Coronavirus

[akwoo]

Lately I've started thinking about what life was like before "modern medicine". In those days, when people got sick, they often died. Women frequently died during childbirth, and many children didn't make it to adulthood.

 

This was all just an accepted fact of life, people didn't go to extreme measures to try to avoid it. Families had lots of children so that they would be ensured that some would make it. They knew that many diseases were infectious, even though the mechanism (bacteria and virus spread) wasn't known, but they didn't practice "social distancing".

 

Probably the only reason there weren't enormous pandemics was that few people travelled outside their local areas.

 

Have we become so spoiled by modern medicine that we can't imagine a life like that? Are we going to be stuck wearing masks and staying 6 feet apart from each other because of this?

 

First of all, if you look at ancient history, you'll find that almost every Roman emperor has a plague named after them, and the longer serving ones have two or three. There were enormous pandemics. (Most of them probably were not the plague; they were different diseases, though we don't always know which one.)

 

Second, when you don't have much and your life is mostly miserable, death is in some ways quite welcome. In a less wealthy society, life is simply not considered nearly as valuable, and preventing death not worth resources on the same scale. Even the poorest countries today are wealthy compared to medieval Europe.

 

Third, older societies were generally much more profoundly unequal. If you are a serf and your lord demands that you keep providing him his food even at the risk of contracting the plague (while he isolates himself in the castle), you are lucky if you have the choice of running off into the woods, where you are almost certain to starve to death if you don't first get eaten by a bear. If you are a Roman work slave, you probably prefer the plague to being worked to death, and punishment for attempting to escape is being worked harder to death even faster.

 

I'm basically happy to be wearing masks and staying 6 feet apart forever. I know a few people who would rather accept the higher risk for themselves. I know of a lot more people who would rather have others accept a higher risk.

[awm]

Have we become so spoiled by modern medicine that we can't imagine a life like that? Are we going to be stuck wearing masks and staying 6 feet apart from each other because of this?

 

The way we think about children has shifted massively in the last 200 years or so. Most people can’t even imagine a world where around half of children died of disease by the age of 3. This has some unfortunate effects today like the anti vaccine movement (“people didn’t need these vaccines 200 years ago” being a common refrain). It’s just hard for modern families to imagine.

 

Work has changed a lot in 200 years too. Modern jobs often require some amount of travel and frequent close interactions with clients or coworkers in ways that running a small family farm (a common job 200+ years ago) doesn’t.

 

More directly related to Covid, often significant sacrifices are being asked of young/healthy people who face little direct risk but need to protect older/sicker people they come into contact with. Humankind has never been as good at empathy or community spirit as we’d like to think we are! One can definitely see cultural differences taking hold here though.

[Winstonm]

Eek, this is starting to look really bleak.

 

Lately I've started thinking about what life was like before "modern medicine". In those days, when people got sick, they often died. Women frequently died during childbirth, and many children didn't make it to adulthood.

 

This was all just an accepted fact of life, people didn't go to extreme measures to try to avoid it. Families had lots of children so that they would be ensured that some would make it. They knew that many diseases were infectious, even though the mechanism (bacteria and virus spread) wasn't known, but they didn't practice "social distancing".

 

Probably the only reason there weren't enormous pandemics was that few people travelled outside their local areas.

 

Have we become so spoiled by modern medicine that we can't imagine a life like that? Are we going to be stuck wearing masks and staying 6 feet apart from each other because of this?

 

FYP and the answer is yes. Spoiled, in this sense, to me means not being able to look past your own desires. It is a self-serving approach that is common to adolescence and childhood - when we all think we are our personal center of the universe. It requires real growth to understand that we are all part of a community and that what is best for the community is more important that an individual want.

[pilowsky]

The question of life before modern medicine is well-documented. Here is a post I made a little earlier and also put on Facebook. It includes a book/Masters thesis by a US academic concerning the influenza pandemic. The stories resonate through the decades.

