When will Brexit Happen

[kenberg]

https://youtu.be/oQUAaTeIJTw

 

Irish PM Leo Varadkar talking about Brexit.

 

The headline is click-bait and I would suggest you discount it. Why the video matters is around minute 9 when he says how a "no deal" Brexit will have many of the features of the May deal

 

What struck me most was what a pleasure it was to listen to him. A thoughtful guy treating questions with respect. What an idea.

[hrothgar]

European law trumps British law, and there have been a load of judgements where the Euro judges have interpreted the law in ways even the people who made them have said are not what was was intended. There is a feeling they are trying to make law rather than just interpret it.

 

Freedom of movement is something people dislike for differing reasons.

 

If you're of Indian descent, any old Eastern European can freely come here to work but your (more skilled) relatives can't. It's not even handed.

 

In some areas of the UK, there is an issue with higher calibre Eastern European job applicants taking jobs for which they are well overqualified but say earn more here waiting tables here than they would doing a more skilled job at home. This causes resentment among the locals who would have done those jobs.

 

Particular types of crime are associated with certain groups. A senior policeman said that 90% of ATM crime was perpetrated by Romanians. Pickpocketing in London is supposedly disproportionately Eastern European.

 

Here's the thing: The same laws that let all you Brits live, work, and retire in Europe, use the the medical system over there, and the like and the ones that grant the same rights to Europeans...

 

Your problem is that you want all the benefits with any of the reciprocity agreements and you're just not going to get any of that...

[Cyberyeti]

Here's the thing: The same laws that let all you Brits live, work, and retire in Europe, use the the medical system over there, and the like and the ones that grant the same rights to Europeans...

 

Your problem is that you want all the benefits with any of the reciprocity agreements and you're just not going to get any of that...

 

Not true at all.

 

The medical system reciprocity I expect to be duplicated in some way.

 

Retiring in Europe is beneficial to both countries, the Spanish economy would be much worse off without the Brits, and the Brits are healthier for living in a better climate.

 

It's only the work, and that I don't expect to be duplicated for unskilled workers, although I expect something to be put in place for skilled workers.

[shyams]

I am quite confident that in the unlikely event of a second referendum ("People's Vote"), it is only the youth of this country who will save the country from the disaster that is Brexit. If the younger population decide to take it easy and not turn up at the polling booths, then Remain will lose the vote again.

 

I have also discovered that facts don't matter in these discussions. And I have, for a while now, refrained from disabusing the Brexiters of their views. Let us be a bit more masochistic, all of us.

 

(the Brexit bit begins at 2:10)

[Cyberyeti]

I am quite confident that in the unlikely event of a second referendum ("People's Vote"), it is only the youth of this country who will save the country from the disaster that is Brexit. If the younger population decide to take it easy and not turn up at the polling booths, then Remain will lose the vote again.

 

 

Brexit as a concept is fine, Brexit as put forward by May is a mess, and no deal now an even bigger one.

 

The EU is a cess pit of waste and corruption (yes I do have several concrete examples, including one where a deal somebody I know very well was trying to do failed because he wouldn't put a 6 figure amount of EU cash into a politician's wife's back pocket).

 

The EU has done what they always do, not negociate at all and wait for the country to vote again to remain.

 

And I agree with you, if given a second vote, the votes of the young will be critical

[Al_U_Card]

Not true at all.

 

The medical system reciprocity I expect to be duplicated in some way.

 

Retiring in Europe is beneficial to both countries, the Spanish economy would be much worse off without the Brits, and the Brits are healthier for living in a better climate.

 

It's only the work, and that I don't expect to be duplicated for unskilled workers, although I expect something to be put in place for skilled workers.

While on the Costa del Sol last month, I spoke to several British ex-pats who expressed support for Brexit but anxiety toward their eventual "status". There have always been ex-pats so I doubt their futures are in great peril.

[Cyberyeti]

While on the Costa del Sol last month, I spoke to several British ex-pats who expressed support for Brexit but anxiety toward their eventual "status". There have always been ex-pats so I doubt their futures are in great peril.

 

No, they spend money in Spain and own property there, if they all shipped out the property market would disintegrate and a lot of jobs would disappear. We owned a place in Spain for a long time and my late grandparents retired there, so I know well how some of the coastal towns work.

[Winstonm]

Brexit as a concept is fine, Brexit as put forward by May is a mess, and no deal now an even bigger one.

 

The EU is a cess pit of waste and corruption (yes I do have several concrete examples, including one where a deal somebody I know very well was trying to do failed because he wouldn't put a 6 figure amount of EU cash into a politician's wife's back pocket).

 

The EU has done what they always do, not negociate at all and wait for the country to vote again to remain.

