Surprising and strange statistic

[AL78]

I use Pianola which gives information on scores throughout the year and average statistics. These statistics state that over last 12 months, I have defended around 72% of the time (72.19 to be exact). This is close to what I expected intuitively, as in 24 or 28 board movement, most of the time I only declare three or four times. This happens even if I hold average HCP strength over the evening. I play around three or four times a month so this average is over quite a lot of hands. This seems way too high, it should be not far from 50% over a lot of hands. Could this point to something I am doing wrong in the bidding, and is a good way to address why I defend so much? I think one reason is I pick up a lot of flat single digit point counts which are hard to get into the auction with if partner does not bid, but haven't properly analysed this.

[gordontd]

It suggests you are not bidding enough. In particular, you and your partner probably don't protect enough in the pass-out seat.

[pescetom]

I think one reason is I pick up a lot of flat single digit point counts which are hard to get into the auction with if partner does not bid, but haven't properly analysed this.

Everyone picks up a lot of flat single digit point counts, of course. Maybe you are wondering if it is mainly partner's fault. Do you play with multiple partners and if so is the ratio similar with each?

[Tramticket]

Are you tending to finish at or near the top of the field? If so, be happy that you are playing with opponents who overbid!

 

But if, as I suspect from your question, you are not finishing high then you need to look at your competitive bidding strategies. Are you competing in line with the Law of Total Tricks?

[TylerE]

What does it count when you're dummy? If it doesn't, you would expect to defend 67% of the time.

[AL78]

I'm thinking I am doing something wrong, because it happens most of the time with different partners. Four hands seems to be the standard number I declare in a session. Yesterday, I played with a pickup partner and between us, we declared half the time, but he declared eight times and I declared only four times, despite my average HCP count being 10.54 and his HCP average being 9.12. A week and a half ago, I played with my strongest partner and it was one of the more enjoyable bridge sessions, I only declared three out of 27 hands, he declared nine times, his average HCP was 9.15, mine was 9.59. Earlier this week I played with an enthusiastic beginner who I am helping to improve, out of 22 boards I only declared three times, we both had above average HCP counts. A couple of weeks ago when I was assisting on the beginners evening, I sat in and played with someone who had no partner, out of 15 boards I didn't declare at all. It just keeps going on like this, every time I go to the club I think optimistically this time will be different, or the declarer drought will ease, but it almost never happens. It wouldn't be so bad if I was doing well but I frequently get mediocre results (significantly worse than a decade ago) with partners I should do better with, sub 50% about a third of the time, usually 50-55%, and the rare high 50's low 60's. My NGS rating has dropped a good 5% over the last few years or so. In 2016, it was up around 60%, in 2017 the rot set in and it is down to 55% now.

 

Yes I do use the law of total tricks for guidance and do bid to the level of the fit with a decent trump fit in a competitive auction. I'm loathe to bid again if I think I have bid my hand fully. I have asked my strongest partner what he thinks I am doing wrong but he takes the line of "It goes like that sometimes", yes it does but not for two years straight. I cannot believe this is just statistical randomness.

[AL78]

What does it count when you're dummy? If it doesn't, you would expect to defend 67% of the time.

 

It categorises as declaring side, defending side and pass out. Over the last 12 months these are 27.25%, 72.19% and 0.56%.

[FelicityR]

I used to work for the NHS (National Health Service) and whilst I am no expert on psychological issues I do have experience, and what you describe may be attributed to this.

 

I say this with sincere kindness, in essence you are perhaps overanalysing statistically what is happening at the table and, perhaps now, it is having an effect on your play and bidding. Effectively, you are stuck in a rut.

 

How you get out of this rut I cannot say, but maybe just try to enjoy the game for what it is and not get too dependent on how you are fairing results-wise. Most people look at bridge as a social game, an interaction with other like-minded people. Winning isn't everything: it's the taking part that counts.

[johnu]

It's not necessarily a bad thing to be the declaring side less than 50% if your results are good. Maybe you can analyze your results broken down by hands your side declares, and hands you defend.

 

Assuming your numbers are relatively correct (it doesn't really seem that they could be) then you should look at the hand records to see what they other players are doing. Take a look at the results for some of the best players in your club. There are numerous reasons that could be in play. Not competing high enough, not overcalling often enough, not opening some minimum hands. Another possibility is that your opponents overbid against you because you don't double enough, or defend well enough to make them pay when they have overbid. This is all speculation without seeing some representative hands.

[StevenG]

My instinct is that it is not necessarily you that is at fault. It is more likely that your partner(s) are not active enough in balancing situations. (I'm assuming that a successful balancing double leads to the other player becoming declarer.)

