Coronavirus

[hrothgar]

 

Also, try to be more imaginative when insulting people.

Your current level of ranting is becoming boring.

 

Ok

 

I think that you are nearing the end of your life.

Your mental faculties are declining.

You're unloved and you're desperate for attention.

 

You're reducing to trolling news groups because any form of attention (no matter how ugly and disrespectful) is better than sitting alone, being ignored, and confronting your own mortality.

 

Always remember, both the newsgroup and the world will be better when you are gone. This is not to say that your presence will be missed or your absence will be consciously noticed.

 

However, any place that you are not is better for your absence.

[cherdano]

Well, that escalated quickly.

[Gilithin]

Some parts of China - which is a huge country by landmass - have 'high pollution' - most of it does not.

This is, I believe, the claim that started the side issue. Hrothgar provided some specific data to suggest that the actual level of pollution in China does not match the statement. How about providing some evidence of your own to back up your position? This is usually how adult debate works.

[pilowsky]

Yes, but he isn't improving.

Anytime he speaks I get the sense that I'm having a conversation with a fungus.

There's no humour in his bile.

Still, I suppose he's good at something - arithmetic perhaps?

I give the last rant a C-.

[barmar]

China had early incidence of the pandemic, has high pollution, and I would say a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing". So basically he is only 100% wrong.

Correlation doesn't mean that there can't be outliers.

[hrothgar]

 

Anytime he speaks I get the sense that I'm having a conversation with a fungus.

 

 

Sorry about that.

 

I'm actually considered a very good writer.

I certainly get paid lots and lots of money for it.

 

I'll make an effort to dumb things down even more and avoid words with more than two syllable when writing for you.

I can't promise that you'll be able to follow along, but perhaps it will help.

[cherdano]

Correlation doesn't mean that there can't be outliers.

Come on. "Correlation"? Between covid deaths and a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing"?? Which would be measured--how?

 

This was obviously just a typical successful guy getting asked about something he has no clue about, and instead of being able to answer "I don't know, I haven't looked at data about this since last summer" he bloviates some non-sense. I don't blame him, if I had been this successful, I would probably also enjoy opinionating on everything I've ever formed an opinion on - I just can't believe anyone is listening.

I can't believe there are already three people in this thread taking this comment seriously.

[pilowsky]

Perhaps the problem lies in the use of the word "correlation".

On a Bridge forum - full of people with a maths background - it has a very specific meaning.

In the social sciences, the meaning could be somewhat looser.

Who knows what he actually said or meant or what was lost in translation. Or even what the question was.

My sister used to get asked questions by the London press of the form - "Is there any relationship between hair colour and eating disorders in women?"

What she called the "Lady Di question."

People "see" relationships between things where none exists all the time.

On this forum problems related to "Theory of Mind" are a major source of excitement.

In a recent study published in Nature, electrodes were used to record neuronal responses to people being asked questions along the lines of "if you hide something that Tom put on the counter, where does Tom think it is?"

Unsurprisingly some neurons were activated and some were not.

[pilowsky]

Well, if I knew this question could get settled, I'd certainly be happy to make a bet with Tyler Cowen that SARS-Cov-2 is a normal zoonotic virus.

 

Returning to more mundane matters.

It now seems that haematophages (not Hrothgar in this case) are potential vectors for SARS-CoV-2.

You can read the full paper here.

Or look at the diagram here.

The authors are careful to point out that this is still theoretical, but it does point to the known difficulty in pinpointing the elements in the chain of transmission.

Biology is pretty cunning. It seems unlikely that it would need any help from a laboratory.

Laboratory leakage is always possible but given what we know about SARS biology: less likely. How "less likely" is the problem.