I just discovered a Masters thesis by a Vanderbilt English student. "THE 1918 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC IN LITERATURE AND MEMORY" by Caroline Hovanec" It concerns literature written at the time of the influenza pandemics between 1918 and 1935. The thesis was written before this pandemic. It makes a fascinating read. I think it may have been published in the journal 'Literature and Medicine' 29:1 Spring 2011. as "Of Bodies, Families, and Communities:

Refiguring the 1918 Influenza Pandemic" Here is a link. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/449360/pdf Outstanding piece of work.

 

It is interesting to recall that during that pandemic, everything was made worse because there was no scientific evaluation of data. Statistics had not been invented. Neither had computers (or Bridge). Large ships had been invented and troops were packed into them like sardines. They were given cigarettes bad food and many contracted influenza and died as a result while their families and friends socially distanced at home. Remind you of anything? Cruise ships? At the same time, the White house Surgeon-General was recommending LETHAL doses of aspirin as a treatment for influenza (great). Which would have the added benefit of causing kidney disease and high blood pressure later on. The subsequent obesity epidemic in the United States has caused an epidemic of metabolic syndrome (AKA Syndrome X) characterised by obesity, hypertension, lipid disorders and diabetes. All of which attenuates ones ability to cope with the disastrous effects of reduced oxygen-carrying capacity associated with COVID-19.

But don't worry, like a miracle, it will all go away with the heat. And some disinfectant...

[barmar]

FYP and the answer is yes. Spoiled, in this sense, to me means not being able to look past your own desires. It is a self-serving approach that is common to adolescence and childhood - when we all think we are our personal center of the universe. It requires real growth to understand that we are all part of a community and that what is best for the community is more important that an individual want.

Where did you get the idea that my post was from a selfish point of view like that? If we were to stop these extreme measures, I think I would be just as likely as anyone else to catch the virus.

[Winstonm]

Where did you get the idea that my post was from a selfish point of view like that? If we were to stop these extreme measures, I think I would be just as likely as anyone else to catch the virus.

 

I didn't. My comment was directed at the wording only - "spoiled by modern medicine". I beg to differ. "Spoiled"without qualifier is more accurate.

[johnu]

Patient Dies After Going to 'COVID Party,' Thought It Was a Hoax: Official

 

"This is a party held by somebody diagnosed with the COVID virus and the thought is that people get together to see if the virus is real and if anyone gets infected," Appleby said. "Just before the patient died, they looked at their nurse and said 'I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it's not.'"

If this was a Republican politician, I would nominate them for a Darwin award.

[hrothgar]

Patient Dies After Going to 'COVID Party,' Thought It Was a Hoax: Official

 

 

If this was a Republican politician, I would nominate them for a Darwin award.

 

I've seen that same article

 

I am extremely skeptical.

It's just too precious.

 

It's not just the whole COVID party meme (there's been a lot of fake claims about this), but the whole dying last words thing...

 

I can potentially believe that there maybe something similar to COVID parties (bunches of idiots who believe that they're immune, who are having a party, and acting like jack assess). But random person gets COVID at one such party, then dies, then makes a deathbed convention with those words...

 

Nah

[pilowsky]

I've seen that same article

 

I am extremely skeptical.

It's just too precious.

 

It's not just the whole COVID party meme (there's been a lot of fake claims about this), but the whole dying last words thing...

 

I can potentially believe that there maybe something similar to COVID parties (bunches of idiots who believe that they're immune, who are having a party, and acting like jack assess). But random person gets COVID at one such party, then dies, then makes a deathbed convention with those words...

 

Nah

 

Hilarious, You must have lived a very cloistered life. Although it is true that 10% of the population is really clever. This, of course, means that at the other end of the normal distribution people can have some incredibly strange ideas. And they believe them very strongly.

 

 

It used to be a 'thing' when I was a child to send your children to the home of someone infected with measles or mumps. The idea was if they caught it when they were young it was less of a problem. I suspect that something similar may be happening here. Unfortunately, COVID19 is completely different. As I noted earlier many young people in the United States already have severe co-morbidities.

 

Here is a link to the CDC data showing that more than 20% of US youth is obese. For a long time, this was politicised and there was talk of 'fat-shaming'. Unfortunately, Post-modernism will not improve your oxygen-carrying capacity when a virus destroys your lungs. Being obese means that your body has a lot more work to do to get oxygen to the tissues. Your fitness is low and you will probably have diabetes and hypertension. It's like smoking, but heavier. Coupled with the USA being a failed state where 27.5 million citizens have no health insurance and for most of the others having health cover is dependent on being employed, this means that most US citizens are indentured slaves to their employers. No wonder they all want to go back to work even at risk of catching a potentially lethal disease.

