Coronavirus

[barmar]

In a press conference a moment ago a person being referred to as 'the president' just announced that 50 to 100 million people died in the last flu pandemic. The true number is exactly half that. I do not expect everyone to be knowledgeable about stuff like this, but the genius head of state surrounded by medical advisers ought to know such a simple fact.

Since when have basic facts been a concern for him? He's claimed the largest inauguration crowd ever, the largest Electoral College victory in recent decades, and that he's #1 on Facbook.

 

He lives in a world of "alternative facts". Unfortunately, his supporters are happy to inhabit that same world.

[Chas_P]

In a press conference a moment ago a person being referred to as 'the president' just announced that 50 to 100 million people died in the last flu pandemic. The true number is exactly half that. I do not expect everyone to be knowledgeable about stuff like this, but the genius head of state surrounded by medical advisers ought to know such a simple fact.

 

From CDC.gov

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 95262 (+1%), dead 17669 (+3%), no longer infected 26491 (+9%). Intensive care 3792 (0%). Fatality rate 15.6%.

The intensive care data is the same as yesterday although the official report notes a drop of 99.

[pilowsky]

Chas. If you are trying to tell me that the person was correct, can I point out the CDC said 20-50 million. Not 50 to 100 million which is what the cretin at the press conference said. Is that what you are trying to say? Secondly, many of those deaths were CAUSED by the white house Surgeon General telling people to take lethal doses of Aspirin, AND also by the repatriation of young men in crowded troop ships. If they had not stuffed up these two simple policy measures the outcome would have been different. Very similar to the cruise ship problem of today. NSW Australia is now facing a huge problem because the government mishandled the disembarkation of a cruise ship.

[y66]

In this story by Arron Carroll at NYT/Upshot, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/upshot/coronavirus-four-benchmarks-reopening.html (updated April 7) public health experts offer four benchmarks that can serve as a guide for cities and states, eliminating some of the guesswork:

 

1. Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.
   
2. A state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms.
   
3. The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.
   
4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.
   

These four criteria are a baseline. Other experts think we will need to add serological testing, which is different from the viral detection going on now. This type of testing looks for antibodies in the blood that our bodies created to fight the infection, not the infection itself. These tests can be much cheaper and faster than the ones we’re currently using to detect the virus in sick people.

 

Testing for antibodies will tell us how many people in a community have already been infected, as opposed to currently infected, and may also provide information about future immunity.

 

Gregg Gonsalves, a professor of epidemiology and law at Yale, said: “I’d feel better if we had serological testing, and could preferentially allow those who are antibody positive and no longer infectious to return to work first. The point is, though, that we are nowhere even near accomplishing any of these criteria. Opening up before then will be met with a resurgence of the virus.”

 

He added, “That’s the thing that keeps me up every night.”

 

Until we get a vaccine or effective drug treatments, focusing on these major criteria, and directing efforts toward them, should help us determine how we are progressing locally, and how we might achieve each goal.

 

It would also prevent us from offering false hope about when America can start reopening. Instead of guesses, people could have clear answers about when they might be able to go back to a closer-to-normal way of life.

[Chas_P]

Chas. If you are trying to tell me that the person was correct, can I point out the CDC said 20-50 million.

 

Point out whatever you like. You ain't bothering me. But here, once again, is a direct quote from CDC.gov:

 

The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million

 

Here's the link if you want to read it for yourself.

[pilowsky]

Ah yes, you are being silly Chas. "At least" is an English phrase meaning less than. Since you are unable to spell Charles, maybe you cannot read English either. In fact, 20-50 million died NOT 50 to 100 million as claimed by the man impersonating a world leader. Of these Less than 50 million (still a substantial number obviously) many were killed because of the stupid advice to take lethal doses of Aspirin by the Surgeon General of the time. and by the idiotic policy of packing young soldiers into troop carriers like sardines while many Americans at home were practising social distancing. If the US administration of the time had been more on the ball. The toll would have been much lower. The same is true today. Plus ca change.

What does it take?

[PassedOut]

"At least" is an English phrase meaning less than.

Really? Then what does "at most" mean?

[pilowsky]

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing. NOT more than 50 million. Are you two related? In the flu pandemic, 20 to 50 million died. Look it up before you pass out.

