Grand Aspirations

[lamford]

[hv=pc=n&e=saq8653haqdacqj72&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=4d4s5d6sp]133|200[/hv]

Intercities Online Team Championship, last 16. High Standard

 

The favourable opponents have bumped the auction. Do you add a seventh?

[FelicityR]

Not expert-class, as I have said previously, but I believe it is real gamble to bid 7♠ here. The ♠s aren't solid, you're missing the ♣AK, the ♥K and the ♦A could well prove to be a useless honour if partner is void. Furthermore, North could well be void in ♣s and a Lightner Double could be made by North, when it may be possible to pick up the ♣ in a 6♠ even if South leads one.

 

I'll stick here. I prefer solid grand slams where the opponents haven't bid than distributional ones when anything could happen.

[Cyberyeti]

Do you have firm agreements what 5♥/5N/6♣/♦/♥ would have meant ? whether any of the new suits are fit bids for example.

 

Partner needs to have ♠K (or 6 of them), ♥K, ♣AK unless he has a 5 card suit in hearts or clubs to 2 honours although ♣A10 may well be enough.

 

I don't think I want to commit, partner could easily think Kxxxx(x), KJx(x), void, Kxx(x) is plenty for 6♠.

[broze]

Yep, sorry need more info as 6♠ bid leaves loads of negative inferences. If it is a pickup partner with no good agreements, I pass as you are not getting good IMP odds.

[mikeh]

I learned a long time ago that when the opponents have preempted you such that you are having to guess, swing low. To bid the grand, you need to see the odds of partner holding the magic cards as being far greater than 50-50. You are risking a loss of 17 imps if grand fails, and the opps at the other table bid 6H. To win 13 if grand makes. Plus maybe partner took an aggressive view and they play 5S or defend 6D for 800 or so.

 

As Hamman is supposed to have said, approximately: don’t play me for the magic cards, I won’t have them.

[nullve]

7♠.

[lamford]

Do you have firm agreements what 5♥/5N/6♣/♦/♥ would have meant ? whether any of the new suits are fit bids for example.

 

Partner needs to have ♠K (or 6 of them), ♥K, ♣AK unless he has a 5 card suit in hearts or clubs to 2 honours although ♣A10 may well be enough.

 

I don't think I want to commit, partner could easily think Kxxxx(x), KJx(x), void, Kxx(x) is plenty for 6♠.

I am sure that 6D would have been a good raise to 6S. Whether the others were discussed who knows. As it was the last 16 of the competition which had an all-play-all qualifier, I would expect a regular partnership.

[miamijd]

I am sure that 6D would have been a good raise to 6S. Whether the others were discussed who knows. As it was the last 16 of the competition which had an all-play-all qualifier, I would expect a regular partnership.

 

Partner had a lot of options to choose from. X should be cards, not penalty on this bidding, as it's evident the opponents have 11 or so diamonds. 5NT is probably "pick a slam," although if you don't pick spades, partner can go back to spades to convey the idea. And then there is always 6D.

 

Instead, partner bid 6S, which sounds a lot like "I think you can make it if you have a halfway decent 4S bid." Since you need Ks, Kh, and AKc to make 7 a good gamble (yes, ATc might work, but then again, it might not), I would just pass, take my +1430/1460, and move on to the next one.

[msjennifer]

Deleted.

[msjennifer]

Sirs,i personally would like to make a polite and humble suggestion.We play a MODIFIED JOSEPHINE when the preemption reaches such a high level. Accordingly,'no Josephine no Grand'. Thanks.

[lamford]

 

As Hamman is supposed to have said, approximately: dont play me for the magic cards, I wont have them.

Barmar thinks it is "Don't play me for perfect cards, I won't have them", but I cannot find the quote.

 

On this board partner had the king of spades, king of hearts and ace, king of clubs, and grand was solid.

[pescetom]

Barmar thinks it is "Don't play me for perfect cards, I won't have them", but I cannot find the quote.

 

Me neither, but FWIW I found "Don't play me for perfect cards" attributed in 2009 to Barry Crane.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&e=saq8653haqdacqj72&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=4d4s5d6sp]133|200|

lamford 'Intercities Online Team Championship, last 16. High Standard. The favourable opponents have bumped the auction. Do you add a seventh?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

I rank

1. 7♠. Agree with Nullve, Partner jumped to 6♠ vul against not.

2. 7N. Might be safer.

3, Pass.

4, 6N. [/hv]

On this board partner had the king of spades, king of hearts and ace, king of clubs, and grand was solid.

Fair enough :)

Edited December 18, 2019 by nige1

[mikeh]

Ok, you pick up KJxx KJx xx Axxx, and hear 4D on your left, 4S by partner and 5D on your right. Your call?

 

Imo, anything less than 6S is timid. The opps rate to hold 10 or 11 diamonds, and if partner has a stiff, his hand will have compensation values....iow, he might well be stretching with a void, but will usually be full values with a diamond loser.

 

Bear in mind that one only needs 50-50 odds to bid the small slam, unlike bidding the grand where one needs far better odds for the decision to be best.

 

In addition, you have (sometimes) an extra chance to win when you bid 6S, especially if in tempo (and I mean 'in tempo'...I do not suggest bidding quickly), in that the NV opps may 'take out insurance' via 7D.