 

So, combine a lack of competency in understanding the problem with economic frailty and social insecurity, is it surprising that the USA is in the situation it finds itself in now? Normal 1st world countries provide free healthcare to their citizens. This is a social contract that is anathema to the USA. There is no point in being puzzled, there are structural problems with the US as it is currently constituted that prevent it from operating as a normal adult society where the weakest, poorest and neediest are cared for, nurtured and protected.

 

Basically the "Framers" that everyone seems to love *****ed it up. The place needs a rethink. The white men that wrote the constitution were heroes for a different time and place. Not this one.

[hrothgar]

Hilarious, You must have lived a very cloistered life. Although it is true that 10% of the population is really clever. This, of course, means that at the other end of the normal distribution people can have some incredibly strange ideas. And they believe them very strongly.

 

 

It used to be a 'thing' when I was a child to send your children to the home of someone infected with measles or mumps. The idea was if they caught it when they were young it was less of a problem. I suspect that something similar may be happening here. Unfortunately, COVID19 is completely different. As I noted earlier many young people in the United States already have severe co-morbidities.

 

 

Learn to read ***** for brains...

 

I did not claim that COVID parties do not exist.

I did not claim that some people at COVID parties are contracting the virus.

I didn't even claim that some of them have died

 

For example, the following was well reported in the US

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/florida-teen-died-covid-19-attended-large-church/story?id=71647393

 

Rather, I am claiming that the combination of

 

1. Person goes to coronavirus party

2. Person contracts coronavirus

3. Person gets hospitalized

4. Person succumbs to the disease

5. Person's dying words are "Oh I guess it wasn't a hoax after all" or some such

 

is incredibly unlikely

 

The fact that this is incredibly unlikely + the fact that this makes for a great news story to feed to gullible idiots makes me believe that it is much more likely that someone took liberties with actual events than that this actually played out as described.

 

Back in the early days of the virus, we had a bunch of health care professionals here in the US misrepresenting the effectiveness of masks in preventing the spread of coronavirus in an attempt to stop runs on masks / preserve capacity for critical responders. This is a great example of the so-called "noble lie" or "Socratic lie" at work.

 

What we're seeing here might easily be another example there of.

[pilowsky]

Do you get really angry about everything? Chill Bill.

You should hear the things I've heard. Some people are really smart - they say clever things when confronted with great peril. Other people have the intelligence of mouldy hamburgers.

When my Father emerged from anaesthesia after his first brain tumour operation and I asked him "How are you" he replied "I gave that Surgeon a piece of my mind" - I'm not kidding. I suspect that he prepared that as a system check before the operation, but he was a Professor of Psychiatry so who can tell.

At the other extreme, I once visited a house as a Doctor and found a nearly lifeless eight-year-old child on the sofa. He could barely breathe or make a sound his asthma was so bad. The room was full of cigarette smoke. The TV was blaring. A small dog was shagging my leg. When I asked the parents and their friends to please stop smoking while I tried to simultaneously call an ambulance, give the child an injection and stop having congress with the ***** dog they told me to ***** off.

The problem was, there was an important show on TV. These people give each other Hallmark cards. They smoke during COVID19 pandemics. They are as thick as sticks, and they say the most ridiculous things - even when they just about to die.

If you had seen me play Bridge, you might understand what I'm saying.

But, don't talk to me about things in the real world that are unlikely.

Save your **** for someone who cares.

[barmar]

https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/48048/are-alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-to-intentionally-get-infected

[y66]

 

After the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officially recommended widespread use of face masks to help slow the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus, the minimalist medical mask quickly got reimagined as a fashion accessory. Then model Naomi Campbell—a famous germaphobe—and musician Erykah Badu stepped it up a notch, sporting custom hazmat suits for stylish social distancing. Now, with the novel coronavirus pandemic showing no sign of slowing, travelers are taking note.

