When will Brexit Happen

[Vampyr]

Well no single market I felt was a given. Whatever people voted for in the referendum, most agreed they wanted an end to freedom of movement, so that necessarily means no single market.

 

The Irish border has no solution atm. What I'd have done if I'd been Theresa May would have been to get Arlene Foster in a room very early on, and say to her, you want Brexit, you want no hard border, you want no border down the Irish Sea. Brexit needs no single market. What do YOU suggest, because at the moment you're asking for rainbow sh£$%ing unicorns. You need to compromise on something.

 

Well, a solution comes to mind, but the DUP would accept that when hell freezes over.

[cherdano]

the 538 podcast had a couple folks on late last week discussing Brexit

 

They noted that part of what is making this all enormously complicated is that remain / lean doesn't break upon traditional party boundaries, so polling, elections, and confidence votes all become a lot more complicated

 

The other issue is that the map of parliamentary districts has a Brexit lean, i.e. there are some urban areas with an extremely high percentage of anti-Brexit votes, but a majority of districts has a Brexit majority.

[Cyberyeti]

 

Anyway, my point was more about the case for a general election. Whether it is 48% or 56% who are pro-remain, the vast majority of them will be voting for MPs who are either pro-Brexit, or who will be wipped to vote pro Brexit, in some cases even pro a hard Brexit.

 

No they won't, and this is part of the problem, there are a huge number of pro-remain MPs representing pro-Brexit constituencies (Anna Soubry being an obvious example whose constituency was 55-45 pro Brexit, Nick Boles represents a hugely pro-Brexit constituency).

[fromageGB]

No they won't, and this is part of the problem, there are a huge number of pro-remain MPs representing pro-Brexit constituencies (Anna Soubry being an obvious example whose constituency was 55-45 pro Brexit, Nick Boles represents a hugely pro-Brexit constituency).

And the only way the Conservative party can respond to that if they want to survive is to get rid of them (if they have not already left).

[Cyberyeti]

And the only way the Conservative party can respond to that if they want to survive is to get rid of them (if they have not already left).

 

Yup, Soubry has gone from the Tories, Boles is an odd one, he's no longer a member of his local party, but still in the national party.

[Cyberyeti]

Interesting poll today 46% would prefer leaving with no deal to delaying Brexit, 40% against. Comres for the Telegraph.

[kenberg]

Interesting poll today 46% would prefer leaving with no deal to delaying Brexit, 40% against. Comres for the Telegraph.

 

 

Do they say, or do you have any idea, of just how they are coming to this? I can see two possibilities: Maybe they really just want a no-deal exit, maybe they figure that a delay won't do anything good so might as well bite the bullet and get on with it. Often the trouble with polls is they don't really get to the reasons. In this case it might not distinguish between enthusiasm for no deal or just giving up on finding any alternative. My understanding is that a no deal exit will be a serious disaster so that suggests they are just giving up, but of course I don't know.

[Vampyr]

The other issue is that the map of parliamentary districts has a Brexit lean, i.e. there are some urban areas with an extremely high percentage of anti-Brexit votes, but a majority of districts has a Brexit majority.

Reminiscent of a certain (other) election three years ago...

[Cyberyeti]

Do they say, or do you have any idea, of just how they are coming to this? I can see two possibilities: Maybe they really just want a no-deal exit, maybe they figure that a delay won't do anything good so might as well bite the bullet and get on with it. Often the trouble with polls is they don't really get to the reasons. In this case it might not distinguish between enthusiasm for no deal or just giving up on finding any alternative. My understanding is that a no deal exit will be a serious disaster so that suggests they are just giving up, but of course I don't know.

 

A number of business people and their workers were saying that bad as no deal is, the uncertainty is worse and we'll haemorrhage jobs to Europe in the interim.

[Cyberyeti]

Reminiscent of a certain election three years ago...

 

Not sure if you mean what I understand the situation to be. The Conservatives never managed to undo 13 years of Labour gerrymandering. Had the shares of the popular vote been the reversed in the last election, Labour would have had a huge majority.

 

But yes the district map of that election is striking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Vote_share_percentage_for_individual_constituencies..png

[Vampyr]

Not sure if you mean what I understand the situation to be. The Conservatives never managed to undo 13 years of Labour gerrymandering. Had the shares of the popular vote been the reversed in the last election, Labour would have had a huge majority.

 

But yes the district map of that election is striking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Vote_share_percentage_for_individual_constituencies..png

 

LOL I was thinking about another election, also three years ago. Democrats/Labour often self-gerrymander. Where do people who are into food, fashion, the creative culture, technology etc live? In cities. In the US getting 90% in one district counts the same as 50.0001 in another district.

