Coronavirus

[barmar]

Just about anytime someone says "Everybody knows that" I think the speaker needs to get out more and look around.

Doesn't everyone know that?

[johnu]

More about that whackjob school in Florida (where else?) that wants to ban teachers who got Covid vaccinations.

 

Florida GOP Kills Measure To Protect Vaccinated Workers From Retaliation

 

Pizzo introduced his measure following news that the Centner Academy elementary school in Miami had issued an edict that vaccinated teachers or staff would be banned from having any contact with students. Vaccinated employees risked losing their jobs, warned school founder Leila Centner. Centner and her husband have made significant contributions to the Republican Party.

 

Isn't it redundant to say that Centner is a Manchurian President Republican??? What other party affiliation makes any sense?

 

According to a student, a Centner Academy science teacher told a class that they shouldn’t hug their vaccinated parents for more than 5 seconds because it was too dangerous, CBS Channel 3 Miami reported. (Check out the video up top.)

 

Apparently the coronovirus has irreparably damaged the genes of some of the Republican anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers.

[kenberg]

getting back to a saner worldview:

https://www.pbs.org/...ng-the-hesitant

 

Dr. Keiser is having some success, better than the national average the report ays. Here is an excerpt:

 

 

And I think, in retrospect, what we're going to say is that the first 50 percent were easy, and I think the next 25 percent are — and that's that group of people that are saying they're not sure — is going to be a lot harder.

 

His message appears to be that it's all going well with about half the population. With another quarter, he hopes for the best. For the remaining quarter, he is a good deal less hopeful. I hate to say it, but this appears to be about as much as it is realistic to hope for.

 

For the watch and waits, I have a simple question: How long?

I'm 82. Ten years ago I took no meds. Now I take meds. There is reason to be cautious, some docs never saw a pill that they didn't like. But still, I take my meds. Caution mixed with reality. So watch and wait, ok, but watch, wait, and then, after a bit of watching, and a bit of waiting, take the damn meds. Now is the time to reach that third stage.

[Winstonm]

getting back to a saner worldview:

https://www.pbs.org/...ng-the-hesitant

 

Dr. Kaiser is having some success, better than the national average the report ays. Here is an excerpt:

 

 

 

 

His message appears to be that it's all going well with about half the population. With another quarter, he hopes for the best. For the remaining quarter, he is a good deal less hopeful. I hate to say it, but this appears to be about as much as it is realistic to hope for.

 

For the watch and waits, I have a simple question: How long?

I'm 82. Ten years ago I took no meds. Now I take meds. There is reason to be cautious, some docs never saw a pill that they didn't like. But still, I take my meds. Caution mixed with reality. So watch and wait, ok, but watch, wait, and then, after a bit of watching, and a bit of waiting, take the damn meds. Now is the time to reach that third stage.

 

On a more positive take I read (I think of NPR) that there are estimates that about 60% of the population has either been vaccinated or exposed to the virus so we are much closer to herd immunity than thought - in fact the article stated we were close to a tipping point.

Found it: https://www.npr.org/...rus-experts-say

 

 

 

"I think we've hit a tipping point," says Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "We've really turned a corner on this latest wave. And I think that the worst days of the pandemic really are now behind us."

 

Jha and others base that conclusion on several factors. First of all, a significant proportion of the U.S. population — an estimated 34% — already has some immunity to the virus from having been exposed to the virus.

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2021 by Winstonm

[kenberg]

Cautious optimism, both the optimism and the caution, seem reasonable.

We are seeing people, some, carefully.

[pilowsky]

There are a lot of people out there who, for one reason or another, are not vaccinated against all sorts of things https://ourworldinda...nation-coverage

Although the USA has reached >90% for most things (97% for polio).

Regarding coronavirus, it seems that the USA is doing really well in many places. Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58% https://ourworldinda...100?time=latest.

Combined, the USA is still just short of 50% (as of today), but the situation globally is dire. Only 7.57% of the world population has received at least one dose as of today. https://ourworldinda...SA~URY~OWID_WRL.

The problem is made worse because the Trump organisation, in collusion with other Western "democracies", decided that it would be a good idea to NOT make the vaccine 'open-source' so that rich companies could get richer.

The Western way. Trickle-down economics doesn't work with infectious diseases.

