Your lead

[thepossum]

Possum Sim doesnt find much difference between C,D,H leads with diamonds being very slightly higher average EW tricks but Clubs being very slightly best chance of 3+ tricks. However not really very statistically different

 

Best chance of 1+ tricks -> diamond lead

Best chance of 2+tricks -> lead heart

Best chance of 3+tricks (small) -> lead club

Best chance of 4+ tricks -> you dont have much chance

 

Average number of tricks approximately 1 irrespective of C,D,H

 

Dont lead a spade

 

 

Possums also try not to use UI when playing bridge so that was not simulated

 

They also tend to be very late to parties and try not to look at solutions before answering questions :)

[msjennifer]

Sirs.If 2C is a game force it may or may not be a long suit.Partner has bid Diamonds and appears for certain is void in Spades.His club or a heart trick can not run away .So,personally and personally only, I do not visualise any harm in leading a Diamond.My answer to the second question is NO

[KingCovert]

I have to say, I just fundamentally disagree that any diamond trick is ever going away. If it exists, that means opponents are each holding 1 diamond.

 

Now, where exactly are the pitches? The choice is clearly between diamonds and clubs, if a club lead is wrong that means partner doesn't have the Ace, but surely partner has a hand that will regain control of the hand before any pitch can be taken? And if partner doesn't, how was 5D ever a sound bid? 7 diamond tricks and what exactly?

 

I asked some of the best bridge players I know about this hand, and they all agreed that 5D was a horrible (mild overstatement) bid on this hand, it's surely worse on the non existent hand where partner doesn't get their diamond trick on a club lead.