[fromageGB]

My understanding is that a no deal exit will be a serious disaster so that suggests they are just giving up, but of course I don't know.

You get that impression because the BBC, the civil service, and others that have a beneficiary interest in the EU or have pro-EU biases deliberately present it as such, and there is no defined "post-brexit" scenario that can be pointed to confidently by those who prefer independence. It is uncharted waters, and future relationships cannot be defined because it is "by future agreement". As the prime purpose of the EU commission is to expand its empire of "big government", it is of course refusing to assist in breaking it up. However, once UK has declared UDI, it is in the self-interests of states to cooperate with each other.

 

It is not "giving up" anything than the yoke of repression, but there will inevitably be short term turmoil if it happens. This is why it would have been sensible to say two years ago that "we will leave and make our own laws, regulations and trade agreements in two years" and then those two years could have been spent organising the future. Or fewer than two years, of course.

 

The colony of America declared UDI some years back, and has since recovered. Southern Rhodesia declared UDI more recently and has not recovered. There are no guarantees, but I believe UK UDI will not be a disaster.

[kenberg]

Thanks to both Cyber and Fromage for the responses. As mentioned, I don't know enough to really get into this but the two responses illustrate my thoughts about polls. Two very different reasons are cited for favoring exit without agreement. However this goes, best wishes for having it work out well.

[hrothgar]

 

The colony of America declared UDI some years back, and has since recovered. Southern Rhodesia declared UDI more recently and has not recovered. There are no guarantees, but I believe UK UDI will not be a disaster.

 

The colony of America had trading partners

The colony of Rhodesia did not

 

Like it or not, the UK is incredible dependent on trade with the EU and the US.

It currently has a pretty sweet deal that was negotiated over decades.

 

If you try to go things alone, you simply don't have enough clout for anyone to help you out...

[Cyberyeti]

The colony of America had trading partners

The colony of Rhodesia did not

 

Like it or not, the UK is incredible dependent on trade with the EU and the US.

It currently has a pretty sweet deal that was negotiated over decades.

 

If you try to go things alone, you simply don't have enough clout for anyone to help you out...

 

Rhodesia did, unfortunately Mugabe took away the white farmers land and handed it out to his militia who had no clue what to do with it so most of their exports vanished.

 

UK is dependent on trade with Europe BUT if trade gets screwed some European industries (particularly influential ones like German cars) will not want their governments to put huge tariff barriers up.

 

It had a really sweet deal till Blair gave away most of the rebate.

[Winstonm]

You get that impression because the BBC, the civil service, and others that have a beneficiary interest in the EU or have pro-EU biases deliberately present it as such, and there is no defined "post-brexit" scenario that can be pointed to confidently by those who prefer independence. It is uncharted waters, and future relationships cannot be defined because it is "by future agreement". As the prime purpose of the EU commission is to expand its empire of "big government", it is of course refusing to assist in breaking it up. However, once UK has declared UDI, it is in the self-interests of states to cooperate with each other.

 

It is not "giving up" anything than the yoke of repression, but there will inevitably be short term turmoil if it happens. This is why it would have been sensible to say two years ago that "we will leave and make our own laws, regulations and trade agreements in two years" and then those two years could have been spent organising the future. Or fewer than two years, of course.

 

The colony of America declared UDI some years back, and has since recovered. Southern Rhodesia declared UDI more recently and has not recovered. There are no guarantees, but I believe UK UDI will not be a disaster.

 

First off, understand that I claim almost complete ignorance of this situation. That said, didn't the U.K. enter into the EU voluntarily? If so, how can that voluntary membership be termed a "yoke of repression"?

 

Futhermore, isn't it more likely that working in unison with other countries will provide a greater good than reliance on single-minded proclivities?

 

Feel free to disagree, but I would hope you can explain how independent decision making produces a better result than mutually beneficial decision-making. Frankly, to me it sounds reliance on the fictional results invented by Ayn Rand.

[Cyberyeti]

First off, understand that I claim almost complete ignorance of this situation. That said, didn't the U.K. enter into the EU voluntarily? If so, how can that voluntary membership be termed a "yoke of repression"?

 

Futhermore, isn't it more likely that working in unison with other countries will provide a greater good than reliance on single-minded proclivities?

 

Feel free to disagree, but I would hope you can explain how independent decision making produces a better result than mutually beneficial decision-making. Frankly, to me it sounds reliance on the fictional results invented by Ayn Rand.

 

The UK freely entered a common market.

