pilowsky Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 I used to live around the corner from the Coopers brewery. "cloudy but fine". It is close to the vineyard where Penfold grew the grapes for Grange Hermitage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penfolds_Grange. Possibly something even Mikeh and I would agree with me when I say is fine wine. The aroma of the brewery wafted across our house on the right day in the foothills of Adelaide. I even went to medical school with one of the Cooper children. Of course, the English stuff everything up by serving it warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Permit me to introduce you to the concept of the "social contract". Imagine for a moment that you and your partner - who live on your own - and are asymptomatic carriers of a deadly disease that is highly contagious. Are you with me so far? Go to the pub...At the pub, you meet some people... Are you following me now?These people then go to their homes after touching the doorknob that you touched before the cleaner could clean it.Oh dear, you have accidentally *****ed up the entire community.Never mind. You had an enjoyable ale. Was it a cold Fosters? No I'm not with you, asymptomayic carriers and highly contagious are not totally compatible in this case. All the stuff I've seen suggests you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms. You don't "meet people" without being socially distanced. The doors have been left open for you to go in so you don't touch the doorknob, and you sanitise your hands before touching the one to the toilet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 No I'm not with you, asymptomayic carriers and highly contagious are not totally compatible in this case. All the stuff I've seen suggests you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms. Are you willfully trying to be ignorant on this topic or are you just plain stupid? https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Are you willfully trying to be ignorant on this topic or are you just plain stupid? https://wwwnc.cdc.go...20-1595_article For 25 points: Garlic is to the undead as facts are to the ____ dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Are you willfully trying to be ignorant on this topic or are you just plain stupid? https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article No I believe what is said every damn day on the media here. Yes you can transmit it while asymptomatic, I didn't say you couldn't, but you're at least an order of magnitude less likely to do so than if you have symptoms, particularly if you don't do anything stupid like shout near people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 No I believe what is said every damn day on the media here. Yes you can transmit it while asymptomatic, I didn't say you couldn't, but you're at least an order of magnitude less likely to do so than if you have symptoms, particularly if you don't do anything stupid like shout near people. Thank you for clarifying. "Stupid" it is... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilowsky Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Have you ever noticed that there is no correlation at all between competence in one area and competence in another? Someone who is fantastic in one field may not be the best bridge player. Interestingly, there is also no relationship between competence and confidence. Although as a rule, men do seem to have more confidence than women - Sarah Cooper said that quite recently. She was referring to Donald J Trump on the topic of cognition and COVID19 In Trump, I think, we have a man who is nearly 100% confidence and 0% competence. Isn't that something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Thank you for clarifying. "Stupid" it is... Do I really have to block you for beaing a rude ass, our government has also said this as has EVERY expert I've heard comment on this. You are MANY times more likely to transmit the virus while symptomatic. "Four individual studies from Brunei, Guangzhou China, Taiwan China and the Republic of Korea found that between 0% and 2.2% of people with asymptomatic infection infected anyone else, compared to 0.8%-15.4% of people with symptoms" source https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/transmission-of-sars-cov-2-implications-for-infection-prevention-precautions And bear in mind people who are symptomatic will stay away from others so the chance of them infecting somebody if they did what the presymptomatic or asymptomatic cases did is higher than those figures suggest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 our government has also said this as has EVERY expert I've heard comment on this. Then perhaps you need to crawl out of whatever little bubble you live in... At least on this side of the pond, doctors have been talking about asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread for months. And, yes, it's quite likely that people who are symptomatic are more contagious, but that's not the issue.The issue is whether people who are asymptomatic/pre-sympotomatic pose a significant risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilowsky Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Unfortunately Mr Cyberyeti, symptomatic people do not stay away. Some of them believe that God will protect them and others. Some of them believe that not being allowed to go out infringes their 'right' to free speech and free assembly. I know that for a grown-up this is difficult to grasp. I could hardly believe it until, as a Doctor, I visited some of their homes. But it is true. Some people just don't care about you, me, or even Richard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Then perhaps you need to crawl out of whatever little bubble you live in... At least on this side of the pond, doctors have been talking about asymptomatic spread for months. And, yes, it's quite likely that people who are symptomatic are more contagious, but that's not the issue.The issue is whether people who are asymptomatic pose a significant risk. I see you've ignored the WHO article I linked because it doesn't back your position. I didn't say coronavirus wasn't infectious in the asymptomatic, I said it wasn't HIGHLY infectious in them. Unfortunately Mr Cyberyeti, symptomatic people do not stay away. Some of them believe that God will protect them and others. Some of them believe that not being allowed to go out infringes their 'right' to free speech and free assembly. I know that for a grown-up this is difficult to grasp. I could hardly believe it until, as a Doctor, I visited some of their homes. But it is true. Some people just don't care about you, me, or even Richard.hrothgar I'm fortunate perhaps to live in a relatively sensible city where there is none of this that I've come across even reported. It's much worse in bits of the US and I suspect a few very particular areas of England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 I see you've ignored the WHO article I linked because it doesn't back your position. You mean the report with the big section titled SARS-CoV-2 infected persons without symptoms can also infect others I didn't say coronavirus wasn't infectious in the asymptomatic, I said it wasn't HIGHLY infectious in them. No. Your specific quote was All the stuff I've seen suggests you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms. What you are doing now is lying about your original claims. The fancy word for what you are doing is a motte-and-bailey argument https://heterodoxacademy.org/the-motte-and-the-bailey-a-rhetorical-strategy-to-know/ But, it really boils down to you're lying about your original claim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilowsky Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 