As JK Galbraith once remarked when asked to comment on a statement that the "level of political killings in El Salvador was at an acceptable level", - he replied:

"My question is: What is an acceptable level of political killings?"

For those of you that haven't heard JKG speak, here's a great sample http://bit.ly/JKGspeak. He talks a lot about the relationship between economics and science.

[hrothgar]

My impression is that IP issues around the various vaccines is very much a red herring. The various companies could release the IP tomorrow and this still wouldn't lead to any additional shots going into people's arms.

 

The real issue here is that manufacturing the most effective versions of these vaccines requires highly specialized intermediate goods ranging from the lipids nanoparticles that are used to encapsulate the mRNA vaccines to the various plastic bags that the bio-reactors use when churning out the mRNA. Plus, you have enormous issues involving transport and refrigeration.

 

The J&J, Astrazeneca, and Sputnik vaccines are probably a lot easier to manufacture, but even here there are real issues with scaling production. (and here, once again I don't think that IP is the real gating issue)

 

The sheer number of people in locations like India and Brazil that need to be treated is mind boggling. Absent a time machine and investing heavily in productive capabilities 12 months back, I'm not sure what can be done to avoid catastrophe.

 

I'm terrified of the new variants breaking out in a big was in an area like, say Nigeria with even worse public health infrastructure than India.

[johnu]

Although the USA has reached >90% for most things (97% for polio).

Regarding coronavirus, it seems that the USA is doing really well in many places. Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58% https://ourworldinda...100?time=latest.

 

Don't be fooled, Florida is still acknowledged as a national joke when it comes to Covid leadership. Yes, the US is doing well compared to the rest of the world. Florida brings up the rear for the US as it ranks 40th in Covid vaccination rates in the USA. I blame this on Florida not having enough ultra rich private retirement communities where a substantial number of the residents contribute heavily to the Florida Repugs.

[hrothgar]

Don't be fooled, Florida is still acknowledged as a national joke when it comes to Covid leadership. Yes, the US is doing well compared to the rest of the world. Florida brings up the rear for the US as it ranks 40th in Covid vaccination rates in the USA. I blame this on Florida not having enough ultra rich private retirement communities where a substantial number of the residents contribute heavily to the Florida Repugs.

 

Note: The cart that Pilowsky is citing is showing the number of doses per 100 people.

So, if one person gets a full treatment of Pfizer, they get double counted.

 

As of yesterday, 36% of the folks in Florida were fully vaccinated

56% percent have had at least one dose

[pilowsky]

The term "fully vaccinated" just refers to whether or not an individual has been given the number of doses as set out in the schedule.

I think that you will find that one dose confers very substantial protection.

The first dose of any immunogen (the thing that provokes an immune response) effectively immunises about 70-90% of the population. (look at the data on Hepatitis vaccination).

 

Subsequent doses improve the immunity to 90-99%.

 

If 56% of the population have had 1 dose then I would expect that about 50% of the population have a lot of protection.

 

 

I have produced dozens of antibodies using various methods over the years.

There are many considerations.

Including host, dose, carrier, the immunogen, timing of vaccination and many other more technical factors.

[pilowsky]

My impression is that IP issues around the various vaccines is very much a red herring. The various companies could release the IP tomorrow and this still wouldn't lead to any additional shots going into people's arms.

 

The real issue here is that manufacturing the most effective versions of these vaccines requires highly specialized intermediate goods ranging from the lipids nanoparticles that are used to encapsulate the mRNA vaccines to the various plastic bags that the bio-reactors use when churning out the mRNA. Plus, you have enormous issues involving transport and refrigeration.

 

The J&J, Astrazeneca, and Sputnik vaccines are probably a lot easier to manufacture, but even here there are real issues with scaling production. (and here, once again I don't think that IP is the real gating issue)

 

The sheer number of people in locations like India and Brazil that need to be treated is mind boggling. Absent a time machine and investing heavily in productive capabilities 12 months back, I'm not sure what can be done to avoid catastrophe.

 

I'm terrified of the new variants breaking out in a big was in an area like, say Nigeria with even worse public health infrastructure than India.

 

This impression does not reflect the realpolitik of vaccine production.

The problem is nothing to do with "releasing the IP tomorrow" - which is itself a red herring.

 

The problem is that the technology was not open-source from the beginning.

It was always obvious that COVID19 was a global emergency that required global action.

What did the USA and others do? they restricted the supply chain (of knowledge and production) from the start.

