Coronavirus

[Winstonm]

This seems surprising, maybe we will see exactly what is recommended. If a person thinks that they might have the virus then self-isolation is appropriate regardless of age, so I am guessing they are asking for extra caution from those who are most apt to need urgent care, and surely that applies to over 70. But four months? Surely they cannot confidently say that caution should be taken for exactly four months. Something like "until we get this under control, and we expect that to be a matter of months" seems better.

 

As mentioned earlier, I'm 81. I didn't play bridge Friday, and this was because of the virus. I usually walk with a group on Saturdays, I did not do it this yesterday, but that was because I have been doing quite a bit of walking and my knee was registering a complaint. I expect to be going with them next week. But I will probably skip the lunch in a crowded restaurant afterward.

We have to try for some version of sanity. Sitting on my butt for four months watching tv (yes, the telly to you) doesn't seem like a good idea, nor does sitting in a crowded room playing cards that everyone else has been handling. There are going to be a lot of people who have the virus but do not know that they have the virus. I hope no one gets their nose too much out of joint when I hold back on social events.

 

There was a polio epidemic in the US in 1949. I had to look up the date. I was 10 then and I do not recall staying out of the local swimming pool or the nearby lakes (I grew up in Minnesota, the land of 10,000 lakes), I probably should have stayed away, but I have no recollection of doing so.

 

Care is needed, maybe I would agree that a great deal of care is needed. I plan to do my grocery shopping at uncrowded hours, but I don't see myself as stopping my hikes. I'll keep my distance maybe, that sounds good. And I will listen to suggestions. The morning paper came wrapped in a bag as it always does. Several people handled that paper before it went in the bag, and then the deliverer handled the bag. I suppose I should think about this, but so far I have taken no precautions. It's stunning to think about just how many ways there are to potentially pass on a virus, which of course explains why it does, or can, get out of control.

 

You may want to consider shopping online for groceries and having them delivered if that is an option in your area.

[Trinidad]

The government of the Netherlands has announced more strict measures: Closing of schools, restaurants, bars, ...

 

This has caused long lines in front of the so called "Coffee shops", where one cannot buy coffee (or toilet paper), but can buy soft drugs, such as marihuana (Link).

 

Rik

[y66]

You may want to consider shopping online for groceries and having them delivered if that is an option in your area.

The way shopping online works at the Whole Foods in my neighborhood is that they pay people to shop for you at the local Whole Foods and then deliver your groceries to your door. So, if the local Whole Foods is out of it, you're still stuck. What we're seeing in Arlington, VA looks a lot like what happens when a major snowstorm is forecast if anyone can remember those days. People just go and buy a lot of stuff that they consider staples to beat the rush and because they don't know when they'll be able to shop again. With the virus, people are probably also thinking about minimizing the number of trips they make which affects how much they buy. My wife reported that the fresh produce section of the local Whole Foods was decimated when she went yesterday.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 20603 (+16%), dead 1809 (+26%), no longer infected 2355 (+20%). Fatality rate 8.1%.

Which further confirms the slight drop in growth rate.

 

The good news is that so far the south of Italy is still relatively unaffected, which is just as well given that the health system there is chronically overstretched and inefficient even without a pandemic. Outside of Lombardy it's the cities starting with P that are most worrying, for some odd coincidence (Parma, Padova, Piacenza, Pesaro).

 

Last I heard, my friend with symptoms had 40 degrees fever and has still not been able to talk to a medic. The TV has started to openly discuss the crisis of intensive care in Lombardy and the growing saturation of surrounding regions. The total number of people in intensive care due to virus is 1672, compared to 650 just 5 days ago. The percentage of positives receiving intensive care has dropped from 10.1% to 8.1% in the same time, hopefully just due to a greater proportion in the early stages of infection.

[Cyberyeti]

The government of the Netherlands has announced more strict measures: Closing of schools, restaurants, bars, ...

 

This has caused long lines in front of the so called "Coffee shops", where one cannot buy coffee (or toilet paper), but can buy soft drugs, such as marihuana (Link).

