What's your Brexit end-goal?

[cherdano]

As far as I can tell, none of the Tory leadership candidates have been asked what their ultimate goal for Brexit is. (If they have been, please correct me!) Anyway, let's do better than the UK media/politicians here and answer the important question.

[StevenG]

I'm comfortable with the deal Mrs May negotiated. I'd prefer it if the Irish border could be resolved without a customs union, but I don't see that happening, so a customs union it is.

[FelicityR]

Since the majority of the Northern Irish people want to remain in the EU, and religion is less prevalent as a dividing tool between the communities, and most of the Irish people respect the Good Friday agreement, it's about time Westminister seriously thought about letting-go of Northern Ireland as part of the Union.

 

There are plenty of European workers already both north and south of the border, and Ireland is as multicultural a country now as many parts of the UK. (I visited Eire recently and was surprised how many Europeans lived there.)

 

Obviously there will be dissenting voices in the Protestant community about such a merger, but having a border which still foments some ill-feeling between communities is not the way forward, I feel. Irish people are Irish whether they come from Eire or Northern Ireland, and its about time they put aside their religious differences and moved forward.

 

Many British people I know visit Eire, especially Dublin, and say it's a wonderful place to go to. The Irish people always treated me with warmth and genuine hospitality.

[shyams]

Since the majority of the Northern Irish people want to remain in the EU, and religion is less prevalent as a dividing tool between the communities, and most of the Irish people respect the Good Friday agreement, it's about time Westminister seriously thought about letting-go of Northern Ireland as part of the Union.

There is a material difference between pragmatic solutions and politically palatable solutions. I might agree with your analysis that NI and RoI can be treated as one contiguous country, still part of the EU. However, it is impossible for our politicians to even contemplate such a solution in the next few parliaments, let alone the present one with the wafer thin majority.

[Cyberyeti]

There is a material difference between pragmatic solutions and politically palatable solutions. I might agree with your analysis that NI and RoI can be treated as one contiguous country, still part of the EU. However, it is impossible for our politicians to even contemplate such a solution in the next few parliaments, let alone the present one with the wafer thin majority.

 

Impossible for a CONSERVATIVE government to contemplate.

[fromageGB]

I don't really see why there cannot be a border between two states with different regulations and tariffs. Personally, I would prefer movement to be borderless, with checks and financial controls elsewhere, but I don't believe the EU will allow that, and will put up border controls.

 

Equally, I would be delighted if we became GB instead of UK, and that is much simpler, but I don't see it happening. No state just gives territory away. Perhaps the EU could make us an offer?

[hrothgar]

I don't really see why there cannot be a border between two states with different regulations and tariffs.

 

There can be.

 

However, not if that border runs between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

[Gerben42]

Since the majority of the Northern Irish people want to remain in the EU, and religion is less prevalent as a dividing tool between the communities, and most of the Irish people respect the Good Friday agreement, it's about time Westminister seriously thought about letting-go of Northern Ireland as part of the Union.

 

There are plenty of European workers already both north and south of the border, and Ireland is as multicultural a country now as many parts of the UK. (I visited Eire recently and was surprised how many Europeans lived there.)

 

I know what you mean but actually everyone who lives in Ireland is European :-)

 

Obviously there will be dissenting voices in the Protestant community about such a merger, but having a border which still foments some ill-feeling between communities is not the way forward, I feel. Irish people are Irish whether they come from Eire or Northern Ireland, and its about time they put aside their religious differences and moved forward.

 

Many British people I know visit Eire, especially Dublin, and say it's a wonderful place to go to. The Irish people always treated me with warmth and genuine hospitality.

 

What about Scotland? They are even more pro remain than Northern Ireland.

My crystal ball says 31.10. some kind of Brexit, then Scotland and Northern Irland rebel and soon UK will have the choice between falling apart and reapplying for EU membership.

 

I like every part of the Divided Kingdom of Britain and Northern Ireland and I simply feel sorry for my friends there, whatever the outcome of Brexit.

[fromageGB]

Independence rebellions have been suppressed in many countries, and I'm sure they can be in Scotland and N.I.

(I'd let N.I. go and keep Scotland :) )

[cherdano]

Ok, thanks everyone for voting.

Now, can someone explain to me the conservative government's position on this? All Tory leadership candidates seem to be against a customs union; the EU won't accept a customs border between Ireland and NI; and in the backstop negotiations, the government essentially decided to prefer a customs union (I know it's quite a bit more complicated, but too large extent that is what it is) over a customs border between NI and Great Britain.

 

Is the goal to eventually accede to a customs border between NI and GB, but not say so explicitly as long as possible, only after the process has moved far enough that those opposed to it can no longer stop Brexit?

[Cyberyeti]

I'm not sure of the goals. I think they are hoping a technological soft customs border solution arrives before they have to implement it at the end of the negociation period, but not sure what plan B is or if they have one.

[fromageGB]

I don't think the current government's position is relevant. We are about to get a new government and its position will be markedly different. What that will really be, we have no way of knowing until Oct 31st, when opposing bluffs are exposed or win through. As far as I understand, plan A is a temporary tariff continuation agreed with the EU until long term arrangements can be agreed; plan B is WTO.

 

The EU have not really said it won't accept a customs border, as I have read that Eire is planning controls on the border if plan B materialises. Surely the EU will not want an open border?

[cherdano]

fromage you are answering a different question. I want to know what the long-term end goal is, not the pseudo-bluffs Johnson et al are making about the nearer future. And yes, by asking about the current government I meant to ask what it will want to do once Johnson is it's PM.