Vaccine nationalism is as big a problem as vaccine hesitancy - possibly bigger.

 

 

 

[hrothgar]

The term "fully vaccinated" just refers to whether or not an individual has been given the number of doses as set out in the schedule.

I think that you will find that one dose confers very substantial protection.

 

No one is contesting that.

 

The point that I was making is that the chart that you displayed is not particularly useful in understand what percentage of the population has been vaccinated.

[hrothgar]

This impression does not reflect the realpolitik of vaccine production.

The problem is nothing to do with "releasing the IP tomorrow" - which is itself a red herring.

 

The problem is that the technology was not open-source from the beginning.

It was always obvious that COVID19 was a global emergency that required global action.

What did the USA and others do? they restricted the supply chain (of knowledge and production) from the start.

Vaccine nationalism is as big a problem as vaccine hesitancy - possibly bigger.

 

Yeap...

 

Things were / are far from perfect.

Hopefully folks will learn the right lessons.

 

Please note: I strenuously disagree with (almost all) of the policies that the Trump administration put in place. And this certainly holds true for stuff around liability indemnification for vaccines. At the same time, this was all fairly predictable. I don't think that the "issue" is that the US or the Brits or whomever are hoarding vaccines or raw materials or whatever; rather the issue was the failure to invest in necessary infrastructure long long ago...

[pilowsky]

No one is contesting that.

 

The point that I was making is that the chart that you displayed is not particularly useful in understand what percentage of the population has been vaccinated.

 

And the point that I am making is that there is a difference between an individual being immune, an individual being immune enough not to get really sick and an individual being given two doses of a substance 3 weeks apart.

 

To understand the data, you need to have considerable knowledge about medicine, vaccines, immunology and more.

 

Trump was using the same graphic source in his infamous interview with Johnathon Swan.

I was surprised at the time that the President of the United States had to rely on graphs from an open-source internet site instead of the CDC, NSA and CIA.

I probably shouldn't have been.

 

You are muddying the herrings in the water.

I don't know why.

[hrothgar]

You are muddying the herrings in the water.

I don't know why.

 

I am simply pointing out that the numbers that you cited are easily misinterpreted.

 

I think that most people would interpret "Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58%" as meaning that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot.

[pilowsky]

I am simply pointing out that the numbers that you cited are easily misinterpreted.

 

I think that most people would interpret "Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58%" as meaning that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot.

 

If things weren't "easily misinterpreted" we wouldn't be in the pickle we're in now.

Every time I look up COVID anywhere, about 10% percent of the stuff is a conspiracy theory.

Even in the scientific literature, there are a lot of "false narratives" as the NSA likes to call lies. Thanks for that one Fiona Hill.

 

 

If 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot then even if they had all only received one dose (obviously not true - even Trump has had a full course) then the protection afforded to all of the 70+% is (likely) => 80% of the 70% In addition to a lot of other immune people.

As it happens this is an undercount anyway since many of the unvaccinated covidiots who are vaccine refuseniks may have had the disease and be immune - or not be susceptible to getting it anyway.

 

 

What we don't know is how many of these undocumented "immunizens" are "Typhoid Mary's" - capable of carrying and transmitting the disease without being aware that they have it.

Estimates of sub-clinical infection (got it but don't know it) are 80-90% of the infected population.

 

Biology is a tricky business.

So is restraint, but it's getting a pretty heavy workout today.

[hrothgar]

 

If 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot then even if they had all only received one dose (obviously not true - even Trump has had a full course) then the protection afforded to all of the 70+% is (likely) => 80% of the 70% In addition to a lot of other immune people.

As it happens this is an undercount anyway since many of the unvaccinated covidiots who are vaccine refuseniks may have had the disease and be immune - or not be susceptible to getting it anyway.

 

 

Once again,

 

the chart that you provided does not show that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot

[Gilithin]

Once again,

 

the chart that you provided does not show that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot

Could I humbly suggest someone post:

 

a. % who have had 2 doses;

b. % who have had 1 dose of a single dose vaccine;

c. % who have had only 1 dose of a 2 dose vaccine;

d. % who have not received any dose; and

e. (optional) % who have not received any dose but are confirmed to have had covid in the last 3 months.

 

It should be simple from there for everyone to understand the maths involved.

