Slam missing two keycards?

[thepossum]

Hi all

 

I recently had this hand as responder playing IMPs white vs white, opposite a 1 Spade opener.

 

How do people feel about the best ways to progress with this.

 

We have a total of 32+ points and despite my hand being flat few enough losers to consider slam in spades or NT. I wasnt sure how to progress and bid Blackwood immediately, receiving a 5D response and debated on going to 6NT or 6S missing possibly two aces, but decided to sign off in 5S+1

 

Sure enough 6S and 6NT make since we had the Ace of Spades. Other options I considered were Jacoby 2NT when opener follows up with 3D (short diamonds) then cue bids etc. However as far as I understand the cue bids it is hard for North to show its Ace of spades without it being a sign off

 

How would you evaluate this hand and chances of slam and what do you think are the best ways to bid and the best chance contract. I know I was being a bit cautious and on another day would have taken a chance on 6NT or 6S. Is the chance of 6 high enough at IMPs to take the chance

 

It was definitely one that got away

 

regards P

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sq762haq72dakqckj&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1sp4n(Blackwood)p5d(1%20keycard)p5sppp]133|200[/hv]

 

PPS Undeleted. Sorry

[FelicityR]

2NT Jacoby. To lose two rounds of bidding with 4NT is just wasteful. At least explore at a lower level what partner's hand is. 4NT and partner's response can always be saved until later.

[Tramticket]

When you jump to 4NT you take out three rounds of bidding at one bid. This is three rounds that could have been used to find out more about partner's hand! You have the values for a slam so it might seem obvious to just check for controls. But maybe a grand slam is on? Or slam in another strain (e.g. no trumps).

 

Why not start by making a forcing bid to agree spades? Do you play a 2NT response as Jacoby? At the moment you know nothing about your partner's hand other than he/she has opening values and 5+ spades (if playing five-card majors). Maybe partner has a void?! Or a second suit which might have a legitimate play for slam?

 

I assume that the 4♦ response showed one keycard - meaning that you are missing two. A slam missing an ace and the king of trumps is likely to be on a finesse at best, so I would not want to be in it. If it happens to make, there is not much you can do - there is no bidding system that can pin-point which opponent holds a specific card!.

[Lovera]

Hi all

 

I recently had this hand as responder playing IMPs white vs white, opposite a 1 Spade opener.

 

How do people feel about the best ways to progress with this.

 

We have a total of 32+ points and despite my hand being flat few enough losers to consider slam in spades or NT. I wasnt sure how to progress and bid Blackwood immediately, receiving a 5D response and debated on going to 6NT or 6S missing possibly two aces, but decided to sign off in 5S+1

 

Sure enough 6S and 6NT make since we had the Ace of Spades. Other options I considered were Jacoby 2NT when opener follows up with 3D (short diamonds) then cue bids etc. However as far as I understand the cue bids it is hard for North to show its Ace of spades without it being a sign off

 

How would you evaluate this hand and chances of slam and what do you think are the best ways to bid and the best chance contract. I know I was being a bit cautious and on another day would have taken a chance on 6NT or 6S. Is the chance of 6 high enough at IMPs to take the chance

 

It was definitely one that got away

 

regards P

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sq762haq72dakqckj&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1sp4np5dp5sppp]133|200[/hv]

 

This hand seems very close at that mine (#7) in "Redeal" that i bidded so:https://www.bridgeba...post__p__973835

Where was you playing and what's the opening lead ? Thanks.(Lovera)

[johnu]

Sure enough 6S and 6NT make since we had the Ace of Spades. Other options I considered were Jacoby 2NT when opener follows up with 3D (short diamonds) then cue bids etc. However as far as I understand the cue bids it is hard for North to show its Ace of spades without it being a sign off

 

Results merchant, and not in any good way. Unless North has 8+ spades, you basically need a spade finesse (only possible if North has the jack), or 1-1 spades if North has 7 spades. While I have been in worse slams, this is basically at best a 50% slam. How are you planning to find out about the trump jack?

 

If ♠K was offside, would you still be asking for ways to get to slam?

[thepossum]

Results merchant, and not in any good way.

 

Thanks for ruining another of my threads with your obnoxious unnecessarily rude personal attacks

 

If you had bothered to even read my thread and look at my auction you would have noticed that I made the correct decision and stopped in 5S

 

What an obnoxious piece of ***** you are johnu. You and a bunch of others on this site

 

My thread was asking about options on how to explore slam with that hand. Some people had the politeness and decency to address my question instead of being a totally obnoxious ****

 

Never comment on my threads again please

 

I've been standing up to the bullies on this site for a year now and I will continue to do it whenever one of you dares to show your faces on my threads or at my tables.

[Cyberyeti]

There is a lot to be said for 4N direct over 1♠ to be normal blackwood not keycard given that you can go via 2N for keycard, it's clearly the wrong bid here.

