Coronavirus

[Cyberyeti]

...for this government to put some concrete proposals forward, as you have done cherdano. Well done. It's the procrastinating and keeping us all in the dark that is now making things worse. Even if they have to move the goalposts as things develop, it's better to have something on the table than nothing at all.

 

 

This has been a problem with British politics for a while. It has been seen as more of a crime to change your mind than to carry on with the wrong plan. Corbyn always criticised a U-turn, even when it ultimately came up with the right idea.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 105813 (+1.6%), dead 26977 (+1.2%), no longer infected 66624 (+2.5%). Intensive care 1956 (-3%). Fatality rate 20.3%.

So back at least for a day to significant growth in positives, but intensive care continues to empty.

 

Yesterday the PM announced the measures for phase 2, inevitably controversial. Those of us who would settle for being able to go for a run or a ride are content, those who hoped to go to the seaside or to open their shop are not. Incredibly for Italy, the church did not get its way. Bridge wasn't even discussed.

[johnu]

I'm 55. The case that really concerns me is the one of the Romanian woman in Italy that's tested positive continuously for 8 weeks so far. I have colds that can last a year. My immune system has handled viruses strangely ever since I got virally induced ME. Being infectious and completely locked down for a long period is something I really don't want to contemplate.

What is unknown about COVID-19 is frightening. Many of the Wuhan survivors are retesting positive after testing negative, and some are like your example who continue to test positive. Is there a problem with the tests that in some circumstances the wrong result is returned. Are the people who are still testing positive actually infected and capable of spreading the virus, are survivors getting reinfected, or are survivors not getting rid of absolutely 100% of the virus and then the virus regains strength and reinfects them???

[y66]

James Paton at Bloomberg (April 27, 2020, 11:52 AM EDT)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/technology?sref=UHfKDqx7

 

A vaccine to halt the coronavirus pandemic could be available as early as this year for vulnerable groups such as health-care workers, even faster than initially thought, according to a key group at the heart of the global development effort.

 

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which is funding nine different coronavirus vaccine projects, has previously suggested a shot could be ready within 12 to 18 months, an already ambitious target. That assessment didn’t account for the possibility of companies working closely together to accelerate the process, faster enrollment in human trials and other factors, according to Richard Hatchett, the head of the Oslo-based organization.

 

“These are all things we are looking at now as potential opportunities to perhaps deliver vaccines even faster than the 12 to 18 months we were discussing,” he said on a call Monday.

 

As the number of coronavirus infections globally nears 3 million, the pressure is growing to come up with therapies and vaccines to combat the contagion. Dozens of companies around the world are pursuing a vaccine, among them Sanofi, Johnson & Johnson and Moderna Inc.

 

A University of Oxford team led by Sarah Gilbert, a professor of vaccinology, has begun trials of a potential vaccine and aims to get efficacy results as soon as September. Manufacturing is already underway.

 

Caution Urged

 

Some experts have called for caution, noting that most vaccines go through years of tests before they hit the market, and that 12 to 18 months would be extraordinarily fast. The coronavirus shots moving most rapidly are made with new technologies that have never proven useful in humans.

 

Hatchett said he doesn’t want to overpromise, but several vaccines backed by CEPI may enter a second phase of testing as soon as late spring or this summer. That means the first could become available in 2020 if they prove to be safe and effective, probably on an emergency-use basis. In that scenario, they might be accessible only to certain at-risk populations before being deployed more widely.

 

Developers are mindful of examples in the past where rapid vaccine development “unfortunately led to bad outcomes,” he said. “We take it with the utmost seriousness. We cannot cut corners. It’s absolutely critical that we ensure safety and efficacy.”

 

With experimental vaccines progressing, governments and health groups are turning to the challenge of producing enough doses to meet global demand and ensuring that shots are distributed equitably. The coalition wants to set up manufacturing in every region of the world and has been talking with other groups including Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which helps developing countries finance and distribute vaccines.

 

“Given the economic disruption that is caused by the pandemic and the global interconnectedness of the economy, if we don’t address the pandemic everywhere, we will still be at risk,” Hatchett said.

