Bidding over preempts

[Winstonm]

[hv=d=n&v=e&s=sa53ha7643dkcakj2]133|100|Two different auctions: North deals and passes.

P-2S-?

P-3S-?

Questions: 1)What is your call over each auction. 2) How does the form of scoring between MPs and imps influence your call. 3) At either form of scoring, what are your thoughts on taking the almost sure plus score with a BIG pass?

4) Is pass actually that big of risk with this hand?

 

Thanks in advance.

[/hv]

[hrothgar]

First things first: To me, this looks like a NT oriented hand. I have an anemic heart suit and am worried about declaring a ♥ contract with the potential for bad splits. I know that the Aces and Kings suggest suit play, but I have a bad feeling about 4M...

 

After a 3♠ opening, I'm going to bid 3NT. Holdidng the Axx, I can hold up on Spades twice.. Something should work out...

 

After a 2♠ opening, I'm going to start with a double...

 

If partner can bid 3♦ directly, then 3NT looks good.

If partner bids 2NT (Lebensohl) followed by 3♦, I'll need to hope that my King pulls its weight

[mike777]

Agree.

[luke warm]

whew, this is a tough one... partner didn't have an opening, rho preempted... any strength is likely on my left (unless pard has it, and he should have some)

 

is pard likely to reopen, assuming lho passes? i doubt it... anyway, at imps i'm passing both... at matchpoints, i bid as richard and mike

[Fluffy]

Tough and ugly hand, I think the 3NT bid over 3♠ is clear.

 

But after 2♠ I don't feel so good, I really hate all the alternatives, my partners tend to bid 5♦ after my double, 2NT is an underbid, 3♥ is way too weak of a suit, 3NT is not the hand at all, 4♣ gets over 3NT but... I like it.

 

4♣

3NT

2NT

double

pass

3♥

 

I would rate in that order, ,but note that my agreements are always that doubles have the right strructure 95% of the times or more.

[whereagles]

Indeed a rather annoying hand to bid.

 

In these cases the most important question is "Do I have to bid NOW?" Probably. Pard is short in spades, but he won't make a move unless he has a good 9-10 points, and even then it's not certain he'll have the guts to do it. Pass is very attractive, but, since game is likely even opposite a decent 5-6 points, you HAVE to bid.

 

I'm going to try bidding hearts on grounds a pard short in spades should have a couple of hearts.

 

So...

 

pass 2S X, followed by 3H

pass 3S 4H

 

Puts eggs all in one basket, but it SEEMS a better basket than 3NT to me.

[civill]

1,Michaels;5H+4C;

2,dbl,to my PD;

[joker_gib]

3NT on 3♠ no alternative :)

 

Dbl on 2♠ if partner bid 5♦ I'll live with it :blink:

 

Alain

[Guest Jlall]

I'll violate Hamman's rule and X over 3S. 3N just feels wrong. Xing and bidding hearts over 4D would suggest clubs and is more flexible. If pard bids pass/3N/4C/4H/5C those are all really good, if he bids 4D then we should be in OK shape as long as 3N wasnt our last making game. If pard bids 5D over my X i have an awful problem :lol:

 

Over 2S X seems obvious now

[Winstonm]

A few thoughts on this problem - btw, I didn't pass either - that make me still wonder if pass is at least as good an answer as bidding, especially over 3S.

 

1) Partner has already passed.

2) RHO has preempted vul. vs nv, a usual sign of full values.

3) I hold a lot of high cards but a 6-loser hand. That's a lot of cover cards for partner to hold as a passed hand in this auction.

4) With my 19 added to RHO's on average of 9, there are only 12 HCPs out and mathematically they would be divided 6/6.

5) If partner does indeed hold 6, then it is highly unlikely that he holds enough cover cards to produce game in any strain other than hearts.

6) I don't hold the trick-taking potential for 3N if spades are stopped only once.

7) Due to the vulnerable vs NV preempt, RHO rates to have a side entry.

8) The levels are high enough for me to easily get doubled if I am wrong and RHO has made a very descriptive bid which allows LHO to make a more accurate decision.

9) A high probabilty exists that I will gain 100-200 by passing verses an expected gain of only 400-420 by bidding. Not a huge loss at imps. If I am wrong, then I could lose 500-800 against nothing on for the opponents.

10) At MPs, I think it gets down to a simple matter of frequency: how often will I go plus in each case.

 

It would be interesting to run some simulations and see what the frequency is on these cards.

 

winstonm

[Winstonm]

Interesting note: I ran a simulation on an 8-card heart fit with a known 6/7 card spade suit on the right. Results: with a known 6-card suit, the chances of a 4-1 or 5-0 heart break on the left increase to 40.5%. With a 7-card suit, the chances increase to 47.9%.

[luke warm]

am i correct that everyone bids the same whether mps or imps?

[civill]

With the difference of imps or mps,there are more options such as above all listing.

[whereagles]

I'll violate Hamman's rule and X over 3S. 3N just feels wrong. Xing and bidding hearts over 4D would suggest clubs and is more flexible. If pard bids pass/3N/4C/4H/5C those are all really good, if he bids 4D then we should be in OK shape as long as 3N wasnt our last making game. If pard bids 5D over my X i have an awful problem :P

 

Over 2S X seems obvious now

A better judgement of the situation than mine, I must say. Good job :)