Balance or not?

[Echognome]

Game All, As North you hold:

 

♠ AQ82

♥ QJ102

♦ KJ52

♣ 10

 

The bidding goes

 

W N E S

1♦ P 1♥ P

2♣ P 3♣ P

P ?

 

What do you bid now? If you didn't pass your first two turns, what did you bid?

[beatrix45]

:P

PASS

Not sure what form of scoring here, but I surely can't fault passing up to now. Bidding at this point could be suicide. Once in a while opponents will have nine clubs, AND we will have nine spades, but I'm not going to risk -800 to find out. In retrospect, I wish I had overcalled 1♠, but there are plenty of good arguments against that.

[awm]

I would have doubled the 2♣: takeout (mostly major oriented) in my style. Having passed, I think my best option here is to pass again. Opponents have the cards, but I'd be surprised if they were making 3♣ given my holding in diamonds behind the bidder. We might have 3♠ but I wouldn't want to bet on it.

[pbleighton]

Pass.

 

I would have overcalled 1S the first time. I like to have a better suit vul, but the hand is pretty good, with the KJ of diamonds well placed.

 

Peter

[luis]

I really don't see the logic of the question. What kind of player can pass twice with this hand and then decide that you have to act at the 3 level once they have found a fit?

If I were to hold this cards I would have doubled 2♣ which I think is quite logical showing 4-4 in the majors and probably 3-4 diamonds because I passed over 1♦. We can play 2♥, 2♠ or even 2♦ after that.

So I think passing in the 2nd round is wrong and if somebody passed twice acting now is probably caused by a split-personality disorder or something :-)

[cf_John0]

IMO,dbl 1D with this shape is suitable.

After 3C and 2 passes,another pass is not too more.

[pbleighton]

"IMO,dbl 1D with this shape is suitable."

 

And after pd's 2C bid you do what?

 

Peter

[cf_John0]

2NT If they don't bid.

[whereagles]

"IMO,dbl 1D with this shape is suitable."

 

And after pd's 2C bid you do what?

You pass. What's the problem?

 

I would double as well. Better run the slight risk of playing 2C than having to face awkard decisions later.

[P_Marlowe]

Pass, wtp?

 

Marlowe

[Chamaco]

IMO,dbl 1D with this shape is suitable.

I disagree.

 

1NT or 1H or 1S are all more plausible distortion of the hand than doubling (and of passing, IMO).

 

Indeed, my choice would be 1NT, but if I had to overcall a major, I'd prefer the txture of the heart suit.

[Free]

If you can't bid in your first or second round, then why can you now?? :blink: Just bid 1♠ in the first round...

[whereagles]

1NT or 1H or 1S are all more plausible distortion of the hand than doubling (and of passing, IMO).

This is indeed a matter of style, but 1H and 1S are two bids which can really mess up your side's bidding. If you're willing to take that risk, go ahead, but I'd really prefer to bring both majors into the picture instead of muddying the issue :blink:

 

By the way, an interesting possibility is pass, hoping to be able to butt-in later:

 

1D pass 1H pass

2C

 

having passed the 1st round, this is the final opportunity to get into the bidding: double. The modern way (Robson/Segal) to play this double is take-out of opener's SECOND suit. You have the perfect hand for this sort of delayed double.

 

If you pass 2nd round, it's the end. No longer will it be possible to bid anything in reasonable safety.

[pbleighton]

"I would double as well. Better run the slight risk of playing 2C than having to face awkard decisions later."

 

Without running a sim, my guess is that the chances of a 2C or 3C response is at least 50%.

 

Peter

[whereagles]

1. I very, very much doubt the chance to hear 2/3C is 50%. More like 15% or so if you ask me.

 

2. Besides, hearing 3C isn't a problem. That's an invitational hand, so you can correct to 3NT and all is well.

[luke warm]

pass now, o/c 1♠ originally (probably :huh:)

[HeartA]

I really don't see the logic of the question. What kind of player can pass twice with this hand and then decide that you have to act at the 3 level once they have found a fit?

If I were to hold this cards I would have doubled 2♣ which I think is quite logical showing 4-4 in the majors and probably 3-4 diamonds because I passed over 1♦. We can play 2♥, 2♠ or even 2♦ after that.

So I think passing in the 2nd round is wrong and if somebody passed twice acting now is probably caused by a split-personality disorder or something :-)

Agree. Double over 2♣.

[pbleighton]

"1. I very, very much doubt the chance to hear 2/3C is 50%. More like 15% or so if you ask me.

 

2. Besides, hearing 3C isn't a problem. That's an invitational hand, so you can correct to 3NT and all is well."

 

1) You are ignoring conditional probability. You are ordering pd to pick between 3 suits. If you were 4-4-1-4, the odds of a club response is somewhat less than 33% (20-25%? - but not 15%), since with equal length in clubs and a major he will pick the major, and with balanced, no 4 card major, and diamond length and a hard stopper he will bid NT. But you aren't 4-4-1-4 - you are singleton in clubs, which makes it more likely that pd will choose clubs.

 

2) So you are in 3NT with your 13 opposite pd's 9+, with a misfit. Wonderful. And going to 2NT after pd's 2C is REALLY asking for it.

 

Peter

[HeartA]

1. I very, very much doubt the chance to hear 2/3C is 50%. More like 15% or so if you ask me.

 

2. Besides, hearing 3C isn't a problem. That's an invitational hand, so you can correct to 3NT and all is well.

If my pd dbl with such a hand and "correct" my 3C to 3NT, he wouldn't be my pd anymore.

[whereagles]

You are ignoring conditional probability.

That's a self-serving statement. You have no way to know what I'm thinking.

 

Anyway, you bid it your way, I bid it my way. This isn't a matter of technique, it's more a matter of style.

[whereagles]

1. I very, very much doubt the chance to hear 2/3C is 50%. More like 15% or so if you ask me.

 

2. Besides, hearing 3C isn't a problem. That's an invitational hand, so you can correct to 3NT and all is well.

If my pd dbl with such a hand and "correct" my 3C to 3NT, he wouldn't be my pd anymore.

In other words, people that bid hands their way, not yours, are unworthy of being your partner.

[pbleighton]

"That's a self-serving statement."

 

Nope - it's a statement of fact.

 

Peter

[whereagles]

Here's another statement of fact: you do not know how to distinguish judgement from claims.

[pbleighton]

"Here's another statement of fact: you do not know how to distinguish judgement from claims."

 

Big words. You might try looking at my argument. The singleton club (versus 4-4 in the majors) means that a higher percentage of the time partner will be longer in clubs than in a specific major. This is basic, irrefutable conditional probability. It doesn't prove that double is the wrong bid. It does show that a club response will happen more than 15% of the time, as you claimed.

 

Peter

[luke warm]

yesterday i couldn't even spell philosopher, today i are one :(

 

i think whereagles is saying that your statement, "You are ignoring conditional probability" is a knowledge claim... he's saying that you can't make such a claim, whether he is or is not in fact ignoring conditional probability... yeah, it's a small thing, but still ... if you want to be a stickler for it, "in my opinion (ie, judgment), you are ignoring... etc"

 

this is fun :)