[pescetom]

Even it is you at fault (as equal percentages with different partners would suggest) it doesn't necessarily mean you are simply under bidding. It may be that your partners are over compensating for your unsound lower level bids, or whatever.

 

I agree with johnu that you should make a habit of a post mortem where you see what contracts others played and with what results, enquiring about the bidding if necessary. If you can do it together with partner all the better.

[Zelandakh]

Could you perhaps post the hands from the last session where you ended up defending when your side had, say, 18-23hcp? Perhaps we can identify a pattern in your bidding style that might be a contributing factor.

[AL78]

Could you perhaps post the hands from the last session where you ended up defending when your side had, say, 18-23hcp? Perhaps we can identify a pattern in your bidding style that might be a contributing factor.

 

Yes I'll do that, when I get some time. It is going to take me a while to go through past hands where I can remember the bidding and then try and post them.

[AL78]

I used to work for the NHS (National Health Service) and whilst I am no expert on psychological issues I do have experience, and what you describe may be attributed to this.

 

I say this with sincere kindness, in essence you are perhaps overanalysing statistically what is happening at the table and, perhaps now, it is having an effect on your play and bidding. Effectively, you are stuck in a rut.

 

How you get out of this rut I cannot say, but maybe just try to enjoy the game for what it is and not get too dependent on how you are fairing results-wise. Most people look at bridge as a social game, an interaction with other like-minded people. Winning isn't everything: it's the taking part that counts.

 

It is a self esteem issue. Doing badly in a competitive game/sport where I used to do well is demoralising. Regression is rarely, if ever good. Doing your best and going home with another sub 50% score and feeling lousy is not good either. I did consider stopping playing but then I lose one of my primary social events.

[pescetom]

It is a self esteem issue. Doing badly in a competitive game/sport where I used to do well is demoralising. Regression is rarely, if ever good. Doing your best and going home with another sub 50% score and feeling lousy is not good either.

 

Of course. Did you have the same partner(s) when you were doing well? If not, can you list (to yourself) what is different in your current partnership(s)? Your current partner(s) must be equally unhappy, have you tried discussing the issue with them? Have you lost reciprocal trust and might that be a big part of the problem?

[AL78]

I'm struggling to find good examples of where we lost the partscore battle and got a bad score, and I can remember the bidding. I have noticed one way we are getting bad scores which there is nothing we can do about, that is, opposition bidding games and slams that are only bid once or not at all at the other tables. I have found a couple of evenings where our opponents bid a slam on a combined 33HCP and it is either significant imps out or a near bottom, because almost everyone else stays in game, or bids the NT slam that goes off.

 

Here is a partscore hand we lost:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj93h2daqt6c8763&w=s72hqt7dk954cakj9&n=sak654ha84dj8ct42&e=st8hkj9653d732cq5&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=1np2dp2hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I was North. I didn't think my hand was good enough for a 2♠ overcall over what could be unlimited opponents. Sadly I was wrong, all other Norths overcalled and found the spade partscore so we got a near bottom.

 

I've just noticed I haven't set the vulnerability correctly. EW were vulnerable.

[akwoo]

The hand you posted

 

1) Are you in an area where weak NT is common? (This does have some marginal effect on various decisions, so it helps us to know.)

 

2) Over a 12-14 NT, I would say an immediate 2♠ overcall is reasonable but not required. If you instead had a singleton diamond spot and a 4th card in some other suit, I would say 2♠ (or whatever convention you have for interfering with 2-suited hands over 1N) is clear. (And, indeed, if you had a singleton diamond and a 4th club instead of what you had, you are odds-on for 4♠.)

 

3) South should not pass that hand out. With a singleton heart and 4 in every other suit, it's a clear balancing double. Non-vulnerable as South, I would strongly consider bidding 2♥ (takeout) over the 2♦ transfer bid.

 

4) Is it the case that your opponents managed to find the slam because you didn't get in their auction and mess it up?

 

5) In general, I am definitely getting the sense that you are not bidding enough. You have to get into the mindset that -100 is a better score than -110.

[Zelandakh]

AL, there is a general principle that in part-score auctions it is the hand that has shortage in the opps' suit that should act even if they have less hcp strength than their partner. There is a second principle that the most advantageous time to act on such hands is at Love All. On this hand, it is absolutely clear that South should not pass out 2♥. That would still be the case if you take away an honour.

 

Another general principle is that when the opps make weak bids, our calls are constructive and when the opps announce great strength our bids are disruptive. In keeping with this, unlike akwoo I would not want to act directly over 2♦ as for me that should show constructive values over a Weak NT. After the second round pass though, passing is very meek.