 

Yes you explore via a 2N response and keycard and signoff.

 

What are you going to do if partner shows 2 keycards ?

 

Does he have AKxxx, KJx, J, xxxx ? where 6N by you is cold but 6♠ in jeopardy on a club lead thru the KJ or does he have KJ1098, Jx, J Axxxx which maybe you don't open but we certainly do where 6N is poor but 6♠is fine

[Vampyr]

There is a lot to be said for 4N direct over 1♠ to be normal blackwood not keycard

 

Isn’t this 100% standard?

[Cyberyeti]

Isnt this 100% standard?

 

Not 100% by any means. I struggle to see a hand on which you'd use it, where other action won't be better, maybe Axxxxxx, KQJ, KQ, A opposite a 5 card spade, it's vanishingly rare.

[johnu]

...

Misc drivel deleted ...

...

 

Have you gone off your medications this week B-)

 

BTW, if stopping in 5♠ is the correct decision, why would you possibly be looking for a "better" auction to get to 6♠/6NT :rolleyes:

[Cyberyeti]

Have you gone off your medications this week B-)

 

BTW, if stopping in 5♠ is the correct decision, why would you possibly be looking for a "better" auction to get to 6♠/6NT :rolleyes:

 

You really are unbearable, he didn't ask for an auction to 6, he asked for a better way to work out where he wanted to be, you quoted very selectively.

[johnu]

You really are unbearable, he didn't ask for an auction to 6, he asked for a better way to work out where he wanted to be, you quoted very selectively.

 

Do you know how to read? Don't bother answering, that was a rhetorical question.

 

OP wanted to know how to get to 6 because 6 was making, apparently on a finesse. So, not only did opener have ♠A but not ♠K, but apparently the ♠J (and you might need ♠10 to make 6 a decent percentage). Since you are such an expert, please explain your methods to find the ♠J, maybe the ♠10 if there are only 9 spades total, and also how to make the slam better than ~50%.

 

I stand by my original post. If ♠K was not taking a trick and 5 was the limit, would OP have thought it worthwhile to ask for an auction to get to 6? Based on previous posts by OP, I have my answer so that's why I said it was result merchanting. What's your opinion?

[hrothgar]

I'm going to post what is (probably) going to be a rather unpopular view.

 

1. I don't like 4NT because you'll be poorly positioned opposite a number of different responses.

2. Jacoby 2NT also doesn't grab me. While it has the advantage of establishing a low level GF, here once again I'm not sure whether most of the answers will help me.

 

So, I am going to recommend bidding 2!D.

 

If partner bids 2!H, I'm golden. After any other bid, I can rebid 3!S and invite a cue bid from partner.

[Cyberyeti]

Do you know how to read? Don't bother answering, that was a rhetorical question.

 

OP wanted to know how to get to 6 because 6 was making, apparently on a finesse. So, not only did opener have ♠A but not ♠K, but apparently the ♠J (and you might need ♠10 to make 6 a decent percentage). Since you are such an expert, please explain your methods to find the ♠J, maybe the ♠10 if there are only 9 spades total, and also how to make the slam better than ~50%.

 

I stand by my original post. If ♠K was not taking a trick and 5 was the limit, would OP have thought it worthwhile to ask for an auction to get to 6? Based on previous posts by OP, I have my answer so that's why I said it was result merchanting. What's your opinion?

 

I know how to read, you clearly don't, if you'd quoted his whole post which he's removed, it was clear to me that he was frustrated in that he couldn't see how to do anything better than bashing out keycard, a common beginners thought process.

 

I wouldn't be in this slam even if I knew partner had the A unless I thought from the auction he had a LOT of spades, but I don't think I would ever find out whether he had A or K.

[johnu]

I know how to read, you clearly don't, if you'd quoted his whole post which he's removed, it was clear to me that he was frustrated in that he couldn't see how to do anything better than bashing out keycard, a common beginners thought process.

 

Clearly you either don't know how to read and maybe haven't read any of OP's numerous meltdown posts. I suggest you read previous threads by the OP and see if you can see a pattern.

 

I'm guessing that OP is upset with me mainly because of my post #10 in this thread:

 

https://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/80599-rkcb-occasionally-erroneously-showing-queen/page__p__974921__fromsearch__1#entry974921

[Vampyr]

I'm going to post what is (probably) going to be a rather unpopular view.

 

1. I don't like 4NT because you'll be poorly positioned opposite a number of different responses.

2. Jacoby 2NT also doesn't grab me. While it has the advantage of establishing a low level GF, here once again I'm not sure whether most of the answers will help me.

 

So, I am going to recommend bidding 2!D.

 

If partner bids 2!H, I'm golden. After any other bid, I can rebid 3!S and invite a cue bid from partner.