 

Rik

 

From what I've seen Belgium has this most right, shut the schools but use them as child care facilities for key workers so they don't have to stay home.

 

I have a good friend in the Hague, whose boyfriend (from the US) is studying in the Hague, but currently doing his study abroad in Belgium, with the uni closed but lessons being delivered remotely.

[gerry]

Wow.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

[y66]

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve” by Harry Stevens at WaPo

[FelicityR]

If restrictions on movement really are effective then a major drop must be coming soon. Today all non-essential shops plus bars/restaurants (which were open during the day) were closed down nationwide. Basically one can only leave house to go to work (if approved) or a medical visit or the local food shop - and must have a written declaration.

 

I, too, thank you for your Italian updates, pescetom.

 

It is surprising how many in the UK are still in denial about covid-19: panic buy essential goods in the shops, then go to crowded pubs and restaurants on Sunday (yesterday). If this online article in the Daily Mirror about what is happening in Italy doesn't make an impact on the British population, then nothing will. I have to say that I do find many of the British population nowadays, selfish, greedy, hypocritical, and so out-of-touch with what's happening in the rest of the world.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-pope-hits-empty-streets-21698823

 

The measures that have been brought into other countries will definitely happen here, too, I feel, within the next few days. If not, then there will be just more unnecessary deaths.

[pilowsky]

Just in, in Australia:

"To States and Territories

 

The ABF recommends that Bridge Clubs be temporarily closed for four weeks as from Wednesday 18th March 2020 (or a date next week set by the club) with the situation to be reviewed at the end of that period. A further extension may be imposed if necessary.

 

Almost all the clubs that I am a member of have sent messages saying that they are complying. One of them after discussing it first. I'm surprised that they felt the need to discuss it first.

[barmar]

All the clubs around here have closed.

 

Today the Massachusetts governor ordered that all restaurants stop only serve takeout.

[Winstonm]

French health ministry official Jérôme Salomon said Monday that the situation is "deteriorating very quickly" while providing this statistic: of the between 300 and 400 coronavirus patients in intensive care in France, about half of them are younger than 65, The New York Times reports.

 

It's time for all people and all age groups to get on board the stop the virus train.

[y66]

How Taiwan Used Big Data, Transparency and a Central Command to Protect Its People from Coronavirus (March 3) by Beth Duff-Brown at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International studies.

 

As of March 3, Taiwan had logged 42 confirmed cases and 1 death; the US had logged 107 cases and 6 deaths.

 

As of today, Taiwan has logged 67 confirmed cases and 1 death; the US has logged 3,823 cases and 67 deaths per NYT.

[Trinidad]

Wow.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

The German response was: "There is a limit to capitalism."

 

Rik

[pescetom]

The rain falls a little closer every day. A week ago the virus had reached cities 30 miles away. Three days ago was in the city 2 miles away. Today the first case in our road. So far our bridge club is untouched.

 

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 23073 (+20%), dead 2158 (+19%), no longer infected 2749 (+17%). Intensive care 1851 (+11%). Fatality rate 8.6%.

So back to the seemingly physiological 20% rate (except for intensive care) desite the first days of real shutdown.

[shyams]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-bought-the-west-time-with-the-coronavirus-the-west-squandered-it/ar-BB118VnD?li=AAggNb9

 

I think the Western governments (including the UK Govt.) are guilty of hubris. The level of unpreparedness is shocking.

 

Can anyone imagine our Health Secretary reaching out to China seeking to borrow doctors/nurses who have dealt with the COVID onslaught?

[johnu]

Google 'why toilet paper' and you'll find many many articles :) There's absolutely no connection whatsoever between toilet paper and the coronavirus, but it seems it's just some weird psychological effect.

It is surprising how many in the UK are still in denial about covid-19: panic buy essential goods in the shops, then go to crowded pubs and restaurants on Sunday (yesterday). If this online article in the Daily Mirror about what is happening in Italy doesn't make an impact on the British population, then nothing will. I have to say that I do find many of the British population nowadays, selfish, greedy, hypocritical, and so out-of-touch with what's happening in the rest of the world.