 

Yezin Al-Qaysi says haute hazmats are just the thing to make flying feel safe again. In mid-April the co-founder of VYZR Technologies, a Toronto-based company specializing in personal protective gear, launched a new product called the BioVYZR via crowdfunding site Indiegogo. The $250, futuristic-looking outer layer resembles the top half of an astronaut’s uniform, with anti-fogging “windows” and a built-in hospital-grade air-purifying device. Paranoid flyers were quick to scoop it up, pre-ordering about 50,000 suits and raising $400,000 for the nascent company. The first batch is set to be delivered by the end of July.

 

...

 

Brooke Berlin, founder of Karoo Consulting, which focuses on business development for African travel companies, spends a lot of time in the air but isn’t sold on the BioVYZR. “I’ve been 1K with United for the past five years,” she says. “I will always wear a mask in public, but I have no interest in spending money—which could otherwise be used to support conservation and community efforts—on a protective suit, or playing into the fear of being around people or traveling by wearing something so extreme.”

 

Hillary France, founder of Brand Assembly, a business platform built to accelerate fashion and lifestyle brands, believes the fancy hazmat suit will have a moment and then fade quickly. “I don’t think this will replace the face mask as the garment we will put into the Covid-19 time capsule, but it is nice to be able to see someone’s smile,” she says.

 

The celebrity buy-in of stylish protective suits has others thinking that this hazmat suit is more than a fashion fad. Meredith Del Bello Zec, a mother of two young children who works as a New York-based buyer for Erica Wilson, a fashion boutique in Nantucket, Mass., says she’d invest in a BioVYZR.

 

“We’re in a moment where supermodels are traveling in full hazmat suits, so function and safety are, thankfully, the focus over all else—aesthetics included,” she explains. “That said, fashion will embrace this as it did with masks, and we will likely start to see versions of this type of gear evolve from designers at every level. I personally would look forward to a version that would be easy to wear when wrangling children on airplanes and through airports.”

 

Source: Jen Murphy at Bloomberg

[cherdano]

Anyone want to make a bet when pubs will get closed again in large parts of England? No matter how long I look at https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/deaths, it doesn't scream "OPEN THE PUBS" to me...

Update: A few weeks later, I have been staring at case counts to figure out whether opening pubs was a good idea. I really can't decide.

[pilowsky]

Update: A few weeks later, I have been staring at case counts to figure out whether opening pubs was a good idea. I really can't decide.

 

Either you have not been following current affairs, or you are under the influence of alcohol and your cognitive abilities are mildly impaired.

The graph clearly shows that:

• As soon as restrictions are lifted, caseload increases.
• The incubation period is 2 weeks.
• Alcohol causes a dose-related disinhibition of all function.
• It's a bad idea.
• More people will die,
• What is hard to decide?

[thepossum]

I have some very serious concerns about the way data is used or abused by people who place excessive priority on restricting all risk over the broader aspects of people's lives. There was and still is (for want of better word) a background of risk for so many things under what most people in the world would prefer a form of freedom. It is not legitimate to use a legitimiate lockdown (to control case numbers in a public health emergency) and the case numbers of Covid (or everyting else for that matter) under extreme lockdown as a basis for losing sight of and arguing against people's freedomas the preferred and essential state of affairs. Please do not distort data or graphs or anything in order to back up an extreme (but necessary) repressive set of measures. That way leads to a dangerous world. You could remove amost all risk of many things through ridiculously repressive measures. But I think it is a very questionnable position to take. Many people are also taking excessively simplisitc univariate crude numbers and models to argue any manner of dodgy positions. I do understand where some who make those arguments come from professionally and I respect that at a professional and ethical level. But come on people. We have to look at the full picture of every outcome variable from any measures. And also I would hope have some common philosophical position that controlling other's lives is an extreme measure to be avoided as much as possible. If we dont have that shared position to start with then we have problems. Maybe start superposing some graphs of other indicators, overlaid on the same with the same timings

 

I have been very concerned (as outlines in other discussions) about the tendency for people to abuse authority and misrerpesent data/research for countless agendas, for some areas of the media to apparently under some kind of questionnable control.

