Lucky lead

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakj765hat854da5c&n=s984hkq72dt74c973&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=2C(BAL or 8+PT)P2D(REL)P2S(5+S 8+PT)P3S(NAT F1)P4C(CUE)P4H(CUE)P5D(CUE)P5SP6SPPP&P=STS4S2SJSAC2S8S3SKC4S9SQ]266|200|

Latest stupidity :(

In a local league match (aggregate) -- about 3 hours ago.

Against 6♠ by South, LHO leads ♠T won by ♠J.

On declarer's ♠AK76

-- LHO discards ♣2 ♣5 ♣4 ♦2.

-- RHO follows twice then discards ♣8 ♦6

UDCA

What now?[/hv]

[ahydra]

Essentially you have to tell if hearts are breaking or not. West did have the short spades, and play the C5 then the C4 possibly suit-preference high. Perhaps he holds e.g. T J963 Q982 K542, where even a singleton trump lead looks the most appealing of that ugly lot. But it's far from clear, as something like T J93 Q982 KJ542 would have the same lead issue and likely discard the same way.

 

You can actually pick up J963 with W thanks to the power of the 5 and the 4 :). Lead the 8, if 9 then K (East shows out), DA and then run the 5. And hell, this can't go wrong if East has them either, as W will show out when you lead the 8. The challenge is backing your judgement / guess if you lead the 8 and W follows small. I'm not sure I would (unless playing for a swing, perhaps).

 

ahydra

[HardVector]

You are only worried about a 4-0 heart break. I will be shocked if west had a singleton spade and a void in hearts, so I'd cater to east having the void.

[rmnka447]

When at trick 2 you find that LHO had only 1 trump and RHO had 3, LHO has 12 vacant places and RHO only 10. So the odds (12/10) favor LHO having 4 ♥, if anyone does.