 

Global Coordination

 

The head of Sanofi, Paul Hudson, raised questions last week about Europe’s ability to manufacture enough doses and said the U.S. may be in a position to vaccinate first, thanks to the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, a government agency that backs vaccine development.

 

“We should really have a global perspective and make sure we don’t end up limiting the access because it’s produced in certain countries,” Erna Solberg, Norway’s prime minister, said on the call with CEPI’s head.

 

CEPI has secured commitments for about half of the $2 billion it estimates will be needed to develop the vaccines, and it may invest in 15 or more programs, Hatchett said.

 

The coalition is partnering with companies including Moderna and Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc., along with institutions such as Oxford and the University of Queensland in Australia.

 

Note: The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations was founded by the Wellcome Trust and by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

[FelicityR]

What is unknown about COVID-19 is frightening. Many of the Wuhan survivors are retesting positive after testing negative, and some are like your example who continue to test positive. Is there a problem with the tests that in some circumstances the wrong result is returned. Are the people who are still testing positive actually infected and capable of spreading the virus, are survivors getting reinfected, or are survivors not getting rid of absolutely 100% of the virus and then the virus regains strength and reinfects them???

 

I read a case yesterday of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days. Though I haven't read of any of the re-tested positives displaying a new set of symptoms - please correct me if you have read otherwise. We still do not understand covid-19 and how the virus undergoes change within the body. Given that some of the tests have been faulty - as you said - that could be the reason. I'm not surprised though. The word 'lingering' does crop up regularly within the health service. It does make some sense as general winter flu can go for months, especially in older people. They go through the worst of the symptoms for a couple of weeks but the milder symptoms stay with them for a few months, sometimes until the warmer weather.

 

Winter flu is a virus, too. Maybe covid-19 lingers in some patients in the same way. The body cannot fight it off entirely but it is controlled as the body has now produced enough antibodies to keep the virus in check.

[shyams]

I fear the UK is not doing well as per published statistics.

 

* Number of cases are still growing at a rate of 5%-6%. This is despite a total lockdown that has lasted longer than the incubation period for the virus!

* Number of deaths (in the hospitals) is still around 750-950 per day. And as we recently discovered, the death figures do not include those dying in old age homes who were never moved to hospitals.

* The administration is already falling short of committed tests and committed PPE supplies to hospitals and care homes. It appears that a large number of nurses/doctors/care home workers are catching the infection and some of them are sadly dying.

 

This is tragic mismanagement by the bureaucracy.

Today's ONS publication on weekly deaths makes for shocking reading and casts the UK bureaucracy & govt. in a very bad light.

 

As I previously said, the daily deaths in hospitals are understated and consequently the UK Govt. still insists that total Covid deaths so far as ~21,000. However, the ONS provisional figures on weekly deaths suggests a different picture (Link here)

 

As per the ONS, there were 22,300 deaths in the week ended 17 Apr compared to a previous 5-year average of 10,500 deaths. The 5-year average has a steady trend of 10,500-11,000 per week whereas the 2020 numbers have been steadily climbing. The number for week 13 (week ended 27-Mar) was 11,100 (800 higher vs. 5-year trend), for week 14 was 16,400 (6,000 higher), week 15 was 18,500 (8,000 higher) and week 16 was 22,350 (11,850 higher).

 

Truly a tragic mismanagement by the Govt.

[pilowsky]

Words matter. In bridge forums (or fora in pre-Fowler years) the word 'disaster' is thrown about with gay abandon. It is an exaggeration used with almost comic effect. People are called incompetent and stupid all the time. In my world where really serious things happen the overuse of such words just sounds silly. In medical terms. a disaster has a very specific meaning. Here is an excellent link. The whole point of a disaster as any anaesthetics specialist will tell you is that things go wrong in seconds and you have to be thoroughly prepared to react at a moments notice. It is a 'disaster' by definition if your well-prepared for resources are nevertheless overwhelmed. The Twin Towers were designed to cope with a direct hit from the largest airliner OF THE DAY crashing into them. But planes got bigger. The White House forgot all the lessons of the influenza pandemic until they were reminded by AIDS and then Ebola. Tragically in a fit of pettiness, John Bolton (remember him) and Colleagues figured that the Pandemic preparedness unit was pointless - presumably because it was an Obama initiative - and even though they saved no money at all, they subsumed it into other parts of the civil service. What happens when you drain the swamp of experts? That's right folks, no experts.