 

And I agree with you, if given a second vote, the votes of the young will be critical

 

To my ear and as analogy, those who support Brexit sound quite similar to the U.S. secessionists prior to our Civil War. There appears to be a fundamental psychological reason that drives both camps to hold alternative worldviews. If the goal is peace and stability, this divide seems problematic.

[Cyberyeti]

To my ear and as analogy, those who support Brexit sound quite similar to the U.S. secessionists prior to our Civil War. There appears to be a fundamental psychological reason that drives both camps to hold alternative worldviews. If the goal is peace and stability, this divide seems problematic.

 

Among some yes, I was not always a Brexiteer, I thought it was such a close call I never revealed how I voted and resolved to back whichever side won.

 

I think I said upthread that Brexiteers fall into several camps, there are a surprising number of very well educated well informed Brexiteers that the remainers don't want you to believe exist.

 

The guy who I trust on this is an old university friend who should be the prototype remainer. Portuguese, married to a Pole, family were left wing academics who fled to the UK to avoid persecution in the military coup, multiple economics degrees, worked all over the world in finance, son worked as an intern at the European parliament, most ardent Brexiteer I know. He predicted May would be a disaster before she became leader and pretty much exactly correctly why.

[fromageGB]

I believe there are some very well educated and well informed remainers, as well.

[Cyberyeti]

I believe there are some very well educated and well informed remainers, as well.

 

Yes but even they seem to portray all Brexiteers as racist morons, and while most racist morons are Brexiteers, they're a small fraction of Brexiteers.

[cherdano]

It should but the EU won't allow it because integral to the single market are things like freedom of movement which many Brits don't want (actually for a variety of reasons, many see no reason why Eastern Europeans are favoured over South Asians with whom a sizable number of people here have ties) and also our courts being overruled by the European ones.

Ok, if you want to be as close to being in the single market without being forced to give up on your xenophobia towards Eastern Europeans, why not a customs union? The backstop is to large extent a customs union; so the May government succeeded in obtaining one without consenting to free movement.

[Cyberyeti]

Ok, if you want to be as close to being in the single market without being forced to give up on your xenophobia towards Eastern Europeans, why not a customs union? The backstop is to large extent a customs union; so the May government succeeded in obtaining one without consenting to free movement.

 

Can't negociate our own trade deals if we have a customs union so negates many of the benefits of Brexit, this was one of the key things most Brexiteers wanted.

[cherdano]

Can't negociate our own trade deals if we have a customs union so negates many of the benefits of Brexit, this was one of the key things most Brexiteers wanted.

Oh ok, so the UK *did* change its mind about wanting to be in the common market then? (Customs union makes it necessary to jointly negotiate trade deals, pretty much by definition.)

[Cyberyeti]

Oh ok, so the UK *did* change its mind about wanting to be in the common market then? (Customs union makes it necessary to jointly negotiate trade deals, pretty much by definition.)

 

I think if there had not been the prospect of ever closer political union and it had only EVER been a common market, we would still want to be in it. The other problem is that over the years the EU appears to have got ever more protectionist, particularly on things like oranges/orange juice to protect the Spanish against African imports. I believe OJ got an increase from 3.2% to 16% relatively recently (2016?) meaning we have to pay more.

[fromageGB]

One of the problems with a common market is that it needs to serve its members' interests, and that means the size should be limited to an area of similar countries. When UK joined the Common Market, it was West Germany, France, Italy, and Benelux that we joined, France formerly not wanting us in. Ireland and Denmark came in at the same time, and you could say it was pretty homogeneous. By the time it gets Portugal, Spain, and Greece, and then seemingly the whole of Europe, it could be argued that it is too big for purpose, and each country's objectives and needs are too dissimilar to be served by the same customs arrangements. If it was purely a common tariff area right now, without any political overtones, I would probably still prefer to make separate arrangements.

 

However, I admit that for me this is not the main purpose of Brexit, but being able to make sovereign laws is. A number of times decisions made in our highest court and parliament have been overruled by Europe, and this is while trying to keep within those constraints, and following our laws which are largely created by the EU. However, the last few years has caused me to lose much faith in our country's management ability, and I was hoping independence would bring about a revival.

[fromageGB]

Now that Raab has thrown his hat in the ring, I hope he gets the leadership if and when May gives up.

Nope. Rescinded. Having already voted twice against the botched May deal as being "worse than staying in", he on the third time of asking the same thing has voted for it. There's integrity for you.

[Winstonm]

One of the problems with a common market is that it needs to serve its members' interests, and that means the size should be limited to an area of similar countries. When UK joined the Common Market, it was West Germany, France, Italy, and Benelux that we joined, France formerly not wanting us in. Ireland and Denmark came in at the same time, and you could say it was pretty homogeneous. By the time it gets Portugal, Spain, and Greece, and then seemingly the whole of Europe, it could be argued that it is too big for purpose, and each country's objectives and needs are too dissimilar to be served by the same customs arrangements. If it was purely a common tariff area right now, without any political overtones, I would probably still prefer to make separate arrangements.