I'm fortunate perhaps to live in a relatively sensible city where there is none of this that I've come across even reported. It's much worse in bits of the US and I suspect a few very particular areas of England. So, that would be the city that does not have a football team. Which one is that? I'm packing my bags now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 So, that would be the city that does not have a football team. Which one is that? I'm packing my bags now. We have a football team, we've just been relegated from the premier league, even the football fans are relatively sensible, it's a family club (I live 300 yards from the ground and have had no trouble whatsoever). Of course there are no fans at games atm And sorry Hrothgar you're an idiot, you didnit read what you quoted. All the stuff I've seen suggests you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms. So yes I did say exactly what I claimed I said Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Do I really have to block you for beaing a rude ass, our government has also said this as has EVERY expert I've heard comment on this. You are MANY times more likely to transmit the virus while symptomatic. "Four individual studies from Brunei, Guangzhou China, Taiwan China and the Republic of Korea found that between 0% and 2.2% of people with asymptomatic infection infected anyone else, compared to 0.8%-15.4% of people with symptoms" source https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/transmission-of-sars-cov-2-implications-for-infection-prevention-precautionsSorry we have the same government, and our government said no such *****. Otherwise, the early strategy of "those with symptoms stay home" would have worked and we wouldn't have needed a lockdown.Most studies I have seen estimate that may 40-50% of transmissions happen before onset of symptoms, or from asymptomatic patients. Still believing in July 2020 that you are unlikely to transmit while you don't have symptoms is extremely misguided, and explains some of your earlier selfish ignorant excuses not to wear masks in shops. Just give it a rest instead of further digging the hole you are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 Either you have not been following current affairs, or you are under the influence of alcohol and your cognitive abilities are mildly impaired.The graph clearly shows that:As soon as restrictions are lifted, caseload increases.The incubation period is 2 weeks.Alcohol causes a dose-related disinhibition of all function.It's a bad idea.More people will die,What is hard to decide? Either you have not had the intellectual maturity to debate properly, or you are a troll who likes to interject ad hominem attacks just for kicks. That (probably informative) post of yours would not have suffered if the first line was skipped or replaced by a neutral observation.Just leave him - that pillowsky didn't get my sarcasm just means I targeted my audience properly :P However, his claim that the incubation period is 2 weeks is non-sense - it's most typically something like 5 days (but I've seen a range of 2-14 days stated). I agree that the turn in the graph is just a little bit too early to match perfectly - but not by much. If symptom set in 5 days after, and it takes 2-3 days to get a test result, you might expect cases to start going up 7-8 days after opening. But the blue line is a moving average for 7 days, meaning from 3 days prior to 3 days after. So you'd expect this line to start turning 4-5 days after opening. Which matches reasonably well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted July 25, 2020 Report Share Posted July 25, 2020 So yes I did say exactly what I claimed I said No shiite for brains, you did not. You read the article It's very careful to distinguish between pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic. Your original claim was "unless you have symptoms"You later claim was "I didn't say coronavirus wasn't infectious in the asymptomatic"In and of itself, thats a BIG change in you position. I'd also argue that "highly infectious" and "not that contagious" are very different claims Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chas_P Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 Thank you guys so much for the entertainment. This is more fun than watching a monkey trying to f$$k a football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 Thank you guys so much for the entertainment. This is more fun than watching a monkey trying to f$$k a football. Glad to help I guess masturbating to Birth of a Nation gets old after so many years.Or maybe you just can't get it up any more... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilowsky Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 I live to serve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepossum Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 One research study/report I would be very interested in is an analysis of the number of media reports, social media posts, discussions and even the number of additional Under-review academic research that has been written and/or reported based on pre-prints over the last 6 - 8 months. Personally, while I understand the importance of the review process within expert circles I feel it has made something of a mockery of academic research processes. I also think quantity vs quality metrics come into consideration too. When a fully reviewed Lancet paper seems to get equivalent media standing to some rather half-baked attempt that would never pass review I get concerned. This has been the first pandemic post the massive growth in social media and MSM, in addition it seems to soemthing of a wild west reduced quality academe. Its hard to sort the wheat from the chaff and in the middle of a global crisis that is concerning Quoting from Medrxiv "Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information" SInce I last checked the number of preprints it appears our poor health research reviewers (in the middle of a crisis doing other rather important stuff I imagine) are drowning and unable to flatten the publication curve And while I know the important aspect of peer-reviewed research within academia, surely during a global health crisis there are more important things to do and use research resources for than just expanding bibilographies. I understand how it happens of course. You have existing studies and datasets. A big topical issue comes along. Small tweak to the objectives and hypotheses and away you go. Forgive me, I'm just bitter and twsited. There was one skill I lacked to prevent me becoming a professor or some other senior academic, the ability to churn out papers :) oh and the interest and motivation to pursue an academic career Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilowsky Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 This not the first pandemic post social media.The metabolic syndrome is in pandemic proportions. I am pretty sure that it is the reason that Americans have such a high morbidity and mortality rate from COVID19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepossum Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 The first one where we have had global lockdown and unprecedented media Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilowsky Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 I wish we had a global lockdown.Then we would not be in the ***** that we are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepossum Posted July 26, 2020 Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 Well it's close to being global and brutal for many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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