 

The subtitle for this thread is about being doomed to repeat history if we forget it. There are many other stakes we are ignoring and are doomed to repeat if we allow those tendencies to take over and restrict alternative views or at least be prepared to accept challenge. I have seen all manner of tactics used and inuslts thrown to try and tar all people to question any measures with the same brush. That in itself deserves analysis annd question. When research is misused and misrepresented, when professional people themselevs do it, when people abuse/misuse their authority, when people claim expertise they dont have, when political interests get in the way of tru discussion and debate. I have seen many disgraceful abuses of research findings by people of many levels of knowledge/claimed expertise (none to expert believe it or not), some with huge influence well beyond the level of ability to report things clearly and fairly. We all need to be eternally vigilant. I am sorry

 

PS I know I shouldnt really say this. But prior to Covid some cities/states in Australia decided to essentially close down their entertainment industries for health reasons when others chose to keep them open and explore other measures. And as an ex-UK resident if they had a constitution similar to the USA the second (of many) amendment would involve the right to sit in a pub with a nice glass of ale

[shyams]

Either you have not been following current affairs, or you are under the influence of alcohol and your cognitive abilities are mildly impaired.

Either you have not had the intellectual maturity to debate properly, or you are a troll who likes to interject ad hominem attacks just for kicks.

 

That (probably informative) post of yours would not have suffered if the first line was skipped or replaced by a neutral observation.

[johnu]

Either you have not been following current affairs, or you are under the influence of alcohol and your cognitive abilities are mildly impaired.

The graph clearly shows that:

• As soon as restrictions are lifted, caseload increases.
• The incubation period is 2 weeks.
• Alcohol causes a dose-related disinhibition of all function.
• It's a bad idea.
• More people will die,
• What is hard to decide?

Have you questioned your own cognitive abilities? :lol:

 

In your own bullet point, you say the incubation period is 2 weeks. Assuming the graph is accurate, it shows that cases went down for 2 days after the pubs opened, and then went back up to pre-pub opening levels and then goes up slightly.

 

You should not expect to see case numbers go up due to pub openings for about 2 weeks afterwards. So something else may have been going on to reverse the steady decline in case numbers. Maybe more tests being done or some other activities opening up about 2 weeks earlier that caused an increase in infections.

 

That being said, I agree that opening up pubs is a bad idea if you want to keep new infections low. Japan's health messaging on the coronavirus pandemic has been the 3 C's, avoid Closed spaces, Crowded places, Close contact settings. Pubs and most restaurants check all 3 C's. And if you are drinking or eating, you aren't wearing your mask. An inordinate number of cases in Japan originated in nightclubs and other large gatherings.

[Cyberyeti]

Have you questioned your own cognitive abilities? :lol:

 

In your own bullet point, you say the incubation period is 2 weeks. Assuming the graph is accurate, it shows that cases went down for 2 days after the pubs opened, and then went back up to pre-pub opening levels and then goes up slightly.

 

You should not expect to see case numbers go up due to pub openings for about 2 weeks afterwards. So something else may have been going on to reverse the steady decline in case numbers. Maybe more tests being done or some other activities opening up about 2 weeks earlier that caused an increase in infections.

 

That being said, I agree that opening up pubs is a bad idea if you want to keep new infections low. Japan's health messaging on the coronavirus pandemic has been the 3 C's, avoid Closed spaces, Crowded places, Close contact settings. Pubs and most restaurants check all 3 C's. And if you are drinking or eating, you aren't wearing your mask. An inordinate number of cases in Japan originated in nightclubs and other large gatherings.

 

Nightclubs appear to be a major issue, Catalonia is considering closing theirs again. That said the kind of people who would catch it in a nightclub would be some of the least at risk of serious illness providing they're sensible about not passing it on and don't live with older relatives.

 

We don't have enough data on the pub opening yet, but the pubs round here I believe are doing it pretty responsibly, although I've not even been to one to drink outside.

[FelicityR]

That being said, I agree that opening up pubs is a bad idea if you want to keep new infections low. Japan's health messaging on the coronavirus pandemic has been the 3 C's, avoid Closed spaces, Crowded places, Close contact settings. Pubs and most restaurants check all 3 C's. And if you are drinking or eating, you aren't wearing your mask. An inordinate number of cases in Japan originated in nightclubs and other large gatherings.

