What would you do?

[HardVector]

MPs, club game. Bidding is 2/1.

[hv=pc=n&s=sakj94hq942djt4cq&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1sp1np2hp3hp]133|200[/hv]

After partner shows a heart fit and a limit raise, what do you do?

[FelicityR]

If I were desperate for a top against mediocre opposition I might think about it at MPs, but even three looks a level too high with these cards. A trump lead is indicated on the bidding. Too many losers outside the spade suit. Twist or stick? I'm sticking. Pass.

[Cyberyeti]

You're on a guess here, as little as Qx, KJ10x, x, xxxxxx makes game good, but xx, AKxx, Qxx, Kxxx and it's not so great, at IMPs I bid game at MPs I think it's pretty close to a 50/50 call.

[msjennifer]

You're on a guess here, as little as Qx, KJ10x, x, xxxxxx makes game good, but xx, AKxx, Qxx, Kxxx and it's not so great, at IMPs I bid game at MPs I think it's pretty close to a 50/50 call.

 

Its pretty close.I shall bid game.A factor also to consider here is opponents are silent throughout.So I guess responder shall produce good 10/11.I believe he will not give an IMMEDIATE RAISE without a REALLY useful invitational hand in light of my bids. With a competitive but not invitational hand he shall PASS and then either compete or pass if opponents come in with 3 C/D.Considering his two bids the DJ10x and CQ may prove to be the keys.

[apollo1201]

Lots of bad news. A weakish H suit, a dubious CQ. And it is MPs.

 

At IMPs, I would reconsider, but it asks a lot (no wasted C a d short D + fitting H in the majors, or CK + a diamond slow stopper + they don’t lead D + good guesses in the majors) from partner.

 

The issue is p would probably bid the same with Qx AKxxx xx xxxx and xx Axxx Kxx Kxxx, as I could still have 16 of a bad 17.

 

So pass unless I’m playing against friends who need a top to qualify. And obviously no luck this time they got a bottom cuz I make!

[kenberg]

I have shown a hand with five spades, four hearts, and opening values. Partner has asked if I have more. I don't. So I pass/

[dsLawsd]

If Drury was available that failure points to passing: the plus score principle.

 

On the plus side the trump holding looks good- partner might be short in the reds or have combining cards if not.

 

So- I would look at who I am playing against to finally decide.

[pescetom]

I have shown a hand with five spades, four hearts, and opening values. Partner has asked if I have more. I don't. So I pass/

 

I don't, but I almost do.

More points than an absolute minimum, semi-solid spades, a liberal dose of of 9 and 10, a singleton.

Offset partially by wasted honours in the minors, but still worth looking hard at before passing I think.

[KingCovert]

Honestly, I was somewhat torn on this... It seems like a really solid game to me. Your partner has to hold some pretty nice cards to have a limit raise, there aren't many cards that you could consider wasted values across from your hand. Your opponents will often get the lead wrong on this hand even when double dummy it's an unmake-able. That spade suit on the side is a HUGE asset, after all, you know your partner has no more than a doubleton, and you've got AKJ.

 

So... I went and did a small scale analysis on this, because it was too tempting to pass up. I created 100 hands fixing the provided hand and randomly generating the rest of the hands assuming that our partner has 10-11, 0-2 spades, 4-5 hearts, and 3+ of each minor. The results were about as expected I'd say. Again, this assumes perfect play.

 

Making 6H: 1

Making 5H: 5

Making 4H: 16

Making 3H: 25

Making 2H: 3

 

Pass: (3x-50) + (25*140) + (16*170) + (5*200) + (1*230) = 7300

4H: (3x-100) + (25*-50) + (16*420) + (5*450) + (1*480) = 7900

 

Truly a coin toss... Although again, this assumes perfect defense. I guess the question is, how much do you respect your opponents?

[Stephen Tu]

Accepting invites when your range is 11-18 is a different proposition than when your range is 11-14. Partner is supposed to make some amount of courtesy raises to cater to you having 16+. Also since your range is wide and he has to make some courtesy raises, with the top end of his sounder technically invitational hands (that would maybe only want to invite if you were playing a strong club system or maybe Gazzilli and had a more limited hand) he is just supposed to blast game especially with 5 cd support.