The USA takes a back seat B-) to nobody.

 

Oregon police want an end to 911 calls for toilet paper

 

The Newport Police Department put out a notice on Facebook urging residents to stop making emergency calls due to a toilet paper shortage.

 

"It's hard to believe that we even have to post this," the police wrote. "Do not call 9-1-1 just because you ran out of toilet paper. You will survive without our assistance."

[y66]

Trial of Coronavirus Vaccine Made by Moderna Begins in Seattle by Denise Grady at NYT

[FelicityR]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-bought-the-west-time-with-the-coronavirus-the-west-squandered-it/ar-BB118VnD?li=AAggNb9

 

I think the Western governments (including the UK Govt.) are guilty of hubris. The level of unpreparedness is shocking.

 

Hubris might be the right way to describe it, but it's also a case of 'Nimbyism' too. (Not in My Back Yard). All first world countries are just as guilty, Britain, the USA, the countries of the EU, etc. as the recent viral diseases, covid-19, SARS, MERS, Ebola have happened primarily in China and third world countries.

 

We look from afar thinking it's not going to happen here. As a first world country we should have learnt the lessons of the SARS (another type of coronavirus) outbreak in Canada.

 

The unpreparedness is shocking, but perhaps more accurately described as 'fatally flawed'. Because nothing of this nature has happened here in the UK, the government has been running around like headless chickens, or ostriches with their heads in the sand, trying to fathom the response.

 

I'm not blaming the current government, because I don't think Labour or a hung parliament would have dealt with it any better. The problem as you rightly say is this country, and many other western countries, were 'unprepared'.

 

The seriousness of the covid-19 outbreak is now top of the agenda. And whilst we haven't gone into total lockdown in the UK unlike other countries, that may happen quite soon. It's easy to point the blame with hindsight, but we must also take into consideration that there is probably no easy way to contain both the virus and keep a degree of normality that doesn't impact on a human level.

 

Shutting the schools will mean parents will have to look after children than go to work.

 

Asking people to work from home is just a soundbite as many people cannot work from home.

 

Asking people to stop going to work wholesale will just impact on their financial lives.

 

Etc. Etc.

 

There is not an easy solution...

 

Edit: I was a passenger in a car and we passed a large supermarket this morning 9am (Tesco) and the car park was full of vehicles, and people were leaving with trolleys rammed full of groceries and essentials. Goodness knows what it was actually like in the supermarket. From what I could see, nearly every till was open with lines of shoppers queueing. So much for social distancing...

 

What people forget is that shop assistants (bar people, waiters and waitresses, too) are probably one of the most lowly-paid workers in this country but they have to carry on serving the general public as if nothing has happened, but they are probably at the greatest risk of contracting the virus, and maybe passing the virus on. And if they don't come into work they probably will lose their jobs.

[Trinidad]

Hubris might be the right way to describe it, but it's also a case of 'Nimbyism' too. (Not in My Back Yard). All first world countries are just as guilty, Britain, the USA, the countries of the EU, etc. as the recent viral diseases, covid-19, SARS, MERS, Ebola have happened primarily in China and third world countries.

I do not think it is particularly fair to accuse governments to be ill prepared. You summed up reality in your last sentence:

There is not an easy solution...

Let's backtrack a little, summarize what has happened so far and how my government reacted.

 

• 
   
  
• End of 2019, a new virus appears in China. After a while, the WHO comments and states that it hopes that the virus can be contained. The goverment follows what is going on.
  
• The virus spreads. It is clear that there is a shortage of ICU facilities at the places where the virus has spread. My government reacted by stating that the question is not whether the virus will hit us, but when it will. They start to expand the amount of ICU facilities, the population is made aware that something big is coming: People will die. Meanwhile: wash your hands, etc...
  