[kenberg]

I have heard various numbers and they are hard to reconcile. Often numbers do not mean what they appear to mean.

 

It seems more important to know what we can expect by, say, the end of June. Or the end of July. And to know what we should be doing to make those numbers as large as possible. I and others like me were fully ready to get the shot as soon as it was offered. No line crashing, but ready and willing. Others are not, for various reasons. We should be able to solve problems such as distant locations and being busy with kids and work. I am not minimizing these problems, it will take effort, but it will be worth the effort. Problems with refusals will be tougher. Some minds can be changed, some can't.

 

If the figures given for today don't match the reality of today, but are a good match for the reality of a week from today, I can live with that. But, as the Dr. Keiser I quoted above was saying, we are getting into a tougher area. We have to reach those who are open to being reached. And for that matter, we have to cope with those who simply say no. As I told one anti-masker, you are allowed to commit suicide, you are not allowed to take others with you. I cannot report that he said "Oh, sure, I see. Ok".

 

I hope we can do this. We won't get everyone.

[hrothgar]

Could I humbly suggest someone post:

 

a. % who have had 2 doses;

b. % who have had 1 dose of a single dose vaccine;

c. % who have had only 1 dose of a 2 dose vaccine;

d. % who have not received any dose; and

e. (optional) % who have not received any dose but are confirmed to have had covid in the last 3 months.

 

It should be simple from there for everyone to understand the maths involved.

 

Just google covid vaccination rates by state

[hrothgar]

I have heard various numbers and they are hard to reconcile. Often numbers do not mean what they appear to mean.

 

Did you look at the chart that Pilowsky referenced?

 

Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people

That is where he is drawing his 70.58% number from

 

However, he is describing this is

 

"70.58% of the population has received at least one shot"

 

In one case the numerator is "shots given" in the other it is "people inoculated"

 

If each and every person who received a shot only received one shot, the two numbers would match. However an extremely large number of people in Florida have received two shots, in which case the two values start to skew from one another.

[pilowsky]

Leave him alone Ken, he's on a roll.

Yes, 70.58% of doses doesn't mean 70.58% have had 2 shots.

That's not what I said and it isn't what the data shows and it isn't the main point of the post.

But congrats on your stats Richard.

[kenberg]

I went to

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-population-vaccinated-march-15.html

 

We see:

As of 6 a.m. EDT May 1, a total of 103,422,555 Americans had been fully vaccinated, or 31.2 percent of the country's population, according to the CDC's data.

 

 

 

Of course, that percentage is of all Americans, and so includes children that, as of now, are not being vaccinated. And I suppose we might ask What is an American?

 

And, very important, we could know of how many are immune because they have already had it. I have not looked that up but I imagine I could.

 

 

But for my purposes, meaning having a fair grasp of where we are in our vaccination efforts, the numbers are useful enough. We can watch how they grow to get a feeling for developing problems.

Another number could be how many have received one dose of a two dose vaccnie and are expected to be getting the second dose. These people are not a problem, they are well into the pipeline and soon will be fully vaccinated.

 

My question is: Does it now look like we are on track to beat this? It seems the news is fairly encouraging but we still have quite a bit to go and things can go wrong.

 

in the last month or so the change has been that back a month ago many people were hoping to get a shot but were uncertain when they would or how to go about it. Now my wife's daughter has scheduled her 16 year old twins for a shot at the local Giant (a supermarket). Now I encounter or hear about people who are still waiting, but they are waitng to decide rather than waiting and worrying about when they might maybe get the vaccine. Those that want it might not get it tomorrow but they are confident that they will get it soon.

 

I repeat: My question is "Is this working?". And then "What do we need to do to reach those that for one reason or another are hard to reach?" I'll watch the site I just listed, or maybe look around for more later.

 

So far so good, or at least so far more or less good, but don't break out the Champagne.

 

Just as an aside, I would like to retire the word "troll" from online discussions. My daughter's favorite (well, one of her favorites, she would happily listen to as many as I would read) bedtime story was The Three Billy Goats Gruff. Who's that tromping over my bridge? A good place for trolls, let's leave them be.

[PassedOut]

Just as an aside, I would like to retire the word "troll" from online discussions.

Or, we could discuss fishing techniques.

[kenberg]

Or, we could discuss fishing techniques.

 

Yes, I grew up in Minnesota and learned how to handle a boat for trolling when I was maybe 8 or so.