[Cyberyeti]

Is the goal to eventually accede to a customs border between NI and GB, but not say so explicitly as long as possible, only after the process has moved far enough that those opposed to it can no longer stop Brexit?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/18/northern-irish-unionists-fear-post-brexit-land-grabs?fbclid=IwAR1-SU1PdWIZkraD8wHnqcxrCjwoa3mjpapEafxfIi-db2C4U2TPEQMGwo8

 

When you have feelings like this around, and a customs border between NI/GB is seen as the first step to a united Ireland, it's going to be messy.

[cherdano]

Speaking of Northern Ireland, I am a little confused.

It seems obvious that Brexit would make reunification (of Republic of Ireland with NI) more likely.

 

Yet Sinn Fein opposes Brexit. And the DUP supports Brexit. At least there is a logic to Sinn Fein's position, but apparently the DUP is still under the illusion that NI can be treated identically to the rest of the UK in the post-Brexit UK-EU relations.

 

Who is deluded here, is it me or the DUP?

[Cyberyeti]

Speaking of Northern Ireland, I am a little confused.

It seems obvious that Brexit would make reunification (of Republic of Ireland with NI) more likely.

 

Yet Sinn Fein opposes Brexit. And the DUP supports Brexit. At least there is a logic to Sinn Fein's position, but apparently the DUP is still under the illusion that NI can be treated identically to the rest of the UK in the post-Brexit UK-EU relations.

 

Who is deluded here, is it me or the DUP?

 

The DUP are less than sane, they want incompatible things. Biggest failing among Theresa May's many huge failures is not getting the DUP in a room early in the process and asking them to spell out what they actually want, then pointing out that's impossible and why, and asking them what they want MOST.

[fromageGB]

Now it is me that is a little confused. I see no mention anywhere of anyone saying Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely : I think the opposite. A single Ireland is more likely when there is the current situation of no distinction between north and south, leading perhaps to a vote in the future for fusion, as probably thought by Sinn Fein. A foot in the door can lead to the door opening. Conversely, Brexit will likely cause the EU to create a border, and separation will harden.

 

Where is the "illusion" that NI is part of the UK? Again, that seems like a fact to me. Apart from minor controls released to peripheral regional assemblies, it will be governed by UK laws and UK trade agreements, have the same social services and health arrangements.

 

Longer term things will change. Initially the UK will be taking exports from Ireland duty free, but if the UE does not reciprocate and starts taxing ours, then we should and probably will follow suit. Maybe Ireland would leave the EU and have its own Eirexit so it can make its own trade arrangements.

[cherdano]

Today, apparently the Prime minister of the UK finally answered our poll question. Too bad he doesn't read BBF or he could have voiced his view much earlier.

[Zelandakh]

Could someone on the Brexit side of things perhaps explain how this (essentially creating an economic border within the UK) is in any way better than the May deal that everyone seems to agree was catastrophic? To me it seems to go against the reddest of red lines that was drawn up right at the beginning of the process.

[Cyberyeti]

Could someone on the Brexit side of things perhaps explain how this (essentially creating an economic border within the UK) is in any way better than the May deal that everyone seems to agree was catastrophic? To me it seems to go against the reddest of red lines that was drawn up right at the beginning of the process.

 

Yes but the arithmetic has changed, DUP less important than getting some labour and ex-tories on side. Also is a dose of realism, there are other bits of the May deal that look like they're biting the dust. I think this is a realisation by the government that they need a deal if they want Brexit to happen, the May deal is not Brexit in any recognizable form, so compromise is needed.

[cherdano]

I think the tell was when Jacob Rees-Mogg pronounced that Johnson would not "give away too many concessions" before the final negotiations had even started - clearly much of the opposition to May's deal was opposition to May not opposition to the deal.

 

It also makes me think I may have been too hard on the cheesebrit - this deal seems most compatible with his "let's not care whether NI splits off from the union" position.

[cherdano]

Someone should have asked the DUP to vote in this poll.

[cherdano]

On a slightly more serious note, does anyone believe Boris Johnson changed his vote in this poll a few days ago? And that the DUP seriously hadn't thought about it until yesterday? Oh sorry, it's the DUP, maybe they really hadn't thought about it until yesterday. But still, I cannot imagine this deal passing parliament, and cannot imagine Boris Johnson Dominic Cummings thinking it will. So what's the deal? Johnson and the EU made a new deal that won't pass parliament so it's the parliament's fault that there is no deal, not Johnson's or the EU's.

[Zelandakh]

On a slightly more serious note, does anyone believe Boris Johnson changed his vote in this poll a few days ago? And that the DUP seriously hadn't thought about it until yesterday? Oh sorry, it's the DUP, maybe they really hadn't thought about it until yesterday. But still, I cannot imagine this deal passing parliament, and cannot imagine Boris Johnson Dominic Cummings thinking it will. So what's the deal? Johnson and the EU made a new deal that won't pass parliament so it's the parliament's fault that there is no deal, not Johnson's or the EU's.

Is this possible? The vote fails and BJ has to send the letter, which he does along with an additional letter saying that the UK Government under no circumstances wants an extension and the attachment should be disregarded as it concerns an internal UK matter. In the unlikely event that the EU were still to accept an extension, BJ sits on the response until the end of October, at which point he resigns as PM. There is now not enough time to pass a bill cancelling Brexit. BJ has thus more or less fulfilled his requirements under the law but nonetheless managed to get a (NoDeal) Brexit through. It sort of fits with the things he has said but I am not sure how viable it is given the strictures contained within the last Brexit bill.

[cherdano]

But Johnson doesn't care about Brexit - what he wants is to win reelection and as being seen as someone who has done great things.

Also, your scenario assumes the EU wants to play along and keep their reply secret. Some in the EU might favour a no deal Brexit over continuing having to deal with internal British politics contradictions, but none of them want to be at fault for it.