Meanwhile, there may well have been mismanagement at the British Home Office. Parkinson's Law suggests that some waste is almost certain. There was/is certainly incompetence at the White House. In time, it may be concluded that there are better words than incompetence to apply to the actions of the occupants of Trump's White House, I couldn't possibly say. As for other jurisdictions, it is hard to say the extent to which criminal mismanagement or negligence is occurring or not. Certainly, the profit motive that seems to be present at the White House to manipulate the management of the disaster response would not seem to be present to the same degree elsewhere. COVID-19 is also still in a highly plastic and pleomorphic phase: we have not even suffered a full season of it. I suspect that now is the time to be kind and supportive. Altruistic and empathetic. The time for allocation of blame will certainly arrive, but I don't think that we are there yet.

[Cyberyeti]

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/model-23-still-testing-positive-21919526 one example, not very specific as it's tabloid press, you can find many references to the same person in all sorts of places. I have no background in medicine but have studied university level chemistry, and the mathematics of epidemics.

[pilowsky]

https://www.mirror.c...sitive-21919526 one example, not very specific as it's tabloid press, you can find many references to the same person in all sorts of places. I have no background in medicine but have studied university level chemistry, and the mathematics of epidemics.

 

 

We have a saying in Australia "Is it true, or did you see it in the Murdoch Press" We have been saying this for more than a 100 years. It dates back to the First world war when Murdoch's father tried to stuff up the worlds best General -John Monash - in a fit of anti-semitic rage. Using a reference to a Murdoch paper to back up your ideas and then coupling it to your lack of qualifications in Medicine does you no credit at all. Basically read what I wrote. I was publishing on this ***** in the Lancet before you went to University. Or is 'have studied' a euphemism for 'didn't actually gain qualifications in'?

[Cyberyeti]

We have a saying in Australia "Is it true, or did you see it in the Murdoch Press" We have been saying this for more than a 100 years. It dates back to the First world war when Murdoch's father tried to stuff up the worlds best General -John Monash - in a fit of anti-semitic rage. Using a reference to a Murdoch paper to back up your ideas and then coupling it to your lack of qualifications in Medicine does you no credit at all. Basically read what I wrote. I was publishing on this ***** in the Lancet before you went to University. Or is 'have studied' a euphemism for 'didn't actually gain qualifications in'?

 

If you think the mirror is a Murdoch paper you have no clue about the UK, it's the left leaning opposite of the Sun which is the Murdoch paper. Also as I said you will find lots of references to that story all over press from various countries.

 

I studied chemistry in the mid 80s but didn't graduate, I graduated in maths much later.

[pilowsky]

Tabloid

[Cyberyeti]

Tabloid

 

Google her name (which is Bianca Dobroiu, sometimes spelt Biana depending on where you look) and you will find articles from all around the world about her, https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/the-italian-model-who-keeps-testing-positive-to-coronavirus-two-months-after-diagnosis-c-996498 being one of them (I don't know who owns 7 or the style of its news)

[FelicityR]

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

 

Ok. Maybe not commentating on any posts on BBO is the way forward. Goodbye all :(

[shyams]

Ok. Maybe not commentating on any posts on BBO is the way forward. Goodbye all :(

 

FelicityR, I suggest you relook at your decision above and continue to comment whenever you so desire.

 

* What you wrote is reported in the press/media, howsoever unpalatable that press/media outlet was to some others. You merely stated things here which you thought were interesting and noteworthy.

* Nothing of what you wrote is likely to cause people to take unreasonable or rash actions in their own life. You are not the President of the USA(*)

* If I recall, when you made suggestions on this post, you used to caveat such suggestions saying something like "not formal medical advice".

 

Why bother responding to random rants or taking it to heart? This is The Water Cooler; you are allowed to comment to your heart's desire regardless of what others say.

