Coronavirus

[johnu]

A leader of a movement touting toxic bleach as a 'miracle' COVID-19 cure has been charged following a 5-year-old boy's death

 

Argentinian authorities charged Andreas Kalcker with falsely promoting toxic bleach as a medical cure.

 

The investigation was launched after a boy, 5, died after being given the substance by his parents.

 

Chlorine dioxide is a type of industrial bleaching agent commonly used to treat wood products.

 

Honestly, I find this story hard to believe. How is this guy not a Republican congressman or a Fox Propaganda "entertainer". Is chlorine dioxide anti-vaxxers next hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin?

[pilowsky]

Swallowing bleach is a surprisingly common method for attempting suicide (e.g. https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/16885747/).

Unfortunately, the lines between psychosis and reality are blurred because of the former thingy's recommendation.

[johnu]

Bat Superpowers

 

There was an interesting Nova (US public tv) program about bats and why they are filled with viruses (e.g. coronaviruses) yet never seem to get sick from them. A subthread of the show was that bats live extraordinarily long lives for their size, and don't seem to age and how humans could potentially benefit from knowing why.

 

One theory of their virus resistance is that their resistance to viruses came about when the first early bats started to fly and their immune systems developed a resistance to causing inflammation caused by the physical exertion of flying which stressed their immune systems. In Covid, cytokine storms an uncontrollable inflammatory response from the immune system which end up harming the host.

 

Another theory is that because bats have such an active and strong immune system, coronaviruses that exist in bats are a kind of super strain, so when they jump species they cause a lot more damage.

[pilowsky]

Bat Superpowers

 

There was an interesting Nova (US public tv) program about bats and why they are filled with viruses (e.g. coronaviruses) yet never seem to get sick from them. A subthread of the show was that bats live extraordinarily long lives for their size, and don't seem to age and how humans could potentially benefit from knowing why.

 

One theory of their virus resistance is that their resistance to viruses came about when the first early bats started to fly and their immune systems developed a resistance to causing inflammation caused by the physical exertion of flying which stressed their immune systems. In Covid, cytokine storms an uncontrollable inflammatory response from the immune system which end up harming the host.

 

Another theory is that because bats have such an active and strong immune system, coronaviruses that exist in bats are a kind of super strain, so when they jump species they cause a lot more damage.

Bats have a relatively low average heart rate - especially when hibernating (obviously).

Longevity is inversely related to heart rate; Across (but not within) species.

The blue-throated hummingbird doesn't stand a chance.

We can draw a straight line from human destruction of the climate to the reduction of habitat to the intermingling of species to the admixture of viral reservoirs that don't usually see humans.

[pescetom]

Bats have a relatively low average heart rate - especially when hibernating (obviously).

Longevity is inversely related to heart rate; Across (but not within) species.

The blue-throated hummingbird doesn't stand a chance.

 

This paper seems to conclude that across species, longevity is more about scale than heart rate; fast beating chickens live almost as long as slow beating big dogs (and reach the same lifetime total of beats as a human).

Unfortunately it doesn't include data for bats. Fascinating to learn about giraffe blood pressure and why, though B-)

[pilowsky]

In February 2020 - that was a long time ago - Anthony Fauci and Robert Redfield penned an Editorial for the New England Journal of Medicine.

You can read it here.

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

[pilowsky]

A lot of heat is being generated over the Ivermectin story.

It seems that anything that has anything to do with COVID19 now takes on a political flavour.

Yes. Getting vaccinated is the number one thing to do.

Politicising the development of medications for people that get the disease is bad.

 

Here is a reference to an article entitled "Ivermectin as a potential treatment for COVID-19?"

The authors (actual experts) point out several critical inadequacies in the RCT recently conducted.

[pilowsky]

This year the Nobel prize for economics (some would argue an oxymoron) went to Card (Canada) for "Empirical contributions to labour economics" and to Angrist (USA) and Imbens (Netherlands) for "Methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships". All three now work in the USA.

The idea is that natural experiments are everywhere (Card), and careful observation allows one to infer causal relationships when examining the data appropriately (Angrist and Imbens).

Natural experiments have been around for a very long time. I think that it was the development of the mathematical modelling that was so exciting to the Nobel committee.

This award led me to wonder what we can infer from uptake rates of the vaccine in countries where it is freely available.