Abstract

Coronavirus-like organisms have been previously identified in Arthropod ectoparasites (such as ticks and unfed cat flea). Yet, the question regarding the possible role of these arthropods as SARS-CoV-2 passive/biological transmission vectors is still poorly explored. In this study, we performed in silico structural and binding energy calculations to assess the risks associated with possible ectoparasite transmission. We found sufficient similarity between ectoparasite ACE and human ACE2 protein sequences to build good quality 3D-models of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike:ACE complex to assess the impacts of ectoparasite mutations on complex stability. For several species (e.g., water flea, deer tick, body louse), our analyses showed no significant destabilisation of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike:ACE complex, suggesting these species would bind the viral Spike protein. Our structural analyses also provide structural rationale for interactions between the viral Spike and the ectoparasite ACE proteins. Although we do not have experimental evidence of infection in these ectoparasites, the predicted stability of the complex suggests this is possible, raising concerns of a possible role in passive transmission of the virus to their human hosts. (my emphasis)

[thepossum]

Looks as if I've missed some serious action. Sadly life and business demands get in the way of entertainment sometimes.

 

It has to be said that anyone who thinks that science isn't used/abused politically is totally naive

 

It's a long time since I've been to China (30+ years), similar track to Richard it seems,but I also remember beautiful clear skies, terrible pollution and I only saw a tiny bit of a hugely diverse and remarkably variably ruled place for a totalitarian Beijing centric communist regime

 

I have to agree with the sentiments of Pilowsky regarding all the people here going on about how clean and green they are by exporting their footprint to China and elsewhere

 

PS I don't care who Tucker Carlson is but....

 

PPS it's been amusing/sad/scary seeing backflips from various media after Dr Fauci's revelations. Let's say I'm reading 1984 again soon. My concerns about media (and sadly other supposedly apolitical parties) over recent years, and political flip flops will not easily be removed, if ever

 

PPPS as for correlation you would hope for better understanding of statistical concepts in Bridge circles, but maybe not

[Gilithin]

Perhaps the problem lies in the use of the word "correlation".

On a Bridge forum - full of people with a maths background - it has a very specific meaning.

 

In the social sciences, the meaning could be somewhat looser.

cherdano's main point seems to be that it does not have any meaning whatsoever unless you actually define what a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing" actually means. And the statement is therefore nonsense regardless of whether you are talking mathematically, scientifically, social scientifically, or even for social discourse. Perhaps you as a biologist would like to share your mathematical insights on his question regarding how to measure a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing".

 

Oh yes, and we are still waiting for your evidence for pollution levels in China. Making a statement and moving on when challenged without backing it up is pretty much par for the course these days in debates; but bridge players are supposed to be educated so let's try to hold ourselves to some sort of standard.

[pilowsky]

cherdano's main point seems to be that it does not have any meaning whatsoever unless you actually define what a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing" actually means. And the statement is therefore nonsense regardless of whether you are talking mathematically, scientifically, social scientifically, or even for social discourse. Perhaps you as a biologist would like to share your mathematical insights on his question regarding how to measure a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing".

 

Oh yes, and we are still waiting for your evidence for pollution levels in China. Making a statement and moving on when challenged without backing it up is pretty much par for the course these days in debates; but bridge players are supposed to be educated so let's try to hold ourselves to some sort of standard.

 

Here is the data from Statista on countries with high levels of pollution. China is nowhere near the top but this is not the point.

Why you would be interested in my mathematical insights into "a traditional culture of distancing" makes no sense at all.

Cherdano stated that he was 100% wrong - I don't agree with the concept that something/someone can be 100% anything. It lacks subtlety.

 

Perhaps you are looking for some kind of mathematical equivalent of Godel's proof of the existence of God.

 

You and others are missing the main point about pollution in China.

The USA and most other developed countries export their pollution (and human rights abuses) to poorer countries by paying abysmally low prices for the things they produce and then turn around and complain they have a poor human rights record (hilarious considering the human rights record of many developed nations). Survivors of the Holocaust, the genocides in North and South America, the Atlantic slave trade and the genocide of Australia's first people live and breathe amongst us.