 

 

 

 

PS: My apologies for including the Clown President and you in the same sentence :)

[Cyberyeti]

PS: My apologies for including the Clown President and you in the same sentence :)

 

Why ? being included in a sentence with him usually makes the other person look good

[Cyberyeti]

I do some stuff with YouGov a polling organization. One of the questions that came up today indicates something interesting (it shows you the results after you vote, obviously there's a rounding issue):

 

 

So, do you think

(A) We should be very cautious about ending lockdown too early, or

(B) We should start easing restrictions slowly, but start now, or

© We should fully end lockdown now

Results so far...

A - 73%

B - 21%

C - 7%

 

So atm the people voting are still happy for this to continue, I wonder how long this will continue.

[cherdano]

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

Relax. This is the BBF water cooler, not the POTUS' daily coronavirus briefing. No one should be taking health or medical advice from this thread.

[johnu]

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

On the internet, anybody can be an astronaut, a hall of fame sports star, a cowboy, a "Noble" prize winner, and ahem, even a medical doctor. I haven't read anything you have written in this thread that makes me more likely to believe that you are a theoretical physicist rather than a professional miniature golfer.

 

But, since you "claim" to be a doctor, please definitely answer the following questions.

 

Do recovered COVID-19 patients have immunity from future infections in humans, and if so, how long?

 

Does having COVID-19 antibodies give immunity from future infections in humans, and if so, how long?

 

What does it mean when "recovered" COVID-19 patients continue to test positive? Have they not recovered, or are multiple tests giving the wrong results? Do you have to be a medical expert to understand articles that say experts don't know why anomalous cases and studies are producing the results that they produced?

 

Don't bother answering because nobody knows the answer. Not "real" experts in the field, not your average doctors, not your below competent doctors. Hopefully the "experts" will figure things out sometime in the future.

[pilowsky]

Clearly, you are watching too much television and sourcing your information from tabloid newspapers and science fiction novels. If you want to get your information from people that don't know anything at all that's fine by me. btw, testing positive could simply mean that a person has antibodies to the virus but does not have active disease. But since you are an expert on immunology as well as bridge I'm sure you knew that already. perhaps you could help Jared and Ivanka advise Deborah and Tony. They seem to need some of your help. Don't bother replying - you don't seem to know anything about anything.

[johnu]

Clearly, you are watching too much television and sourcing your information from tabloid newspapers and science fiction novels. If you want to get your information from people that don't know anything at all that's fine by me. btw, testing positive could simply mean that a person has antibodies to the virus but does not have active disease. But since you are an expert on immunology as well as bridge I'm sure you knew that already. perhaps you could help Jared and Ivanka advise Deborah and Tony. They seem to need some of your help. Don't bother replying - you don't seem to know anything about anything.

Ok, so am I correct to assume that you are actually a miniature golf professional? Maybe you can give me some advice. What is the best strategy to play that hole with the windmill clown face?

[pilowsky]

The best strategy to play that hole is by putting a sock in it .

[johnu]

The best strategy to play that hole is by putting a sock in it .

OMG, I took a wild guess and actually managed to guess your actual profession.

[johnu]

Ok. Maybe not commentating on any posts on BBO is the way forward. Goodbye all :(

I would ignore anything that pilowsky/thepossum/[insert nom de jour] has to say. You have a lot more to offer than he does.

[sfi]

I would ignore anything that pilowsky/thepossum/[insert nom de jour] has to say. You have a lot more to offer than he does.

+1

[thepossum]

That's what I like about bridge players. Experts at everything. My name is Paul Pilowsky. Don't know who the possum is, although most Sydney players have a few thoughts.

 

I would request you take this down Pilowsky. You are a disgrace posting a comment attacking me, and continuing the two earlier attacks by johnu and sfi.This is disgusting attack. How many more of you are involved in this disgusting ad hominem and disgraceful attacks against me personally and professionally. What a disgusting group of people. Who do you think you are. I have put up with years of the most disgrarceful and disgusting attacks and behaviour on this site and on some of the table in the club. You are just the latest to display a total lack of knowledge of decent behaviour - personally and professionally. Take it down please. Do you really want to be associated with the two who attacked me and have been involved in the attacks on here for years