 

However, I admit that for me this is not the main purpose of Brexit, but being able to make sovereign laws is. A number of times decisions made in our highest court and parliament have been overruled by Europe, and this is while trying to keep within those constraints, and following our laws which are largely created by the EU. However, the last few years has caused me to lose much faith in our country's management ability, and I was hoping independence would bring about a revival.

 

A question from an interested but ignorant third party, if you please. I don't understand the place of the EU judicial body. Does that judiciary rule on whether or not a country's law is in accord with the values expressed by the EU?

 

If so, what parts of the EU charter are distasteful? Reading them, they seem fine.

[Cyberyeti]

A question from an interested but ignorant third party, if you please. I don't understand the place of the EU judicial body. Does that judiciary rule on whether or not a country's law is in accord with the values expressed by the EU?

 

If so, what parts of the EU charter are distasteful? Reading them, they seem fine.

 

You can appeal a decision of the nation's highest court to the European court, and some of the judgments it comes up with are extremely odd

[Cyberyeti]

Nope. Rescinded. Having already voted twice against the botched May deal as being "worse than staying in", he on the third time of asking the same thing has voted for it. There's integrity for you.

 

I think he decided that Brexit wasn't going to happen without him switching, and "worse than staying in" changed when it became apparent May would be stepping down and they could have a Brexiteer negociating from here.

 

I don't often agree with Yanis Varoufakis, but his withering takedown of what May did in negociations was spot on. Shame she didn't listen to him at the start of the process when he correctly explained exactly what the EU would do.

[thepossum]

It's a bit hard for anyone to blame May for anything. She is trying to do the impossible.

 

Blame the incompetence of Cameron who failed to put in place a sensible referendum process, self interested and xenophobic lies by the brexiteers such as Johnson Rees-Mogg and Farage , apathy by Corbyn and Labour, apathy by young voters who did not believe that older voters would sell them out, lack of concern for the well being of Ireland and Scotland. It was a total failure of leadership and democracy, an outcome the majority did not want. May is trying to do the impossible.

 

Having said that, while I hope Brexit does not happen, the EU has become a bloated expensive bureaucracy of fat cat bureaucrats imposing their will on sovereign member states and economies. It needs serious reform. It causes massive damage on member states economies and cultures despite the good things that come out of greater economic and political cooperation.

[Cyberyeti]

It's a bit hard for anyone to blame May for anything. She is trying to do the impossible.

 

Blame the incompetence of Cameron who failed to put in place a sensible referendum process, self interested and xenophobic lies by the brexiteers such as Johnson Rees-Mogg and Farage , apathy by Corbyn and Labour, apathy by young voters who did not believe that older voters would sell them out, lack of concern for the well being of Ireland and Scotland. It was a total failure of leadership and democracy, an outcome the majority did not want. May is trying to do the impossible.

 

Having said that, while I hope Brexit does not happen, the EU has become a bloated expensive bureaucracy of fat cat bureaucrats imposing their will on sovereign member states and economies. It needs serious reform. It causes massive damage on member states economies and cultures despite the good things that come out of greater economic and political cooperation.

 

It's very easy to blame May, she blew the negociations in the first few weeks by:

 

Listening only to her coterie of remainer yes-men

Giving away ANY leverage we had way too early

Allowing the EU to get away with giving basically nothing

 

Varoufakis told her what the EU would do before they did it and she didn't listen to him or anybody else.

 

Cameron's real crime was not thinking remain could possibly lose so he screwed up the consequences of it doing so. Corbyn has always been anti-EU but is leading a remainer party so has serious problems on this.

[thepossum]

Whatever it is Cyberyeti, maybe we can all agree it has been 3 years of failed leadership and demo cratic process by Westminster to look after the well being and interests of all the people in different parts of the UK

 

May has been the one in the hot seat and is still the best bet of getting parliament to stand up, show some leadership and act in the interests of the people. Nobody else has helped. Corbyn just plays party politics. The extremist Brexiteers just care about themselves. It's been three years and still Westminster can't get its act together

[Winstonm]

From outside the situation, it appears (at least to me) that the basis of Brexit support lies in immigration complaints - is that part of freedom of movement in the EU?

[Cyberyeti]

From outside the situation, it appears (at least to me) that the basis of Brexit support lies in immigration complaints - is that part of freedom of movement in the EU?

 

No, nothing to do with it.

 

Britain has its own reasons which I outlined upthread.

 

Immigration is fairly minor although does register.

 

The total lack of enthusiasm for political union is in many ways much more important, and discontent with the way that the politicians are out of touch with the people. Remember we fought for 6 years to avoid political union with Germany, some people have long inherited memories.