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unlucky or overbidding?


AL78

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MPs, I was West:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s82hk83dat8653ck3&w=s95hqt95dqcqjt954&n=st73hj64dj742ca82&e=sakqj64ha72dk9c76&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=p1s2dd3d4sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

One off for a 25% score EW. Three others were going off in game, two stopped in 3, one made 4.

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You can't double with the West hand IMO. What will happen if partner has a weak NT? With 5332 he might pass, with 5323 he might bid 3, with 5233 he might bid 3.

 

I agree you can't double, but with a weak NT he will always pass 3, if you had 5 and enough to interest him, you'd have bid 2. YOu also didn't bid 2 which you often will with 3.

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Late posting to the thread but here are my thoughts:

 

1. I think that double by west is a poor choice, although it will sometimes work well. I will elaborate below

 

2. I think 4S by east is a poor choice, because of the Kx in diamonds. As it happens, partner has Est covered in that suit, but most of the time Kx is a terrible holding when South has overcalled in the suit. Sure, maybe South will lead the suit, given the raise, but he might not. Even if he does, promoting the K, that King is unlikely to be combining well with dummy's values. 3S is sufficient in my view. Yes, it is not as strong as it would be were North to have passed, and east able to jump, but it is not a weak bid, given that west has denied spade support via the double.

 

As for the double of 2D: I see this as justified only if one fails to anticipate the auction that may ensue.

 

Firstly, north is quite likely to raise. We have a stiff diamond, so a priori, given that we tentatively place south with a 6 card suit (5-7, but 6 most common), North rates to have 3 diamonds. Also our hand is weak, so North rates to have a modicum of values, and will therefore often raise.

 

If north raises, east is under pressure. With a hand that is a heavy 2-level bid, he will stretch to bid at the 3-level. With a hand that is a heavy 3-level bid (if north passed) he will stretch to bid at the 4-level, as indeed he did. In either case, our hand rates to be a disappointment.

 

What if North does not raise? Then east may be passing! Now, our diamond queen suggests this is unlikely, even if east has 4 diamonds, but unlikely is not impossible. What when he doesn't pass?

 

We're ok, sort of, if he chooses 2S, so long as they allow him to ruff a diamond or two, but how likely is that? We're probably in good shape if he has 4 hearts, but how likely is it that he has 4 hearts AND the opps did not bid 3D? Meanwhile, if he chooses to bid hearts on a 3 card suit, we rate to be tapped early on, and why should hearts be 3-3?

 

As for clubs....it is technically possible that he has 4 clubs, but if he does then the opps are almost surely bidding 3D, and he often can't/won't/shouldn't bid clubs over 3D, absent a very strong hand, since the usual style is that the double of 2D is about hearts, not 'the other two suits'.

 

So while I understand the desire to compete, here I think that the wiser course, on this horrible hand, is to pass. Now, if I had that hand and found myself taking time to work all of this out (and fortunately I have played long enough that I have learned to at least try to pass in tempo), I might well choose the double, since my break in tempo will bar partner. After all, one of the saving graces of a pass is that an in tempo pass does not bar partner. While there will be hands when passing ends up creating a bad result, because partner is unable to bid over 3D, as an example, on many hands where it is right to compete, east will indeed have a hand on which he can take action. Here, for example, I think that white v red 3S stands out. We're unlikely to get doubled when they can't have a trump trick.

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