 

Here in the UK there are strict rules for pubs and restaurants - nightclubs are still closed as I write - and most have been following procedure. (Safety screens, app ordering, being seated at one table for the duration, no socialising within the pub, hand sanitation stations, disinfecting tables after every customer, etc.) The problem is that whilst the owners and managers of these establishments are making a sterling effort to apply safety guidelines and keep their businesses running with greatly-reduced capacities, some of the people visiting them are straying from social distancing guidelines, etc.

 

It is summer in the UK and many people can socialise - drink and eat - al fresco, and indoor establishments can have their windows open and have good ventilation. However, their is a train of thought that any second coronavirus wave will happen in the UK during the winter months when everyone will have to go inside and windows will be closed. Time will tell.

[pilowsky]

Nightclubs appear to be a major issue, Catalonia is considering closing theirs again. That said the kind of people who would catch it in a nightclub would be some of the least at risk of serious illness providing they're sensible about not passing it on and don't live with older relatives.

 

We don't have enough data on the pub opening yet, but the pubs round here I believe are doing it pretty responsibly, although I've not even been to one to drink outside.

 

It's true, The 'cognitive' thing was a cheap shot. Inspired by the shenanigans swirling around our Dear Leader. I hope everyone has enjoyed

. I never realised how important those extra points were at the end.

 

Every drink of alcohol lowers your mental acuity. It also lowers your ability to maintain social distancing.

One carrier may then spread it to others who will then transmit it to many who will then take it some to elderly relatives - do we really need to go over this all over again and again and again and again. encore et encore et encore et encore.arís agus arís agus arís agus arís eile.igen och igen och igen och igen.一遍又一遍

genug ist genug

[Cyberyeti]

Every drink of alcohol lowers your mental acuity. It also lowers your ability to maintain social distancing.

One carrier may then spread it to others who will then transmit it to many who will then take it some to elderly relatives - do we really need to go over this all over again and again and again and again. encore et encore et encore et encore.arís agus arís agus arís agus arís eile.igen och igen och igen och igen.一遍又一遍

genug ist genug

 

This is true, but it's the people where you can't lower their mental acuity because there basically isn't any to start with that are the problem.

 

If you live with older family members - don't go to a pub unless you're going to stay outdoors.

If you live on your own or with a partner and you go inside a pub then don't go and see your older relatives for a while.

[y66]

Sarah Gilbert, the researcher leading the race to a Covid-19 vaccine by Clive Cookson at FT:

 

When Sarah Gilbert heard about a mysterious new respiratory infection spreading in China in early January, she immediately wondered whether this was the long-dreaded Disease X — a previously unknown pathogen that would cause a catastrophic pandemic.

 

The vaccinology professor at Oxford university’s Jenner Institute had been preparing for just such a momentous event. Her lab had developed technology to create vaccines against virulent viruses. As soon as Chinese scientists published genetic details of the new coronavirus — providing a target for vaccine development — she moved ahead at full speed.

 

This week, Oxford published encouraging results from the first phase of testing of its ChAdOx1 vaccine, showing it generated antibodies and immune cells to recognise and kill the Sars-Cov-2 virus responsible for Covid-19.

 

“It is truly astonishing that, within 100 days of learning the genetic sequence of the virus, Sarah and her team were able to begin a clinical trial of the vaccine,” says John Bell, Oxford’s senior medical professor. “She is a terrific scientist. She knew exactly what was needed and was absolutely effective at getting it done.”

 

With 22 other potential vaccines also in clinical trials and more than 100 at earlier stages of research, the 300-strong Oxford team has competition. “The Oxford vaccine is the leader but that doesn’t mean it will win in the end,” admits Sir John, adding that the world will need several Covid-19 vaccines.

 

So far, in terms of demand, Oxford is well ahead. Since the university made pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca its commercial and manufacturing partner, the vaccine has won advance orders for more than 2bn doses from around the world — subject to safety and efficacy tests with tens of thousands of participants in coming months.

 

Prof Gilbert, 58, has become the public face of the project — although, like many scientists, she is a reluctant celebrity. She speaks confidently about the project at occasional press teleconferences but interviews are rationed and largely avoid personal matters. “My family want to keep their private lives to themselves,” she says firmly.

