Coronavirus

[y66]

Katrin Bennhold at NYT: With Broad, Random Tests for Antibodies, Germany Seeks Path Out of Lockdown

[hrothgar]

nteresting chart that I found genuinely surprising

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EV0dNDeXYAIYb7y?format=jpg&name=large

 

Looks like the low population density sections of many states actually has disproportionately high COVID-19 rates.  The current thinking is that these areas have dependencies on social infrastructure like Walmart which force the population to mix.  Also, lots of the jobs tend to require close contact with other people.  (Auto plants, meat processing plants, textiles)

Add in a population that is skeptical about social distancing, wearing masks, and ...

[y66]

Michael Lewis at Bloomberg: The Covid Test Lab That Could Save America

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 108257 (+0.4%), dead 23660 (+2%), no longer infected 47058 (+5%). Intensive care 2635 (-4%). Fatality rate 17.9%.

Today they closed one of the five intensive care facilities created in Milan two months ago, for lack of patients.

 

Looks like the low population density sections of many states actually has disproportionately high COVID-19 rates. The current thinking is that these areas have dependencies on social infrastructure like Walmart which force the population to mix. Also, lots of the jobs tend to require close contact with other people. (Auto plants, meat processing plants, textiles)

A similar paradox in the low density alpine valleys here - the Valle d'Aosta has the highest percentage of infection in Italy. Forced convergence on infrastructure and a lot of socialisation are theorised as part of the pattern.

But I continue to suspect that that particulate pollution is one of the keys to diffusion of this virus and alpine cities like Aosta and Bolzano are crossed by heavy road traffic (even during shutdown) and hemmed in by mountains on two sides. Some other low density areas hard hit like Andalusia, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha and Valencia in Spain are notoriously plagued by high particulate levels. I would be curious to know if this rings true in the USA or not.

[Cyberyeti]

Well I discovered the virus visited my family yesterday, apparently one of my cousins wife and kids had what they thought was a mild cold, then later he went down with a rather more serious problem, but all fine now. (I got this second hand, so don't know much detail)

[hrothgar]

Well I discovered the virus visited my family yesterday, apparently one of my cousins wife and kids had what they thought was a mild cold, then later he went down with a rather more serious problem, but all fine now. (I got this second hand, so don't know much detail)

 

Glad to hear that it turned out for the best

[hrothgar]

Well I discovered the virus visited my family yesterday, apparently one of my cousins wife and kids had what they thought was a mild cold, then later he went down with a rather more serious problem, but all fine now. (I got this second hand, so don't know much detail)

 

Glad to hear that it turned out for the best

[y66]

To safely reopen closed businesses and revive American social life, we need to perform many more tests—and focus them on the people most likely to spread COVID-19, not sick patients.

 

http://on.theatln.tc/zyprzP1

[pilowsky]

Some other writer was also credited with a viral epidemic originating in China, I think even Wuhan, in a book that was 30-40 years old (?), though for the life of me I cannot remember the author's name. Sadly, coronavirus is science fact, not fiction, and neither was the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and the only science fiction writer I know from that era was H.G. Wells.

 

hilarious - barry - remove this please even the water cooler should have some limits

[FelicityR]

hilarious - barry - remove this please even the water cooler should have some limits

 

What do you find hilarious? My sincere and heartfelt apologies if you really feel that I am not worthy of commenting on here. I was only illustrating to a new(ish) commentator that there are other science fiction books out there with a similar plot. I have found the book by searching online: Eyes of Darkness, by American author Dean Koontz, published in 1981. As I now understand, Mr Koontz is a very prolific horror/science fiction writer.

 

The book is a work of fiction, and was published nearly 40 years ago. It's just another one of those conspiracy theories that someone has put on the internet and other people have latched on to it.

 

I am neither a Sinophobe, nor a racist, I just remembered vaguely that it was mentioned some months ago in the national online press. I really didn't take any notice at the time: it's only a book.

 

As for H. G. Wells, he was nominated for the Nobel Prize for Literature several times, and many of this books have been very accurate of how the future would turn out, and yes I acknowledge others have been off-the-mark.