 

As far as your hand goes, weak players will often overcall 1NT with a nondescript 5332 whereas most experts do this very rarely. With a 6th spade or some extra shape, such as a 4th heart, I would be all for getting involved. You are being too hard on yourself here though in blaming yourself. Worse than that, if you find yourself bidding on hands where you should be passing it actually discourages your partner from competing aggressively on hands where it should be their responsibility. Instead, consider making an agreement with your partner that for the next 3 months you never pass out an opponents' 2 level contract with a singleton or void in their suit. If nothing else, it might help you and your partner to understand when you/they can afford to get involved and when to exercise caution once the experimental period has finished.

 

OK, now let's see Hand #2. :)

[hrothgar]

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj93h2daqt6c8763&w=s72hqt7dk954cakj9&n=sak654ha84dj8ct42&e=st8hkj9653d732cq5&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=1np2dp2hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I was North. I didn't think my hand was good enough for a 2♠ overcall over what could be unlimited opponents. Sadly I was wrong, all other Norths overcalled and found the spade partscore so we got a near bottom.

 

I've just noticed I haven't set the vulnerability correctly. EW were vulnerable.

 

FWIW, I would pass with your hand, however, South has a mandatory balance

[helene_t]

While it's clear that South should double, it is less clear how to continue after EW bid 3♥. Who should bid 3♠?

[neilkaz]

I'm struggling to find good examples of where we lost the partscore battle and got a bad score, and I can remember the bidding. I have noticed one way we are getting bad scores which there is nothing we can do about, that is, opposition bidding games and slams that are only bid once or not at all at the other tables. I have found a couple of evenings where our opponents bid a slam on a combined 33HCP and it is either significant imps out or a near bottom, because almost everyone else stays in game, or bids the NT slam that goes off.

 

Here is a partscore hand we lost:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj93h2daqt6c8763&w=s72hqt7dk954cakj9&n=sak654ha84dj8ct42&e=st8hkj9653d732cq5&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=1np2dp2hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I was North. I didn't think my hand was good enough for a 2♠ overcall over what could be unlimited opponents. Sadly I was wrong, all other Norths overcalled and found the spade partscore so we got a near bottom.

 

I've just noticed I haven't set the vulnerability correctly. EW were vulnerable.

Send the paramedics to check your PD for a pulse for not balancing with X.

[pescetom]

I too would pass with north's hand, although it's far from nondescript. South has the easiest decision in the world.

[barmar]

I have noticed one way we are getting bad scores which there is nothing we can do about, that is, opposition bidding games and slams that are only bid once or not at all at the other tables.

This happens to everyone. But that means that in the long run it should cancel out -- sometimes it will happen to you, sometimes it happens to other players. Similarly, sometimes you'll get lucky and the opponents will hand you gifts when they overbid or misdefend.

 

But if you're getting consistently poor results, it can't just be due to bad luck like this. There are almost certainly more hands like the one you posted, where your side didn't bid enough, than hands where the opponents found miracle slams.

 

My regular partner of almost 2 decades is a conservative bidder, too. He often downgrades hands that others would open (or downgrades strong 1NT openings to suit openings), and we get poor results. We could get away with this in flight B, but since graduating to flight A we have had consistently poor results, and I've mostly stopped playing with him in tournaments, we just play our regular weekly club game.

[AL78]

This happens to everyone. But that means that in the long run it should cancel out -- sometimes it will happen to you, sometimes it happens to other players. Similarly, sometimes you'll get lucky and the opponents will hand you gifts when they overbid or misdefend.

 

But if you're getting consistently poor results, it can't just be due to bad luck like this. There are almost certainly more hands like the one you posted, where your side didn't bid enough, than hands where the opponents found miracle slams.

 

My regular partner of almost 2 decades is a conservative bidder, too. He often downgrades hands that others would open (or downgrades strong 1NT openings to suit openings), and we get poor results. We could get away with this in flight B, but since graduating to flight A we have had consistently poor results, and I've mostly stopped playing with him in tournaments, we just play our regular weekly club game.

 

Oh I know it can't be just bad luck, as luck should swing both ways over time. I'll try and dig out some more hands for you to look at where I got a bad score on a competitive partscore hand. I may have to go back a year or so because I've forgotten what happened in the bidding on recent evenings. There might be one or two from 2018 which ring a bell.

[AL78]

[hv=pc=n&s=skjt3hkjt7d873ct6&w=s7542hq9642d96cq5&n=sa986h85dkqjck872&e=sqha3dat542caj943&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=pp1n2dppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I was North. 2♦ makes exactly for a NS bottom. It was an evening with only three and a half tables, and this board only got played three times. The other two scores were 1NTX= by North, and 2♠+1 by North (they may bave been playing a strong NT 5 card major system).