The complaints about human rights abuses and pollution by the same people that benefit from the clothes on their backs and the laptops that they use to rant on this forum is a little hypocritical.

Here is a report from CNN today documenting this: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/05/26/uyghur-congressional-report-jake-tapper-dnt-lead-vpx.cnn

The question is not who makes the most pollution? The question is cui bono?

 

This morning I heard that VP Harris has told Guatemalan refugees not to come to the USA.

The USA buys more than $4 billion worth of goods from the people in Guatemala but the people in Guatemala that produce it get paid a pittance for it, they have no decent health care and life there is very unpleasant.

Still, so long as Harris gets her coffee in the morning that's melis by you?

 

Clearly, your education is different to mine.

[barmar]

You and others are missing the main point about pollution in China.

The USA and most other developed countries export their pollution (and human rights abuses) to poorer countries by paying abysmally low prices for the things they produce and then turn around and complain they have a poor human rights record (hilarious considering the human rights record of many developed nations).

That's one way to look at it. Another way is that countries like China operate sweatshops and pay their workers low wages so they can undercut the costs in more progressive countries.

 

We don't force them to offer such low prices, but we're not going to pass up the bargains.

 

But you're right about the hypocracy. We get used to these low prices, but then complain about their poor working conditions.

[Winstonm]

That's one way to look at it. Another way is that countries like China operate sweatshops and pay their workers low wages so they can undercut the costs in more progressive countries.

 

We don't force them to offer such low prices, but we're not going to pass up the bargains.

 

But you're right about the hypocracy. We get used to these low prices, but then complain about their poor working conditions.

Seems there is a third way to look at this situation: by offering low-skill, low-wage production to impoverished nations we help increase their employment while benefitting from the reduced prices. High-skill, high-pay production jobs are not outsourced. This is the big lie of the populist - that outsourcing is the scourge of our labor markets.

[johnu]

Seems there is a third way to look at this situation: by offering low-skill, low-wage production to impoverished nations we help increase their employment while benefitting from the reduced prices. High-skill, high-pay production jobs are not outsourced. This is the big lie of the populist - that outsourcing is the scourge of our labor markets.

 

The question is what is a low-skill job??? Textile/clothing jobs? From what I have seen, sewing is a highly skilled job, yet is a very low-wage job in 3rd world countries. Working in electronics or chip making? Again, high skilled in my opinion, but low wage in 3rd world countries compared to the industrial countries.

 

What I see is high-skill, low-wage jobs being performed in 3rd world countries, and killing competing industries in the industrial countries. The result is that countries like the US end up with low-skill service jobs which are usually the lowest paying types of jobs. I'm not a big protectionist, but I understand the argument for targeted tariffs to even the playing field. I'm willing to pay a slightly higher amount if it means that workers can make a living wage.

[Winstonm]

The question is what is a low-skill job??? Textile/clothing jobs? From what I have seen, sewing is a highly skilled job, yet is a very low-wage job in 3rd world countries. Working in electronics or chip making? Again, high skilled in my opinion, but low wage in 3rd world countries compared to the industrial countries.

 

What I see is high-skill, low-wage jobs being performed in 3rd world countries, and killing competing industries in the industrial countries. The result is that countries like the US end up with low-skill service jobs which are usually the lowest paying types of jobs. I'm not a big protectionist, but I understand the argument for targeted tariffs to even the playing field. I'm willing to pay a slightly higher amount if it means that workers can make a living wage.

Me too. My point is that these are not simple binary questions that simplistic solutions can answer.

[pilowsky]

To make matters worse, we can hypothesise that the outsourcing of polluting manufacturing from Western countries to developing nations such as China, India, Indonesia, South and Central America etc. not only causes an increase in atmospheric pollution but also leads to deforestation.

The consequence of which is that animals like civets pivot from the forest to the city.

The pivoting civets bring with them a reservoir of viruses that can then be transmitted from animal to human.