 

Also, this is matchpoints which favors conservatism as long as not crazy conservative. 170 beats people who are 140 or -50 by the same margin as 420 does. Just making 10 tricks can be a good board if there is anything tricky to the play or if you need a favorable lead, without risking -50/-100 if 4 is hopeless.

[steve2005]

If Drury was available that failure points to passing: the plus score principle..

What does Drury have to do with the price of tea in China?

Is a first seat opening!

[mikeh]

Why do posters assume partner has 10-11 hip? Yes, he may, but he has to raise with weaker than that. This is a price one pays for standard bidding, as opposed to, say, big club methods. Bidding 3H as opener creates a game force, so will have 18 or more if 5=4 majors. Therefore partner has to cater to our holding as much as 17 hip.

 

This is a bad hand. We have bad, short trump, and only 3 controls. Even at imps, red, I think this is very close, but at MPs, bidding rates to generate a minus score far too often. MPs is about plus scores, not big scores. Sure, 4H could make, but so what? Most of the time it won’t.

[shyams]

Making 6H: 1

Making 5H: 5

Making 4H: 16

Making 3H: 25

Making 2H: 3

Assuming the analysis to be solid, the numbers above prove that at MPs, you are better off passing.

[msjennifer]

Sir,As regards DRURY,i personally have noted a small number who DO use it IN ALL SEATS.That apart ,I would like to know if GAZZILLI convention could possibly have made any difference.I request the experts to throw some light on it.

[dsLawsd]

What does Drury have to do with the price of tea in China?

Is a first seat opening!

 

 

My misread- since otherwise there is no real problem: either you are an overbidder or an underbidder?

But I appreciate your sarcasm. This is a Bizarro world right?

DAVE

###

[msjennifer]

Why do posters assume partner has 10-11 hip? Yes, he may, but he has to raise with weaker than that. This is a price one pays for standard bidding, as opposed to, say, big club methods. Bidding 3H as opener creates a game force, so will have 18 or more if 5=4 majors. Therefore partner has to cater to our holding as much as 17 hip.

 

This is a bad hand. We have bad, short trump, and only 3 controls. Even at imps, red, I think this is very close, but at MPs, bidding rates to generate a minus score far too often. MPs is about plus scores, not big scores. Sure, 4H could make, but so what? Most of the time it won't.

Sir ,pardon me.After reading the description of the assets of the oppening hand I personally think that opener has erred in bidding 1S .Frankly speaking then he perhaps should PASS the 1NT non forcing response as Partner has denied a spade support and he does have DJ10x and CQ which POSSIBLY be useful for NT.Or perhaps they should employ any other useful convention which caters for such maddening hands.

 

 

 

\\

[nullve]

the plus score principle.

MPs is about plus scores, not big scores.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

[maartenxq]

It is very close indeed. I consider my pass as rather timid. A lot depends on partner, opponents and the field we are playing in. If partner is a good declarer and hates to miss game I surely bid game. Same if opponents are sloppy defenders.

 

Partner can easily have 5 ♥ which improves game chances considerably. Will 3 +1 score enough. In a good field probably not. Maybe I should change my vote to close but bid on.

 

Maarten Baltussen

[PhilG007]

MPs, club game. Bidding is 2/1.

[hv=pc=n&s=sakj94hq942djt4cq&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1sp1np2hp3hp]133|200[/hv]

After partner shows a heart fit and a limit raise, what do you do?

 

Pass without any hesitation Partner's response of 1NT shows a maximum of 9 hcp which

added to yours only gives a combined total of 20-22 pts;;well short of what's needed for game.

The hand has no 'stuffing' and the singleton Q♣ might just as well be a small one.

You might already be overboard in 3[hearts As partners 1NT was a limit bid,he really should have passed

2♥ as you were simply asking for preference. Pass and hope you can make it.

[Stephen Tu]

Pass without any hesitation Partner's response of 1NT shows a maximum of 9 hcp which

added to yours only gives a combined total of 20-22 pts

System is 2/1, not stone-age Acol. 1nt in this case can have up to 12 hcp. Though after 3H probably 11 is the max.

 

I agree with the pass though.

 

[MP7601]

System is 2/1, not stone-age Acol. 1nt in this case can have up to 12 hcp. Though after 3H probably 11 is the max.

 

I agree with the pass though.