[FelicityR]

In this story by Arron Carroll at NYT/Upshot, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/upshot/coronavirus-four-benchmarks-reopening.html (updated April 7) public health experts offer four benchmarks that can serve as a guide for cities and states, eliminating some of the guesswork:

 

1. Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care. 2. A state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms. 3. The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts. 4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

 

A sensible benchmark but quite flawed when faced with the reality of an epidemic: I've heard from my friends in both the UK and Ireland how difficult it is managing with the surfeit of coronavirus cases they are treating. Beyond covid-19, hospitals have to treat all other patients, too - so who then gets the priority? cancer, covid-19, road accidents patients, etc. Testing for everyone with symptoms is standard: testing all healthcare workers whether they had symptoms or not - which the UK was slow to do - would stop the spread inside and outside hospitals. Monitoring confirmed cases and contacts requires extra bureaucracy. Expecting to have a sustained reduction of cases for at least 14 days, as we have seen in other parts of the world, just doesn't happen until the spread is brought under control.

 

As for eliminating guesswork, here in the UK, it has been predicted by some epidemiologists that the daily number of UK deaths will peak this Sunday. It will be interesting to see if this prediction is right. I hope it is, but with 5400 new cases testing positive yesterday, I seriously believe that we are a long way from being out of the woods just yet.

[barmar]

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing. NOT more than 50 million. Are you two related? In the flu pandemic, 20 to 50 million died. Look it up before you pass out.

It's rare that I side with Chas, but in this case he's correct. "At least 50 million" means that 50 million is the low end of the estimate, and it could have been more.

 

However, different websites cite different estimates of this number. Wikipedia says

An estimate from 1991 states that the virus killed between 25 and 39 million people.[52] A 2005 estimate put the death toll at probably 50 million (less than 3% of the global population), and possibly as high as 100 million (more than 5%).[53][54] However, a reassessment in 2018 estimated the total to be about 17 million,[55] though this has been contested.[56] With a world population of 1.8 to 1.9 billion,[57] these estimates correspond to between 1 and 6 percent of the population.

So Trump chose to quote the most severe estimate, probably to intentionally downplay the severity of this pandemic.

 

But it's insane that any modern pandemic should be even close to as severe as the 1918 flu. Think about how much medical treatment and technology has progressed in the last century. In 1918, they treated it with aspirin and blood letting -- medicine was practically medieval at the time. Viruses hadn't even been discovered yet -- now we had the genome sequenced within days.

[pilowsky]

Except they didn't treat it with Aspirin. They killed people with Aspirin because they recommended a toxic dose. Just like Trump is recommending the usage of wide-scale use of a drug that is lethal in 1:2000 members of the population that have the gene for long QT syndrome. There is a reason for studying to be a Doctor as opposed to just guessing.

[FelicityR]

Except they didn't treat it with Aspirin. They killed people with Aspirin because they recommended a toxic dose.

 

Britain's finest bridge player, Terence Reese, also died of salicylate (aspirin) poisoning, as you might already know.

 

I can't imagine that they even knew in 1918 what dose of aspirin caused death. Add to which there were no big pharma/biotech companies with other drugs available in 1918, or the internet. So, it was a case of trust your chemist or doctor and hope for the best, which turned out to a contributing factor to the mortality in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

 

I'm not a Donald Trump fan, as you all already know, but as I said in a previous post, it's the doctors and consultants on the front line who will make the decisions, and in our first world countries, they should have the patient's records available before making decisions. And if hydroxychloroquine is a risk factor, it may be only administered as a last chance medication when the patient is desperately ill, by which time it might be too late anyway.

[Cyberyeti]

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing. NOT more than 50 million. Are you two related? In the flu pandemic, 20 to 50 million died. Look it up before you pass out.

 

Nope, I wouldn't buy your English lessons, at most 50 million means that 50M is the upper estimate, at least 50 million means it's the low estimate.

[pilowsky]

Please don't say things that you are not qualified to say. Aspirin (capital A because it is a trade name) was a drug made by the German company Bayer. I always remember this because in 1925 Bayer merged with other German companies to form IG Farben. They used slave labour during WWII, made heroin, and contributed to the Holocaust by manufacturing Zyklon B.

"...And if hydroxychloroquine is a risk factor, it may be only administered as a last chance medication when the patient is desperately ill, by which time it might be too late anyway."

Unfortunately your comment is incorrect. The problem is that Trump is recommending a drug that people can buy over the internet. You might be used to going to a Doctor and going through exhaustive screening and careful checks before you take any drug but in the real world in the middle of a pandemic that is not how it works. The Carpet-bagger in chief and his family of grafting idiots are promoting an idea that if taken willy-nilly may cause untold damage. That is what is happening. Worse still, some people are now also taking anything that sounds a bit like 'chloro-' anything and dying as a result. Impersonation of a doctor is a criminal offence. Apparently impersonation of a competent President is not.

We are in a different world. People are walking around not realising that bullets are flying around them.

As for the 50 million nonsense. Give up guys. Trump would not know a fact if it hit him on the head. The man is so repellent that he will probably live forever and not even catch the virus.

