective here:

Covid19 is a disease that affects organs with a high concentration of protein that is related to the Renin-Angiotensin System.

One of the biggest organs is the Blood vessels.

And the heart, lungs, brain and kidney.

The observant amongst you will have noticed that people that get COVID19 often have problems related to the virus attacking these target organs.

The graph in the link below says it all.

incidence of this type of clotting = 0.4 per million.

with the pfizer/moderna or AZ vaccine it's ~4 per million.

If you get COVID19 it's 39/million.

 

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/blood-clots-up-to-10-times-more-common-with-covid

[Winstonm]

The CDC acknowledged Friday that airborne spread of COVID-19 among people more than 6 feet apart "has been repeatedly documented."

[barmar]

Did you look at the chart that Pilowsky referenced?

 

Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people

That is where he is drawing his 70.58% number from

 

However, he is describing this is

 

"70.58% of the population has received at least one shot"

 

In one case the numerator is "shots given" in the other it is "people inoculated"

 

If each and every person who received a shot only received one shot, the two numbers would match. However an extremely large number of people in Florida have received two shots, in which case the two values start to skew from one another.

To put it more simply:

 

Suppose half the population received 2 doses, and the other half received nothing. The chart would say 100%.

[barmar]

The collateral damage from Covid will be significant and ongoing. Drug/alcohol related deaths, suicide, murder, treatable conditions going untreated due to lack of hospital resources, mental illness, lower birth rates, disruptions in education. I'm sure the list goes on.

 

I trust no one was suggesting the lockdown should be lifted to "save these lives"?

An important use of studies like this is to help with planning for future pandemics.

 

The lockdowns have clearly been necessary, because we had no other effective way to slow down transmission. Which means that we should try to find better ways to slow a pandemic before it gets severe enough to require lockdowns, which results in all these other side effects (excess drinking, relationship problems, poorer education of children, etc.).

 

Acknowledging the mistakes that were made in 2020, and understanding their impacts, should make us better prepared in the future. Unless, of course, we happen to have a totally incompetent administration in place again.