I don't know enough about the methodology, but I see that the literature is already pretty rich in this kind of work.

Here are two commentaries in Circulation (a very highly ranked journal in the field of cardiology):https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.120.048671 and https://www.ahajourn...AHA.120.047538.

 

Uptake of COVID vaccination in Australia seems to be reaching a plateau at about 90-92% of people aged 16 and over.

Many factors can be considered important when comparing these data to underdeveloped 2nd world countries such as Florida where the uptake rate for vaccination seems a little lower.

One could argue that the concept of 'mateship' which is deeply embedded in Australian culture has led to our excellent uptake despite the efforts of the Murdoch press here to **** us up, and despite the ingrained contempt for the government (and pretty reasonable it is too), Australians have a well-developed sense of helping their mates (other Australians).

Even so, there does seem to be a population of about 5-10% who are as silly as a wheel. Nothing will convince them not to die.

I've met many of them; reality is just not their thing.

[y66]

Good take on the endgame for covid from Bob Wachter via David Leonhardt at NYT:

 

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20211112&instance_id=45221&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=59211987&segment_id=74203&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F1d1e83a9-bf05-54e1-8903-edd928275647&user_id=2d8b72dd84a9ff194896ed87b2d9c72a

[Gilithin]

Even so, there does seem to be a population of about 5-10% who are as silly as a wheel. Nothing will convince them not to die.

I've met many of them; reality is just not their thing.

Valar morghulis.

[y66]

From Covid-19 is likely to fade away in 2022 by Edward Carr, Deputy Editor, The Economist:

 

Pandemics do not die—they fade away. And that is what covid-19 is likely to do in 2022. True, there will be local and seasonal flare-ups, especially in chronically undervaccinated countries. Epidemiologists will also need to watch out for new variants that might be capable of outflanking the immunity provided by vaccines. Even so, over the coming years, as covid settles into its fate as an endemic disease, like flu or the common cold, life in most of the world is likely to return to normal—at least, the post-pandemic normal.

 

Behind this prospect lie both a stunning success and a depressing failure. The success is that very large numbers of people have been vaccinated and that, at each stage of infection from mild symptoms to intensive care, new medicines can now greatly reduce the risk of death.

Covid is not done yet. But by 2023, it will no longer be a life-threatening disease for most people in the developed world. It will still pose a deadly danger to billions in the poor world. But the same is, sadly, true of many other conditions. Covid will be well on the way to becoming just another disease.

[cherdano]

Good take on the endgame for covid from Bob Wachter via David Leonhardt at NYT:

 

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20211112&instance_id=45221&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=59211987&segment_id=74203&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F1d1e83a9-bf05-54e1-8903-edd928275647&user_id=2d8b72dd84a9ff194896ed87b2d9c72a

Uhm.

[quote name=Dr. Angela Rasmussen

@angie_rasmussen]Which precautions should stay and which should go?

 

Many experts have many opinions on this, but you should know that David Leonhardt is not one of them. Actual experts/responsible journalists don’t cherry-pick quotes & data to justify the conclusion they want to be true.

Note that Bob Wachter also felt the need to clarify his quotes -

 

The timing of this article is particularly Leonhardtish. With its slow booster uptake, the next US wave is certainly coming. If you live in the US and want covid to be over, the best thing to do is to stop reading Leonhardt and instead urge all your friends and relatives who are eligible to get a booster. Anyone over 65, anyone with health conditions (quite broad), anyone working in a "high risk" (healthcare, schools) setting is eligible if they've been fully vaccinated for 6 months.

[pilowsky]

NO VAX NO VOTE

 

 

In a shock move yesterday the Governor has decided that only fully vaccinated individuals will be allowed to vote.

 

The Governor said that too many unidentified people are entering our polling stations.

 

"To prevent these people from casting illegal ballots, I am today signing into law a bill that requires all voters to identify themselves by showing proof of vaccination. "

 

 

[y66]

Uhm.

 

Note that Bob Wachter also felt the need to clarify his quotes -

 

The timing of this article is particularly Leonhardtish. With its slow booster uptake, the next US wave is certainly coming. If you live in the US and want covid to be over, the best thing to do is to stop reading Leonhardt and instead urge all your friends and relatives who are eligible to get a booster. Anyone over 65, anyone with health conditions (quite broad), anyone working in a "high risk" (healthcare, schools) setting is eligible if they've been fully vaccinated for 6 months.