 

This auction would be invitational for me. I am not a fan of 2/1GF, but it does work well in auctions of this sort.

[Lovera]

Having S that hand, with a surplus of points, we can say that N has ♠AJ1098 ♥K10xx ♦J ♣Qxx

[Cyberyeti]

Clearly you either don't know how to read and maybe haven't read any of OP's numerous meltdown posts. I suggest you read previous threads by the OP and see if you can see a pattern.

 

I'm guessing that OP is upset with me mainly because of my post #10 in this thread:

 

https://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/80599-rkcb-occasionally-erroneously-showing-queen/page__p__974921__fromsearch__1#entry974921

 

I;m fully aware of his history and I felt this post was better which is why I'm defending him this time, I felt you'd had a go at him on reputation not on what he actually posted.

[Tramticket]

I;m fully aware of his history and I felt this post was better which is why I'm defending him this time, I felt you'd had a go at him on reputation not on what he actually posted.

 

Unfortunately, thepossum's response at #6 was extremely unpleasant. It has been toned down through the re-edits.

 

I guess that we should all keep in mind when replying on the Novice and Beginner forum that poster are choosing to post on this forum because they are less experience. But there is no excuse for thepossum's response.

[Cyberyeti]

Unfortunately, thepossum's response at #6 was extremely unpleasant. It has been toned down through the re-edits.

 

I guess that we should all keep in mind when replying on the Novice and Beginner forum that poster are choosing to post on this forum because they are less experience. But there is no excuse for thepossum's response.

 

There was also no excuse for selectively quoting the OP to distort what he said to make him look worse and belittle him as Johnu did. I'm not surprised he was angry, but yes the response was over the top.

[johnu]

There was also no excuse for selectively quoting the OP to distort what he said to make him look worse and belittle him as Johnu did. I'm not surprised he was angry, but yes the response was over the top.

 

LOL. In my neck of the woods, a result merchant is somebody who wants to get to a poor, terrible, or impossible to bid contract just because it happens to make, either because of a lucky lie of the cards, or the actual defense. If somebody is honest, they will know whether they are result merchants or not. You could call result merchants excessively optimistic if you want if that sounds better. Some of my favorite bridge partners can be result merchants at times.

 

As far as selectively quoting OP, reread the original post (somebody quoted it) and OP wanted to bid a slam if partner has the trump ace, without finding out about the trump jack (of course, partner did have the trump jack so slam made).

[Cyberyeti]

LOL. In my neck of the woods, a result merchant is somebody who wants to get to a poor, terrible, or impossible to bid contract just because it happens to make, either because of a lucky lie of the cards, or the actual defense. If somebody is honest, they will know whether they are result merchants or not. You could call result merchants excessively optimistic if you want if that sounds better. Some of my favorite bridge partners can be result merchants at times.

 

As far as selectively quoting OP, reread the original post (somebody quoted it) and OP wanted to bid a slam if partner has the trump ace, without finding out about the trump jack (of course, partner did have the trump jack so slam made).

 

We clearly never read the same post:

 

How do people feel about the best ways to progress with this.

We have a total of 32+ points and despite my hand being flat few enough losers to consider slam in spades or NT. I wasnt sure how to progress and bid Blackwood immediately

How would you evaluate this hand and chances of slam and what do you think are the best ways to bid and the best chance contract.

 

These are not "I wanna bid slam because it makes", they are "should I bid slam ?"

 

It was definitely one that got away

 

Is the only mis-step in the post.

[johnu]

We clearly never read the same post:

 

How do people feel about the best ways to progress with this.

We have a total of 32+ points and despite my hand being flat few enough losers to consider slam in spades or NT. I wasnt sure how to progress and bid Blackwood immediately

How would you evaluate this hand and chances of slam and what do you think are the best ways to bid and the best chance contract.

 

These are not "I wanna bid slam because it makes", they are "should I bid slam ?"

 

It was definitely one that got away

 

Is the only mis-step in the post.

 

OP wrote

 

I wasnt sure how to progress and bid Blackwood immediately, receiving a 5D response and debated on going to 6NT or 6S missing possibly two aces, but decided to sign off in 5S+1

Translation just for you - I want to bid slam on at best a finesse - Note no mention of finding out about spade jack.

Sure enough 6S and 6NT make since we had the Ace of Spades. Other options I considered were Jacoby 2NT when opener follows up with 3D (short diamonds) then cue bids etc. However as far as I understand the cue bids it is hard for North to show its Ace of spades without it being a sign off

 

How would you evaluate this hand and chances of slam and what do you think are the best ways to bid and the best chance contract. I know I was being a bit cautious and on another day would have taken a chance on 6NT or 6S. Is the chance of 6 high enough at IMPs to take the chance

 

It was definitely one that got away

I don't know what you are reading but that's what I would call textbook result merchant analysis. It it an insulting term? IMO, not really. Just a common shorthand description.