 

and even if playing Acol, a 3H courtesy raise was probably needed if having 9 hcp and a good fit, as opener could still have 16-17

 

for the opening post, I agree with pass.

[Stephen Tu]

It is very close indeed. I consider my pass as rather timid. A lot depends on partner, opponents and the field we are playing in. If partner is a good declarer and hates to miss game I surely bid game. Same if opponents are sloppy defenders.

 

Partner can easily have 5 ♥ which improves game chances considerably. Will 3 +1 score enough. In a good field probably not. Maybe I should change my vote to close but bid on.

 

Partner with 5cd hearts should bid more aggressively himself; if he is top of invite range he is supposed to bid 4 himself, to avoid pressuring us to bid game on hands like these. He has to courtesy raise on a lot of 9 counts and some 8s since we can have a 16-18 point hand. So if he has 5cds he should be at the lower end of his possible HCP range.

 

If you are a good declarer relative to field, or opponents bad defenders relative to field, *you don't actually have to bid the game to gain most of the benefits of making 10 tricks* on close hands. Say 13 pairs, only top 4 capable of making it, and two of those 4 actually bid it, you being one of them. Bidding game in this case only gained you 1.5 MP, you get 11.5 rather than 10. If game turns out hopeless though, and say 6 pairs are bidding game, now you get 2.5 MP instead of 8.5, a loss of 6. So if it's close to 50-50 whether it makes, you lose a lot of MP in the long run, since you are losing 6 when wrong and only gaining 1.5 when right.

 

 

You only need to bid game when most of the field is bidding AND making game.

[dB451]

I prefer to play a Losing Trick Count/Cover Card game (as opposed to both sides thinking in terms of LTC); given that, this is a very straight-forward hand. Opener is assumed to have a 7-loser hand. When responder invites with 3H, they are showing three cover cards, or the ability to take three tricks in the context of the auction. Yes, like a full LTC approach, these considerations are predicated on having a fit, but that's been established. So, opener, hearing their partner say they have three tricks for them, can easily pass, since they have no better than a 7-loser hand, and partner said they can only cover three of those losers, hence 4 losers remain, so stay out of game. What's a trick? An top honor (A, K, or Q) in partner's suit, an outside A, K (with a K being more like 3/4 of a trick), an outside KQ or even QJ, honors in other of partner's bid suits, or two more trumps than any shortness - for example, with a stiff (singleton) and three trumps, that's 1 cover card; three trumps and a doubleton does not, repeat not, provide a cover card, but four trumps and a doubleton can be counted as a cover card, and four trumps and a stiff may be two cover cards. Given that context, a statistically sounder basis for decisions is provided, within the context of a known fit. So, here, on this hand, the decision couldn't be easier, given any reasonable degree of discipline. So, that's my $0.02.

[Cyberyeti]

I prefer to play a Losing Trick Count/Cover Card game (as opposed to both sides thinking in terms of LTC); given that, this is a very straight-forward hand. Opener is assumed to have a 7-loser hand. When responder invites with 3H, they are showing three cover cards, or the ability to take three tricks in the context of the auction. Yes, like a full LTC approach, these considerations are predicated on having a fit, but that's been established. So, opener, hearing their partner say they have three tricks for them, can easily pass, since they have no better than a 7-loser hand, and partner said they can only cover three of those losers, hence 4 losers remain, so stay out of game. What's a trick? An top honor (A, K, or Q) in partner's suit, an outside A, K (with a K being more like 3/4 of a trick), an outside KQ or even QJ, honors in other of partner's bid suits, or two more trumps than any shortness - for example, with a stiff (singleton) and three trumps, that's 1 cover card; three trumps and a doubleton does not, repeat not, provide a cover card, but four trumps and a doubleton can be counted as a cover card, and four trumps and a stiff may be two cover cards. Given that context, a statistically sounder basis for decisions is provided, within the context of a known fit. So, here, on this hand, the decision couldn't be easier, given any reasonable degree of discipline. So, that's my $0.02.

 

Are you really expecting partner to bid game with Qx, AKxx, xx, xxxxx ? yes it's 4 cover cards, but it's a terrible 4, could he be blamed for only bidding 3, it's probably a disaster if you also have a doubleton diamond.

[HardVector]

Thanks for the responses.