• The virus is here and spreads. People are killed. The prime minister is on national TV. He starts by giving his condolences to those who have lost family or a friend. He wishes the best for those who have the disease right now and then he explains clearly what the strategy is: Flatten the curve, control the outbreak, let it run as slowly as possible through the population in a controlled manner. Measures include shutting down bars, restaurants and schools, as well as announcing support for the sectors of the economy that are taking the hit. He also explains why this is the strategy: It is based on facts and science. The scientific community supports this. The only part where there was discussion amongst experts related to the closing of schools. On all other areas, there is vast (unanimous, anyone?) support for the government among the experts.
  

I am sorry, but given the fact that we have this virus, what should my government have done differently? I think that they are keeping their heads cool, make solid decisions, based on the best evidence available. They seem as well prepared as they can be and they are taking preparations for the future: This includes evaluating more drastic measures for the near future, but also measures about how to continue when the virus has past.

 

I am sure that in a little while everybody will see what they obviously did wrong. Hindsight will be 20-20, as usual.

 

But I do not see any signs of my government being ill prepared. On the contrary, I think that they are doing exactly what they should do.

 

Rik

[FelicityR]

I do not think it is particularly fair to accuse governments to be ill prepared. You summed up reality in your last sentence:

Let's backtrack a little, summarize what has happened so far and how my government reacted.

 

Yes, maybe the Dutch government was better prepared than the one in the UK. I agree, Rik. But surely all governments should had had some contingency plan in place just in case the virus couldn't be contained. It's as though (especially in this country) there are reacting to each and every event as it happens. A case of locking the stable door after the horse has bolted (gone).

[Cyberyeti]

I think the truth is that both the government and the scientists were unprepared. Our government seems to be accepting the scientific advice they are being given, and that is changing. In cases like this, you make a model, make predictions, check the validity of your model as time goes on, and if necessary modify some of the assumptions if they're proving inaccurate. With not a huge amount known about the virus, the science has changed over the last few days, and the government's stance has changed with it.

 

Somebody put this up on FB, and I think it's where we are now:

 

"To explain Boris’s method for anybody who doesn’t quite get it I’m not saying if I agree with his plan or not but here goes

 

His plan is to segregate all vulnerable people (older, illand at risk) let’s call this group A

 

Anyone looking after the older,ill and at risk can be group B

 

The general population generally healthy can be group C

 

Group C needs to go about it’s business keeping the country moving kids at school us at work

 

Group B looks after group A and avoids contact with C

 

Group C is allowed to contract the virus and because it’s generally healthy it can cope with it better than group A

 

Group A and B are almost self isolating without the virus to avoid putting strain on the NHS and reducing the risk of getting the virus and then needing the NHS

 

Group C (the generally healthy) go through the cycle of contracting the virus self isolating and being looked after by healthy family members, friends and the local community

Anyone who has complications gets looked after by the NHS while groups A and B are kept away The NHS are not strained by A and B while its looking after complicated cases in C

 

As group C comes full circle and recovers it divides in to groups that take group B’s position looking after group A allowing group B to go though the cycle

 

With B and C though the cycle

A is free to have NHS to itself because B and C are now clear from illness and infection and hopefully have a degree of immunity from getting it again this season.

 

Hope this helps

 

Everyone has a job to do for the above to work

 

Stay safe and keep washing those hands"

[Winstonm]

Yes, maybe the Dutch government was better prepared than the one in the UK. I agree, Rik. But surely all governments should had had some contingency plan in place just in case the virus couldn't be contained. It's as though (especially in this country) there are reacting to each and every event as it happens. A case of locking the stable door after the horse has bolted (gone).

 

A lot of the problem has been created by a type of thinking that can be traced all the way back to economist Milton Freedman. It is this type of market mentality that has led to the ideas of smaller governments with less government intervention and a reliance on "the market" to solve problems. Obviously, there are problems with this approach, and an important one is that preparing for an unlikely event is something governments can do - because they can afford to - and private enterprise won't do, even if they can afford it, because it doesn't generate enough return on investment.

 

This does not mean I am advocating all socialism, but rather a reasonable approach to solving problems where the best method is used. Let's not be slaves to ideology.

[Trinidad]

I think the truth is that both the government and the scientists were unprepared.