 

She is, however, willing to disclose a bit about herself. “I was born in Kettering [Northamptonshire] and grew up there, only leaving for university,” she says. “My mother was a primary school teacher and my father was office manager for Loake Bros shoes.”

 

After a biology degree at the University of East Anglia, she completed a PhD in biochemistry at Hull university, followed by jobs in the biotech industry at the Brewing Industry Research Foundation, Leicester Biocentre and Delta Biotechnology. In 1994, Prof Gilbert joined Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Medicine where she has worked ever since.

 

She gave birth prematurely to triplets in 1998. In an article for the university about work-life balance she wrote: “Nursery fees would have cost more than my entire income as a postdoctoral scientist, so my partner has had to sacrifice his own career in order to look after our children.”

 

The triplets are now following in their mother’s footsteps, with all three studying biochemistry at university. They were also early volunteers for the clinical trial of Oxford’s Covid-19 vaccine.

 

When Prof Gilbert began her Oxford career, she focused on malaria, before moving on to flu vaccines. After becoming professor of vaccinology in 2010, she started work on the approach that led to ChAdOx1. This uses a genetically engineered chimpanzee adenovirus — which causes mild cold-like symptoms in apes but does not normally infect people — to carry elements of a harmful virus into human cells, where they stimulate the recipient’s immune system.

 

At the time that Covid-19 appeared, Prof Gilbert was applying the technology to some of the nastiest viruses known to medicine, including Nipah, Lassa and Rift Valley fever. But, significantly, her lab had already produced a vaccine against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome — a lethal disease caused by another coronavirus. This provided a model for the Covid-19 vaccine.

 

Prof Gilbert is reluctant to predict whether and when ChAdOx1 will move beyond clinical trials to vaccinate large numbers against Covid-19. There are three elements of uncertainty, she says.

 

First, it is not clear how long the trials will take to produce results. It will depend on how much virus is circulating in the places where the testing is taking place, which include Brazil, South Africa and the US. Then, AstraZeneca and its manufacturing partners must organise production on a huge scale. Finally, the regulators must decide whether the vaccine works well enough to be approved: the US Food and Drug Administration has set a 50 per cent efficacy threshold for Covid-19 vaccines.

 

If all goes well, the Oxford team says ChAdOx1 might be available by the end of the year to vaccinate the highest priority recipients, with supplies expanding rapidly during 2021.

 

As others take charge of the manufacturing and regulation, Prof Gilbert continues to lead the research in Oxford, making sure the trials run smoothly and the team’s work is communicated promptly in scientific papers.

 

At the same time, she is thinking of how to make vaccine research more efficient than was possible in January. “We are still thinking about Disease X,” Prof Gilbert says. “If we’d had everything in place this time, we could have been at least a month faster, which would have made a big difference.”

[pilowsky]

This is true, but it's the people where you can't lower their mental acuity because there basically isn't any to start with that are the problem.

 

If you live with older family members - don't go to a pub unless you're going to stay outdoors.

If you live on your own or with a partner and you go inside a pub then don't go and see your older relatives for a while.

 

Permit me to introduce you to the concept of the "social contract". Imagine for a moment that you and your partner - who live on your own - and are asymptomatic carriers of a deadly disease that is highly contagious. Are you with me so far? Go to the pub...

At the pub, you meet some people... Are you following me now?

These people then go to their homes after touching the doorknob that you touched before the cleaner could clean it.

Oh dear, you have accidentally *****ed up the entire community.

Never mind. You had an enjoyable ale. Was it a cold Fosters?

[hrothgar]

 

You had an enjoyable ale. Was it a cold Fosters?

 

 

If it was enjoyable, it sure as hell wasn't Fosters.

 

15 or so years back, I actually wandered down to Sydney to help with the Vugraph for the Juniors championship.

For the most part, it was a great trip. Meet some wonderful people.

Had some memorable meals.

 

But, damn, mass market Australian beer is dreadful (And your understanding of Tex Mex even worse)

But had some truly inspired Chinese food.

 

As I recall, Coopers was actually drinkable