[wuudturner]

Sadly, this seems to have degenerated into a flame war, for no good reason.

 

The question at hand is, do you want to be in slam off two keycards? NO. Winning at bridge is a probability thing. If you make the choice that gives you the best chance of winning on every hand, then in the long run, you will win. Avoid the choices that are low probability. Winning bridge is simple in theory, though seemingly harder in practice.

 

So what are the odds here? I won't even get into the question of whether an immediate 4NT was right or wrong (or even what variety of Blackwood it would be.) It told you what you need to appreciate. ONE keycard. There are 3 keycards you do not know about, the !SA, !SK, !CA.

 

If partner has the spade king, then you are missing two aces. If partner has the club ace, then you are missing the top two trumps. Only if partner has the spade ace, do you have a chance, and then not even always. For example, give partner a hand like this:

 

A98xx

KJTx

J

QTx

 

If you can drop the spade king singleton, then the other hand will have JTx in spades, so a sure trump trick for them, no matter what you do.

 

The point is, if partner has only one keycard here, then the odds of slam being successful are roughly 16.7%, at best. That is, partner will have the right keycard (the spade ace) only 1/3 of the time, and even then, slam will at best be on a finesse. Avoid 17% slams.

 

That slam did make is not relevant. You just shrug your shoulders and accept it, wishing you had a pair of side-focal glasses, so you could know when to bid those slams. (Mine are on back-order at the optometrist.)

 

Finally, the question of whether you should blast a 4NT ask over 1!S. I'd say it was not the end of the world, but that usually it is best to go slowly with good hands. Here that means to start with 2NT, if it shows a game forcing spade raise with 4+ trumps. You might be able to learn something useful from partner. So use slow, cooperative bidding on the biggest hands. Bidding is a partnership thing. (That is advice I have admittedly in the past failed too often to heed.)

[TheoKole]

Hi all

 

I recently had this hand as responder playing IMPs white vs white, opposite a 1 Spade opener.

 

How do people feel about the best ways to progress with this.

 

We have a total of 32+ points and despite my hand being flat few enough losers to consider slam in spades or NT. I wasnt sure how to progress and bid Blackwood immediately, receiving a 5D response and debated on going to 6NT or 6S missing possibly two aces, but decided to sign off in 5S+1

 

Sure enough 6S and 6NT make since we had the Ace of Spades. Other options I considered were Jacoby 2NT when opener follows up with 3D (short diamonds) then cue bids etc. However as far as I understand the cue bids it is hard for North to show its Ace of spades without it being a sign off

 

How would you evaluate this hand and chances of slam and what do you think are the best ways to bid and the best chance contract. I know I was being a bit cautious and on another day would have taken a chance on 6NT or 6S. Is the chance of 6 high enough at IMPs to take the chance

 

It was definitely one that got away

 

regards P

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sq762haq72dakqckj&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1sp4n(Blackwood)p5d(1%20keycard)p5sppp]133|200[/hv]

 

PPS Undeleted. Sorry

 

 

One of the purposes of cue bids is also to receive information as to what Aces DOESN'T hold. This is also very useful information also. As for the auction I would suggest this: 1 ♠ - 2 NT (Jacoby) - 3 ♦ (shortness) - 3 ♥ (Cue bid) - 4 ♥ (Cue bid) (King of hearts since you have already cue bid hearts this shows 2nd round control) AND also denies 1st round control of ♣ and ♦ through a negative connotation that it was not cuebid. At this point, assuming that partner has their first round opener you can actually place most of their high card points. At this point, you know that you do not have a grand slam for example with this theoretical hand AKxxx, Kxx x Axxx. So know you can ask for key cards;

 

4 NT (key card ask) - 5 ♦(1 or 4 - which you know to be 1) at best, slam is on a finesse and at worst you are missing 2 aces which you know will cash. Do you bid slam hoping that partner has the Ace of ♠ AND that the King is finessable? The answer to that is no.

 

There are some hands that expert bidders, and declarers will get a bad score on compared to other players of lesser experience. This is usually when players take a very high percentage line on the hand and the low percentage line that the less experienced player uses because that the only one that they have experience in. ex. Finesse instead of an endplay. On your example board, bidding logically and getting the correct information will keep you out of this slam will get you a bad board on this particular hand against the less experienced player. You will gain points on the next 3 hands on average of this type that they make the incorrect percentage slam decision.

 

 

The only exception to bid slam on this hand is if you are playing MP's and are deliberately "shooting" for a swing score after you have correctly analysed previous boards and have correctly analysed that you need a swing top on this board for a good overall score. Please do not try this technique if you are not an expert in declarer play, bidding AND bidding of your partnership and the other partnerships that you are playing against. Also you should able to correctly estimate to a high degree of probability of the time how well you are doing in the middle of the set of boards.

 

 

Good luck.