Everything he says is a lie, every word from his mouth is self-serving narcissism intended to deflect blame and enrich himself and his gang of criminal loons: and that's me being kind.

He also stated that he knows everything about South Korea including the fact that Seoul has a population of 38 million people. It doesn't, but it is 38 metres above sea-level. Perhaps you have an argument about how he is actually correct on that one? If you watch him struggling to read his notes you will quickly realise why he is so ill-informed. He obviously has the reading age of a 12-year-old child. That is why all his information comes from television and Millenial sycophants.

And people call me stupid!

[gordontd]

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing.

I would suggest you pay for English lessons if you believe that.

[cherdano]

Here is what wikipedia says:

The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million,

Seems a bit silly to debate a number that no one really knows. (And yeah I know that's a bit rich coming from me :) )

[FelicityR]

"...And if hydroxychloroquine is a risk factor, it may be only administered as a last chance medication when the patient is desperately ill, by which time it might be too late anyway."

Pilowsky says: Unfortunately your comment is incorrect. The problem is that Trump is recommending a drug that people can buy over the internet. You might be used to going to a Doctor and going through exhaustive screening and careful checks before you take any drug but in the real world in the middle of a pandemic that is not how it works.

 

I'll be honest. I was not fully aware just how over-bullish Donald Trump was about this drug, and, how readily available hydroxychloroquine was online. That really surprised, actually shocked, me. I suppose in this scenario, there are genuine online pharmacies who won't prescribe to a person with Long QT syndrome, but there are probably others that won't be so conscientious, and there are also all the fraudsters cashing in online, too, not forgetting the patients who will willing lie to get hold of this drug.

 

I was unaware that this drug was being touted as a prophylactic as opposed to an acute or critical care drug used by doctors in hospitals. That truly is a disaster waiting to happen, but guessing Donald Trump's way of thinking, a few 100 deaths here and there would be a price worth paying to keep, let's say, 10-20% less of the population having to use acute/critical medical services in hospitals. Hospital beds cost money, and ICU units are very expensive to run.

[Cyberyeti]

Best article I've seen dissecting the British response:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci/special-report-johnson-listened-to-his-scientists-about-coronavirus-but-they-were-slow-to-sound-the-alarm-idUSKBN21P1VF?fbclid=IwAR0M4okmpbYdaTlzrd4RZzLf494HE9QcaAXDvBIQevvpyGZmwuwkdV5Wqc0

[pilowsky]

Here is what wikipedia says:

 

Seems a bit silly to debate a number that no one really knows. (And yeah I know that's a bit rich coming from me :) )

 

I think my poodles want to have an intelligent conversation with you.

[PassedOut]

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing. NOT more than 50 million. Are you two related?

Trump is (to use his own term) scum, and stupid to boot. But when you double down like this on a foolish statement of your own, it detracts from your criticism of Trump: the pot calling the kettle black.

[FelicityR]

Best article I've seen dissecting the British response:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci/special-report-johnson-listened-to-his-scientists-about-coronavirus-but-they-were-slow-to-sound-the-alarm-idUSKBN21P1VF?fbclid=IwAR0M4okmpbYdaTlzrd4RZzLf494HE9QcaAXDvBIQevvpyGZmwuwkdV5Wqc0

 

I agree. An excellent read and analysis.

 

This article makes painful reading. There are plenty of 'Brainless Brits' who will make this lockdown longer that it needs be. It's about time the Police issued serious fines and arrested people for this type of behaviour. Telling them to 'disband the party and don't let it happen again' isn't getting through to the morons who have no conscience.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 96877 (+2%), dead 18279 (+4%), no longer infected 28470 (+8%). Intensive care 3605 (-5%). Fatality rate 15.9%.

Before anyone gets excited about the improvement, the fatality rate gives the lie to the under-reporting of positives and there are still disturbing inconsistencies in the data: for instance, the 3605 in intensive care is cited as being 88 less than yesterday, but yesterday it was 3792.

[y66]

Best article I've seen dissecting the British response:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci/special-report-johnson-listened-to-his-scientists-about-coronavirus-but-they-were-slow-to-sound-the-alarm-idUSKBN21P1VF?fbclid=IwAR0M4okmpbYdaTlzrd4RZzLf494HE9QcaAXDvBIQevvpyGZmwuwkdV5Wqc0

 

According to Medley, the chairman of the SPI-M pandemic modelling committee, no one now doubts, for all the initial reservations, that a lockdown was essential in Britain.

 

Medley added: “At the moment we don’t know what’s going to happen in six months. All we know is that unless we stop transmission now, the health service will collapse. Yep, that’s the only thing we know for sure.”

Can always do better next time.

[Chas_P]

And people call me stupid!

 

I, like many others, could offer a comment here, but......