Now, Louis Gohmert (R-Texas) is suggesting that BLM and the US forestry service ought to change the moon's orbit in order to reduce climate change.

Edit: Gohmert discussing the moon:

[johnu]

Now, Louis Gohmert (R-Texas) is suggesting that BLM and the US forestry service ought to change the moon's orbit in order to reduce climate change.

 

Hey now! Louie Gohmert is one of the most stable genius Republicans in Congress if you look at the competence and intelligence curve. Unfortunately, instead of flattening the Covid curve, Republicans pancaked, flattened, stomped on their own competence and intelligence curve so that any Republican with a pulse is at the top of the curve.

 

I am still hoping Republicans get their act together so they can put together a united front to let the red counties secede from the USA, again.

[Winstonm]

Hey now! Louie Gohmert is one of the most stable genius Republicans in Congress if you look at the competence and intelligence curve. Unfortunately, instead of flattening the Covid curve, Republicans pancaked, flattened, stomped on their own competence and intelligence curve so that any Republican with a pulse is at the top of the curve.

 

I am still hoping Republicans get their act together so they can put together a united front to let the red counties secede from the USA, again.

 

I'm coming around on your idea about secession - and after the next civil war there will be no reconstruction - only hangings for treason.

[Chas_P]

I'm coming around on your idea about secession - and after the next civil war there will be no reconstruction - only hangings for treason.

As Einstein said, "The only difference between genius and idiocy is that genius has limits." Just sayin'.............

[pilowsky]

The Boy scouts in America are simultaneously putting an end to racism and coronavirus.

Some in Florida think it's all political.

Fans of the Brooksville Raid reenactment said they were disappointed that the 2021 event was being canceled, but understood the need for coronavirus safety precautions, and said that they hoped it would return in 2022. Some reenactment fans, however, questioned whether the event was actually being canceled due to the racial unrest throughout the country since George Floyd's death in the middle of May.

 

'Let's be honest, this is not about corona,' one Facebook user wrote.

 

'Is this also due to fear of it being a racist event? I am truly saddened at the cancel culture that's now encroached to our county!!' another Facebook user wrote.

 

'The virus is just an excuse, to stop them, tell the truth, it's all about the racism tensions,' a Facebook user wrote.

 

'This is all political. While you're at it the mural in Brooksville should be taken down too. Bunch of weak people here,' wrote another Facebook user.

 

The Brooksville Raid organizers responded to the last poster, stating that they did not cancel the event, reiterating that the Boy Scout council opted not to renew the contract and that 'We were currently planning for 2021 when this happened.'

 

Although raid reenactment fans said that racial unrest and threats of violence against reenactments have been a problem in the last few years, they do believe that the event's stated 'profitability' claim is the actual reason behind the 2021 cancellation.

 

In the past, the raid had been viewed as a tourism booster, as well as a reasonably-priced family-oriented event – admission was $10 per adult and $5 for under 12s and free for children under 5. More than a thousand visitors traveling from across the state to attend it.

[shyams]

Why does the BBC report the Govt. spin as if it were fact? The new article by Nick Triggle (link) is merely parroting the party line without questioning a single statistic or hypothesis.

 

For example,

 

1. The much-touted herd immunity rate was somewhere around 65% of the population. England has already vaccinated 80% of all adults (which, probably is ~65% of the population). This number will rise by a further 2%-4% by June 21st. In effect, the herd immunity levels may have been reached -- so why is BBC not challenging the UK Govt on this point.

 

2. The original objective of the lockdown was "Protect the NHS". There is absolutely no indication that the infections are resulting in actual increase in ICU patients or in deaths or in any way stressing the NHS. If the very foundation of the lockdown no longer exists, why can't the BBC challenge the UK Govt about their rationale for deferring the normalcy date?

 

The BBC may not be in a position to assess if the deferral is merited or not. However, I find it really difficult to believe that the BBC has (over the past two weeks) only pushed the Govt's assessment of how a delay is important -- without giving any consideration to counter facts or counter arguments or robust challenges.