Leonhardt starts off his Nov 12 newsletter with

 

Among the Covid experts I regularly talk with, Dr. Robert Wachter is one of the more cautious. He worries about “long Covid,” and he believes that many people should receive booster shots.

As you point out, that's not exactly a forceful case for getting boosters when, as Wachter pointed out yesterday:

 

If vax used to prevent 95% of infectns, then wanes, but protection can be restored via safe/cheap boost (not only prevents cases/Long Covid–it also keeps community safer), why NOT do that?

and as Eric Topol points out today:

 

The new data from England today shows a booster (3rd) shot increased vaccine effectiveness from 44% to 93% for Astra Zeneca and from 62.5 to 94% for Pfizer, vs symptomatic infection, age 50+

[Gilithin]

If you live in the US and want covid to be over, the best thing to do is to stop reading Leonhardt and instead urge all your friends and relatives who are eligible to get a booster. Anyone over 65, anyone with health conditions (quite broad), anyone working in a "high risk" (healthcare, schools) setting is eligible if they've been fully vaccinated for 6 months.

and as Eric Topol points out today:

The last information I saw was recommending a booster for anyone in the right categories over 40.

[y66]

Noah Smith interviewing Eric Topol re: omicron variant:

 

More at

[Chas_P]

Noah Smith interviewing Eric Topol re: omicron variant:

 

More at

What happened to Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, Nu, and Xi? Same as preparations A through G?

[pilowsky]

Today, the President of the United States and the Prime Ministers of the UK and Australia announced a new swimming pool policy.

From Monday at midnight EST, only Federated Australian UK & US alliance members will be permitted to swim in the North section of the pool.

 

To protect our citizens from unplanned discharges, only alliance members are permitted to swim in our part of the pool.

[Cyberyeti]

Today, the President of the United States and the Prime Ministers of the UK and Australia announced a new swimming pool policy.

From Monday at midnight EST, only Federated Australian UK & US alliance members will be permitted to swim in the North section of the pool.

 

 

Sounded more like they wanted the top half of the pool and southern Africa could have the bottom half.

[cherdano]

The last information I saw was recommending a booster for anyone in the right categories over 40.

The CDC recommends that everyone over 50 should get a booster, and everyone over 18 may get a booster. To which I Eric Topol and Michael Osterholm reply:

"By not strongly urging all fully vaccinated adults to get a 3rd shot, the @CDCgov has failed its responsibility to protect the public, missing a strategy that would limit the surge in cases,"

[kenberg]

I have been absorbing the idea of Omicron over the last two days. Friday we went to the store and bought some toilet paper, it was restricted in the amount you could buy. Good. We wanted to be sure we had some, we were not planning on buying out the store. Friday evening I called some family, some had heard the news already, some hadn't. And then I just took some time to absorb the news and talk with Becky about it.

 

 

We had never stopped wearing masks while shopping even if those taking the credit card at the cash register were unmasked. We once again were becoming more social, we will probably retreat some from that.

 

Of course a month from now we might look back and say "That was nothing, what were we worried about?", but I very much doubt that will be the case.

 

Kids need playmates. I think they need playmates more than they need to learn the capital cities of states. I suppose the three Rs are always important. I hope we can do a good job with this. Priorities will be important.

[Winstonm]

Delta variant doesn’t sound frightening - but The Omicron sounds like the title of a Stephen King novel.

 

Take the shot or the Omicron will come for you.

[pilowsky]

Delta variant doesn't sound frightening - but The Omicron sounds like the title of a Stephen King novel.

 

Take the shot or the Omicron will come for you.

 

Wait until we get to Omega.

[Winstonm]

Wait until we get to Omega.

 

That would be a remake - we've already had

with Charleston Heston.

 

Beside, with Omicron you could have a kid sleepwalking carrying a large knife while croaking Nor Cimo, Nor Cimo, Nor Cimo, which sounds spookier than Age Mo, Age Mo, Age Mo.

[Chas_P]

Wait until we get to Omega.

I got my answer today about Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, Nu, and Xi. The WHO said they skipped Nu because it sounds like New and Xi because it's a common name in China. I'm not making this up; I read it on the internet so it must be absolutely true. But I'm still puzzled about Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda and Mu. Where'd they go?