I don't agree that the scientists were unprepared. The scientists were prepared to deal with an outbreak of a virus: The knowledge is there to identify the virus, the knowledge is there to track it, the knowledge is there to develop a test, the knowledge is there to study the outbreak and model it. The knowledge is there to find a cure and a vaccine. The scientists were ready. In fact, they were very well prepared.

 

Of course, the scientists were not prepared for an outbreak of Covid-19. How could they be? Before November 2019 there was no such thing as Covid-19, (hence the "19"). It is hard to study something that doesn't exist.

 

In this short time that this virus has been going around, and, therefore, has been available to scientists:

• 
   
  
• Scientists have isolated and identified the virus.
  
• They have recorded the DNA fingerprint.
  
• They are recording the family tree of the virus (No, Mr. Trump, the American outbreak did not come from Europe.)
  
• They developed test methods.
  
• Data are gathered on the spread of the virus through the population. They are interpreted and modeled, despite the fact that the data is hard to interpret (the infection in South Korea contains a heavy bias, since the infection started around a religious group). Predictions are made based on these models.
  
• An antibody has already been identified that is able to block the virus (i.e. not a perspective for a vaccine, but for a cure). Of course, it takes time to develop ways to produce it, formulate a dosage form, and have it properly tested (and it may not get approved).
  
• Progress is made on the development of a vaccine.
  

All this has been done, using methods that were ready to use as soon as the outbreak started. The scientists were prepared.

 

Keep in mind that only 4(!) months have passed since the first person in Wuhan was infected.

 

Don't forget that scientist are humans, not wizzards or witches who could stop this by casting a simple spell. Science is hard work. And the scientists have been working hard and continue to do so.

 

Who, then, was not prepared? The population was not prepared. The population was not prepared to accept the inevitable: Lots of people are going to die, many will live but not recover completely, and even more will have been seriously ill. This potentially includes you or me (for all options mentioned).

 

Is it bad that the population is not prepared? No, that is good. In fact, it is excellent!! (Just not now.) We are all a lot happier if we do not have to worry each day that a lot of people might die. It would not want to live in a world whose population "is prepared" as soon as someone sneezes in Wuhan.

 

I understand the frustrations. It is human to look for someone to blame for this mess (and, yes, we are in a mess): The Chinese, the government, the scientists, the weather man (?!?!). But the blame should be put where it belongs: sh-t simply happens. Western society has not had a lot of sh-t in the past years (decades) and, as a result, "we, the people" are ill-prepared. We should be grateful for the great time we have had... and that we will get again once this is over. Meanwhile... keep your properly washed fingers crossed... and let's take care of each other.

 

Rik

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 26062 (+13%), dead 2503 (+16%), no longer infected 2941 (+7%). Intensive care 2060 (+11%). Fatality rate 8.8%.

So another moderate drop in growth rate, and a slightly larger drop in intensive care despite a slight increase in fatality.

 

Nobody in Italy is explicitly discussing triage choices yet but this Reuters article raises the issue.

To get an idea of how bad this virus can be despite originally excellent health care, the Province of Bergamo (population 120,000) which in normal times has 3-4 deaths daily, had 350+ deaths in a week, with 51 on March 11 alone. There is a 5 days wait at the crematorium even burning multiple coffins at once.

[helene_t]

• 
   
  
• Scientists have isolated and identified the virus.
  
• They have recorded the DNA fingerprint.
  
• They are recording the family tree of the virus (No, Mr. Trump, the American outbreak did not come from Europe.)
  
• They developed test methods.
  
• Data are gathered on the spread of the virus through the population. They are interpreted and modeled, despite the fact that the data is hard to interpret (the infection in South Korea contains a heavy bias, since the infection started around a religious group). Predictions are made based on these models.
  
• An antibody has already been identified that is able to block the virus (i.e. not a perspective for a vaccine, but for a cure). Of course, it takes time to develop ways to produce it, formulate a dosage form, and have it properly tested (and it may not get approved).
  
• Progress is made on the development of a vaccine.
  

And then there's UV disinfection robots:

https://www.therobotreport.com/coronavirus-fight-china-gets-boost-uvd-disinfection-robots/