 

Annoying!

[johnu]

I'm coming around on your idea about secession - and after the next civil war there will be no reconstruction - only hangings for treason.

 

There is absolutely no need for a civil war. Once people come to their senses and acknowledge that letting the confederate states back into the union was a terrible mistake, it will be easy to pass a constitutional amendment allowing red counties to secede and join the New Confederacy.

 

After a secession amendment is passed, there would be a county by county vote on whether to secede. Counties voting to secede by 50.000+% would be free to create whatever kind of national government they want, and negotiate with Blue USA over trade and national security issues.

 

After the formation of the New Confederacy, counties could switch countries by holding an election and if 55% want to switch, they can after a 20 year probation period. Counties that elected people like Gohmert, Gaetz, Taylor Green, Jordan, Cruz, Cotton, Bachmann, McConnell, etc would need 60% to switch and have a 50 year probation.

[Winstonm]

There is absolutely no need for a civil war. Once people come to their senses and acknowledge that letting the confederate states back into the union was a terrible mistake, it will be easy to pass a constitutional amendment allowing red counties to secede and join the New Confederacy.

 

After a secession amendment is passed, there would be a county by county vote on whether to secede. Counties voting to secede by 50.000+% would be free to create whatever kind of national government they want, and negotiate with Blue USA over trade and national security issues.

 

After the formation of the New Confederacy, counties could switch countries by holding an election and if 55% want to switch, they can after a 20 year probation period. Counties that elected people like Gohmert, Gaetz, Taylor Green, Jordan, Cruz, Cotton, Bachmann, McConnell, etc would need 60% to switch and have a 50 year probation.

And after the new confederacy is established we invade and pass new versions of Jim Crow laws that make rebels second class citizens without voting rights .

[cherdano]

Why does the BBC report the Govt. spin as if it were fact? The new article by Nick Triggle (link) is merely parroting the party line without questioning a single statistic or hypothesis.

 

For example,

 

1. The much-touted herd immunity rate was somewhere around 65% of the population. England has already vaccinated 80% of all adults (which, probably is ~65% of the population). This number will rise by a further 2%-4% by June 21st. In effect, the herd immunity levels may have been reached -- so why is BBC not challenging the UK Govt on this point.

 

2. The original objective of the lockdown was "Protect the NHS". There is absolutely no indication that the infections are resulting in actual increase in ICU patients or in deaths or in any way stressing the NHS. If the very foundation of the lockdown no longer exists, why can't the BBC challenge the UK Govt about their rationale for deferring the normalcy date?

 

The BBC may not be in a position to assess if the deferral is merited or not. However, I find it really difficult to believe that the BBC has (over the past two weeks) only pushed the Govt's assessment of how a delay is important -- without giving any consideration to counter facts or counter arguments or robust challenges.

 

Annoying!

I am no fan of Nick Triggle, as is documented elsewhere in this thread. But this article seems fine.

 

0. The information given is not based on the government's "party line", but on the modelling done by independent scientists part of SAGE. I think this distinction is important. It's also roughly in line with what others have predicted based on simple extrapolations or more sophisticated models.

For the near future, it's really simple: cases are now growing fast, with a doubling time of 10-14 days. Hospitalizations are still following that growth - roughly, they are 4-5% of cases 10 days before.

 

Now to respond to your specific points:

1. Only 57% of adults have had both shots, one dose is less effective against delta, and the higher transmissibilty delta unfortunately raises the herd immunity threshold. Also, vaccinating by age means you effectively need a higher threshold, as most 20 year olds are more likely to hang out with other 20 year olds than with 70 year olds.

 

2. As I said, cases are rising fast, hospitalizations are starting to follow. The NHS could "cope" with a similar wave as in January, but it would mean it had to stop doing a lot of other things again. Not sure we really want to increase the NHS backlog.

 

Today's decision was really inevitable.