Play problem - which line is better?

[zenbiddist]

[hv=pc=n&s=sjha542da42ckj853&n=sak762hq8d53cat97&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=3dpp3sp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

You're playing teams.

 

West leads ♦6, which East covers with the ♦7. You have six top tricks.

If you duck, East plays back ♦K, and West shows out. If you duck again, East plays ♦Q and West shells a heart (but their signalling is essentially non-existent).

 

What's your line?

A) play LHO for the ♣Q (maybe starting with ♣K and unblock ♣9 from dummy)

B) play a club to the ♣A and cover on the way back (presuming RHO follows to the second round), hoping ♥K is onside if you lose to ♣Qx.

C) play two top clubs, falling back on ♥K onside

D) other (what do you think is best?)

[Stephen Tu]

Let's see:Plan A: 77.45% given the diamond split situation.

Plan B: 35.29 you get 5 club tricks. 16.18 clubs are 2-2, Q wrong, 10/14 HK is right, So +11.56. 32.35% clubs are 3-1, 9/14 HK is right, so +20.80. About 67.65%.Plan A > plan B

Plan C: 45.59% you get 5 club tricks (you have to cash ace first instead of K on this line, which is much worse on the 4-0, RHO being way more likely void. But on the 3-1s you need to be in hand on the 2nd club to lead a low heart to Q, otherwise you get blocked). +20.80 for clubs 3-1 HK onside. About 66.39. Again plan A better.