 

If you accept that such hands should bid 6S, then 7S by overcaller becomes s huge gamble, since the hand I gave you has basically no play...in fact, assuming no spots in clubs the only legitimate play is to hope the 4D opener has a stiff club King!. Good luck with that.

 

Bidding 7 on this hand reminds me of a Bramley-Lazard hand in the 1998 Rosenblum. Bramley opened, iirc, 3D at favourable, one of the Italians did something, double or 4D, and Lazard, with shortish diamonds and a terrible hand, jumped to 7D in tempo. His Italian LHO tanked for a long time and then finally inferred that his partner was almost surely void in diamonds, so bid 7H...which had a lot of tricks available, but failed on the lead of the diamond Ace. Now, full credit to Lazard for his imaginative 7D call with virtually no cover cards and shortish diamonds, but the point is that pushing to a grand when one's bidding space has been removed is a dangerous decision. And one hand (either my example, or the actual result) proves little:)

[cherdano]

Ok, you pick up KJxx KJx xx Axxx, and hear 4D on your left, 4S by partner and 5D on your right. Your bid?

This isn't even close to 6S in my view. What would you bid with AQxxxx Axxx x xx over 4D? It's a clear 4S in my view. Even if you don't accept that, there are millions of slightly stronger hands where everybody would bid 4S and you need some luck to make 5S opposite Mike's example hand - say AQxxxx Axx x Kxx.

[Cyberyeti]

This isn't even close to 6S in my view. What would you bid with AQxxxx Axxx x xx over 4D? It's a clear 4S in my view. Even if you don't accept that, there are millions of slightly stronger hands where everybody would bid 4S and you need some luck to make 5S opposite Mike's example hand - say AQxxxx Axx x Kxx.

 

I agree Mike's hand isn't the real problem, but there are several hands with lots of spades and a diamond void where 7 is no play or close to it where partner will stretch to bid 6.

KJxxx(x), KJx(x), void, K10xx(x) for example or variants with the club ace, only 3 hearts or lacking the J and no intermediates where you're pretty much down to a stiff K♣

[cherdano]

I agree with Cyberyeti. Whether you bid on to 7♠ depends a lot on how likely you judge partner to have a diamond void. Depends also on the opponents.

As an aside, (4D) 4S (5D) is an auction where forcing pass is very useful, even though we haven't shown the values to do so.

[mikeh]

This isn't even close to 6S in my view. What would you bid with AQxxxx Axxx x xx over 4D? It's a clear 4S in my view. Even if you don't accept that, there are millions of slightly stronger hands where everybody would bid 4S and you need some luck to make 5S opposite Mike's example hand - say AQxxxx Axx x Kxx.

I would not overcall with a minimum opening hand and a patchy suit, especially red v white over a 1st seat 4D, so I have no trouble passing with AQxxxx Axxx x xx. I understand bidding, but (and I recognize that many fine players would), it isn't my style. It isn't just that double on my left spells 800-1100 against a partscore or NV game, since one cannot live in fear at the bridge table. However, one has a partner, and my preference is to have a my hand be stronger the higher I need to overcall. For example, AQxxxx x Axxx xx is a minimum but 'do it every day' 2S call over a 2H opening, but is below expectations for a 3S overcall of 3H...although I would probably do it, especially if you gave me the 10 of spades.

 

And, yes, I would always bid with the AQxxxx Axx x Kxx hand, but would see that as close to the worst hand I could have for the action.

 

Given that, my example for advancer to bid 6S was a little weak, but not by much. You can't have it both ways, when the opps put you under pressure. You should not aim to avoid bad small slams yet be aggressive when bidding grand slams...it should be the other way around, simply based on arithmetic. A small slam, assuming the opps swing the other way and stay at the 5 level, need be no better than a 50-50 proposition, plus a small amount for the opps taking a phantom. The grand has to be heavily odds-on.

 

So one reason I would pass some hands on which Arend would bid 4S is that I want my partner to err on the aggressive side in advancing my overcall, and the weaker the overcall may be, the less he can be aggressive. Note that if advancer merely bids 5S, East will very rarely be able to bid 6 even when it is strongly favoured, if one knew advancer's hand, to be a good contract.

[nige1]

CyberYeti MikeH & co advance powerful arguments.

 

Mike's example hand, posted on BridgeWinners, in quiz format

 

Lamford's OP six level decision hand, slightly camouflaged, on BridgeWinners, in quiz format

[johnu]

Lamford's OP six level decision hand, slightly camouflaged, on BridgeWinners, in quiz format

I get a bad link error.

[nige1]

I get a bad link error.

Thanks, JohnU. Fixed :)

[johnu]

My question about partner is whether they are thoughtful enough to bid 6♦ with a diamond void instead of 6♠?

[apollo1201]

I’d be less worried in bidding 7 if my green opponents had the possibility to save at 8D🤣

[Cyberyeti]

My question about partner is whether they are thoughtful enough to bid 6♦ with a diamond void instead of 6♠?

 

Not sure that is what it shows, for some it will be the bid to show 6 and a half spades

[johnu]

Not sure that is what it shows, for some it will be the bid to show 6 and a half spades

Obviously there may not be that much difference between having enough for 6 or 7 when 4♠ overcall can have a pretty large range.

 

And there's also 5NT. Could be pick a slam, or maybe a grand slam try in spades. If pick a slam, converting to 6♠ shows it was a grand slam try.

 

May not be something you want to bid with an unimaginative partner if you don't have an agreement.