 

Other European countries are trying to make this much more of a political union which many in the UK REALLY don't want.

 

Basically the UK's position hasn't changed and it's Europe that's moved.

[fromageGB]

Basically the UK's position hasn't changed and it's Europe that's moved.

A classic case of continental drift.

 

@Winstonm :

 

The repression is not in the form of compulsory membership (in the current format, though membership would be compulsory with no escape in the prime minister's plan), but in the form of laws which are invented in the EU commission and have to be adopted by member states with no choice in the matter. Restrictions too are a form of repression.

 

You have hit the nail on the head with "mutually beneficial decision making". This is what I would like, and this is exactly what independence can give : one state enters agreements with another that are mutually beneficial, because otherwise they would not have that agreement. Decisions are made in the EU that impact us, and where we have not previously (years ago) agreed an exemption, we must obey. We (some of us) were happy to work in unison to the end product that was then. Subsequently the product evolves in ways "we" disagree with, and having made a foolish decision to adopt in advance whatever unknown and unthought of rules the EU would come up with in the future, and having a higher court outside the country be the final arbiter of domestic decisions, we are now suffering. I call this a yoke.

[cherdano]

The UK freely entered a common market.

 

Other European countries are trying to make this much more of a political union which many in the UK REALLY don't want.

 

Basically the UK's position hasn't changed and it's Europe that's moved.

In that case, shouldn't the goal be to exit the EU while staying in the common market?

[Cyberyeti]

In that case, shouldn't the goal be to exit the EU while staying in the common market?

 

It should but the EU won't allow it because integral to the single market are things like freedom of movement which many Brits don't want (actually for a variety of reasons, many see no reason why Eastern Europeans are favoured over South Asians with whom a sizable number of people here have ties) and also our courts being overruled by the European ones.

[Winstonm]

It should but the EU won't allow it because integral to the single market are things like freedom of movement which many Brits don't want (actually for a variety of reasons, many see no reason why Eastern Europeans are favoured over South Asians with whom a sizable number of people here have ties) and also our courts being overruled by the European ones.

 

Two questions:

 

What about freedom of movement is distasteful?

Do European courts change British law or is the complaint that many in Britain don't like legitimate court decisions?

[Cyberyeti]

Two questions:

 

What about freedom of movement is distasteful?

Do European courts change British law or is the complaint that many in Britain don't like legitimate court decisions?

 

European law trumps British law, and there have been a load of judgements where the Euro judges have interpreted the law in ways even the people who made them have said are not what was was intended. There is a feeling they are trying to make law rather than just interpret it.

 

Freedom of movement is something people dislike for differing reasons.

 

If you're of Indian descent, any old Eastern European can freely come here to work but your (more skilled) relatives can't. It's not even handed.

 

In some areas of the UK, there is an issue with higher calibre Eastern European job applicants taking jobs for which they are well overqualified but say earn more here waiting tables here than they would doing a more skilled job at home. This causes resentment among the locals who would have done those jobs.

 

Particular types of crime are associated with certain groups. A senior policeman said that 90% of ATM crime was perpetrated by Romanians. Pickpocketing in London is supposedly disproportionately Eastern European.

[Winstonm]

European law trumps British law, and there have been a load of judgements where the Euro judges have interpreted the law in ways even the people who made them have said are not what was was intended. There is a feeling they are trying to make law rather than just interpret it.

 

Freedom of movement is something people dislike for differing reasons.

 

If you're of Indian descent, any old Eastern European can freely come here to work but your (more skilled) relatives can't. It's not even handed.

 

In some areas of the UK, there is an issue with higher calibre Eastern European job applicants taking jobs for which they are well overqualified but say earn more here waiting tables here than they would doing a more skilled job at home. This causes resentment among the locals who would have done those jobs.

 

Particular types of crime are associated with certain groups. A senior policeman said that 90% of ATM crime was perpetrated by Romanians. Pickpocketing in London is supposedly disproportionately Eastern European.

 

Reading this reminds me quite strongly of the types of complaints from the U.S. populists who elected Trump.

[Cyberyeti]

Reading this reminds me quite strongly of the types of complaints from the U.S. populists who elected Trump.

 

the last 2 reasons yes, but being forced to take any immigrant from Europe ahead of people from the Commonwealth is a problem that I don't think is as much of an issue in any of the other European former colonial powers.

[shyams]

https://youtu.be/oQUAaTeIJTw

 

Irish PM Leo Varadkar talking about Brexit.

 

The headline is click-bait and I would suggest you discount it. Why the video matters is around minute 9 when he says how a "no deal" Brexit will have many of the features of the May deal