 

The plot of The Shape of Things to Come (which I read a very long time ago) makes interesting reading.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shape_of_Things_to_Come

 

On a more positive note, it does look like that the epidemic has plateaued in the UK: fewer deaths over the last few days than previously. I just hope that other nations will see their own covid-19 statistics begin to look better as time goes on.

 

Edit: Today's figures - deaths - have worryingly gone up again to over 780. Previous days were approx. 450 and 600. Let's hope it's only a temporary deviation

[cherdano]

If true, this is the best coronavirus news in the UK I have seen in a while: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

 

(If you live in the UK, you can help them gather more data by downloading the app and spending 30 seconds (when feeling well) a day with it. It will especially important once restrictions are eased - they might be able to detect a spike of infections in your area much quicker than even widespread testing, and of course much quicker than hospitalization numbers. )

[FelicityR]

If true, this is the best coronavirus news in the UK I have seen in a while: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

 

(If you live in the UK, you can help them gather more data by downloading the app and spending 30 seconds (when feeling well) a day with it. It will especially important once restrictions are eased - they might be able to detect a spike of infections in your area much quicker than even widespread testing, and of course much quicker than hospitalization numbers. )

 

It's a great computer tool to predict rates of infection, however the only drawback is that you have to be reliant on people downloading the app and entering the data. I am sure there are people who cannot be bothered with doing this together with other people who do not have the wherewithal to do so, e.g. the elderly.

 

But given that half-a-million people have used the app - thank you - it's at least a promising indication of where we as a nation are heading, plus further confirming that the lockdown measures are at least working in the main.

[barmar]

It's a great computer tool to predict rates of infection, however the only drawback is that you have to be reliant on people downloading the app and entering the data. I am sure there are people who cannot be bothered with doing this together with other people who do not have the wherewithal to do so, e.g. the elderly.

 

But given that half-a-million people have used the app - thank you - it's at least a promising indication of where we as a nation are heading, plus further confirming that the lockdown measures are at least working in the main.

As long as you get a statistically significant number of people using it, you should get reasonable results. Coverage doesn't have to be complete for the data to be useful, so longer as the coverage isn't overly biased.

[Cyberyeti]

I see Spain got 600K coronavirus testing kits from China, sent them back because they were crap, received the "improved" ones recently and have just sent them back because they're still terrible.

[johnu]

Based on recent study results, if you happen to get COVID-19, you should choose a drug treatment other than choroquine or hydroxychloroquine if you have any choice in the matter.

 

Malaria drugs fail to help coronavirus patients in controlled studies

 

“My own impression so far is that these medications are a colossal ‘Maybe,’” said Dr. Michael H. Pillinger, a professor of medicine at New York University and chief of rheumatology at the Veterans Affairs’ New York Harbor Healthcare System.

 

“Is there enough possible benefit that we could use these on a wing and prayer until something better comes along? I’m underwhelmed” by the evidence for that, Pillinger said.

A number of other studies have not show significant benefit, and have also show severe side effects affecting the heart.

 

Leave these drugs to the MAGA people who don't care if they don't work and may actually be more harmful than helpful.

[helene_t]

I see Spain got 600K coronavirus testing kits from China an unlicensed Chinese company which was not on the list which the Chinese government recommended Spain to use, sent them back because they were crap, received the "improved" ones recently and have just sent them back because they're still terrible.

F.Y.P.

[Cyberyeti]

F.Y.P.

 

This is true, but Turkey have had similar issues, it appears there are some bad batches even from licensed suppliers.

[cherdano]

It's a great computer tool to predict rates of infection, however the only drawback is that you have to be reliant on people downloading the app and entering the data. I am sure there are people who cannot be bothered with doing this together with other people who do not have the wherewithal to do so, e.g. the elderly.

 

But given that half-a-million people have used the app - thank you - it's at least a promising indication of where we as a nation are heading, plus further confirming that the lockdown measures are at least working in the main.

It's 2.5 millions using it.

I am not sure how they arrive at their total estimate of the number of infected, i.e. how they account for the obvious self-selection problem. (You'll be more interested in downloading the app and reporting your symptoms when you have symptoms.) But the change of time is almost certainly meaningful. Well, there are still problems with people who start or stop using the app (people dropping out of studies is basically the main unsolvable methodological problem of medical research), but this won't explain a 70% decline.

 

In any case, anyone who downloads the app and uses it no matter whether they have symptoms or not helps them improve the quality of their data.

[FelicityR]

There's a strange irony that most western countries now rely on China, and other low-income Asian countries, to manufacture everything from corona testing kits to PPE and everything else in between. Yes, I do get it as it is all about profit margins and that's what big business is about. But when the items are not reliable, faulty or just rubbish - and don't worry I have bought British and European items that have been far from perfect - surely we should change suppliers?

 

I realise that this is not quite possible given the urgency of the coronavirus epidemic, but there are plenty of pharma/biotech companies in the EU and the USA that could provide low cost kits. However, they need approval from the FDA and EU bodies, which begs the question how did we all end up buying so many duff Chinese kits? And how have the genuine Chinese kits got approval so quickly, too?

 

I have a gut feeling there are a small amount of people making a killing and profiteering at others expense here. The scandal with the lack of PPE is bad enough. Now there are other shady dealers milking the urgency to supply corona testing kits in various forms. Next will be the vaccines.

 

We might berate individuals selling over-priced hand sanitiser on eBay, but what happens at a corporate and governmental level is 100x more obscene.

[Winstonm]

There's a strange irony that most western countries now rely on China, and other low-income Asian countries, to manufacture everything from corona testing kits to PPE and everything else in between. Yes, I do get it as it is all about profit margins and that's what big business is about. But when the items are not reliable, faulty or just rubbish - and don't worry I have bought British and European items that have been far from perfect - surely we should change suppliers?

 

I realise that this is not quite possible given the urgency of the coronavirus epidemic, but there are plenty of pharma/biotech companies in the EU and the USA that could provide low cost kits. However, they need approval from the FDA and EU bodies, which begs the question how did we all end up buying so many duff Chinese kits? And how have the genuine Chinese kits got approval so quickly, too?

 

I have a gut feeling there are a small amount of people making a killing and profiteering at others expense here. The scandal with the lack of PPE is bad enough. Now there are other shady dealers milking the urgency to supply corona testing kits in various forms. Next will be the vaccines.

 

We might berate individuals selling over-priced hand sanitiser on eBay, but what happens at a corporate and governmental level is 100x more obscene.

 

Dear Felicity: Elections matter. Character of the elected matters.

[hrothgar]

The mayor of Las Vegas is nuts

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/22/carolyn-goodman-las-vegas-mayor-coronavirus-china-cooper-sot-vpx.cnn

[y66]

We are not a public health agency.

 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-deaths-airline-industry-airplanes-flying

[cherdano]

The mayor of Las Vegas is nuts

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/22/carolyn-goodman-las-vegas-mayor-coronavirus-china-cooper-sot-vpx.cnn

More importantly, the mayor of New York is nuts.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/nyc-mayor-coronavirus-asymptomatic-statements-978553/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-bill-de-blasio-failed-new-york-city/609379/

[shyams]

More importantly, the mayor of New York is nuts.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/nyc-mayor-coronavirus-asymptomatic-statements-978553/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-bill-de-blasio-failed-new-york-city/609379/

 

Thank you for sharing, cherdano.

 

I read both the articles; it made me feel de Blasio would make a great President!?! Maybe in 2024? :blink: :wacko: :rolleyes:

[shyams]

If true, this is the best coronavirus news in the UK I have seen in a while: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

 

(If you live in the UK, you can help them gather more data by downloading the app and spending 30 seconds (when feeling well) a day with it. It will especially important once restrictions are eased - they might be able to detect a spike of infections in your area much quicker than even widespread testing, and of course much quicker than hospitalization numbers. )

An article from the joinzoe website that may be useful reference for older people (link here)

 

We have looked at the symptoms experienced during proven COVID-19 infection by people who are over 85, report limiting health problems, or need help or physical aids. We found that this group of people testing positive for COVID-19 experienced more shortness of breath than other test-positive groups.

 

Interestingly, they also experienced more headache, confusion and diarrhoea than non-frail people. These symptoms are not normally considered typical of COVID-19.