Would you bid this differently and get to a grand?

[thepossum]

Hi all

 

I know sometimes I seem obsessed with slams, but it is something I a need much more work on, especially use of different forcing methods and better use of cue bids etc.

 

Would a good partnership bid 7S or NT here. If so, how would you get there using most commonly available methods (ie nothing too obscure :)) A few NT slam bidders used Gerber for Aces but didnt continue with asking about Kings

 

I assume it needs a much slower exploration of Aces and Kings via cue bids or for the Blackwood to be asked by me, not North? It seems that very often if the weaker hand bids Blackwood you can miss out. However the hard bit with this hand seems to be knowing that we each have AKQ of three suits which allow a loser to be discarded. Also relies on J trumps behaving but thats a high chance.

 

Any ideas please :) PS Nobody bid it which maybe is not surprising in regular play. Should I have been the one to bid to 7 after 6? But I didnt know enough about North's hearts and I dont think I can be sure based on point count?

 

regards P

 

 

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sakq8h85da3cakq97&w=sjt5h973dk9742c53&n=s7432hakq6dt65cj2&e=s96hjt42dqj8ct864&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp2cp2np3cp3hp3sp4np5dp5hp6cp6sppp]399|300[/hv]

[Tramticket]

A Grand Slam seems to need spades to be 3-2. I want better odds than that to be in a Grand Slam.

[Cyberyeti]

A Grand Slam seems to need spades to be 3-2. I want better odds than that to be in a Grand Slam.

 

7♠ does, and also not a disaster in the club suit, 7N if the clubs run and the same person has 4 hearts and 4 spades will also make or if the spades run, the clubs don't but the same hand has the club and the 4th heart. There are also some less likely squeeze possibilities if somebody has ♦KQJ.

 

That said I think we get to 6♠ also, N cannot communicate J♣ and Q♥ to S, both of which are necessary to think about the grand and one is required to make 6N. Strong club system has it easier on this sort of thing.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

2D instead of 2NT is a better response, it leaves more room for the strong hand to declare it self.

After 2D, ..., I would think most peoble would prefer to bid 2NT instead of 3C, the hand is semibal.,

and you cover 3 of the 4 suits. 3C should show a 6 carder.

 

2C - 2D

2NT(1) - 3S (1)

4H (2) - 4NT (3)

5D (3) - 5NT (4)

6H (4) - 6S (5)

all pass

 

(1) Simple Stayman, 4 spades, denies 4 hearts

(2) forcing raise for spades, showing SI

(3) RKCB 3041, 1 KC

(4) specific king Ask, heart King, denies diamond King

 

If you play RKCB 4130 you gain some steps, opener is at 5NT

knowing the heart king, responder could still have the diamond

king, hence he could make an GF try ..., he may or may not.

[cherdano]

A Grand Slam seems to need spades to be 3-2. I want better odds than that to be in a Grand Slam.

Why?

[Tramticket]

Hmmm...

 

The arithmetic is a bit messy, but I think that 7♠ will have better odds than 7NT.

 

7♠ succeeds any time spades break 3-2 (about 68%). You can cope with clubs 5-1 (the 13th trick comes from ruffing a heart). So you just need to deduct for the small possibility of a trick 1 ruff in clubs (or other suit).

 

7NT needs both the 3-2 spade break and the clubs to be 4-2 (with a bit of relief for the squeeze possibilities). I can't calculate exactly, but I think that these odds are worse. (7♣ is also worse I think).

 

I don't think that we want to be in any grand - even if we can identify Q♥, J♣ etc.

[Tramticket]

Why?

 

Depends on the form of scoring and the field of course, but conventional wisdom seems to be that you want better than 68% for a grand.

[Tramticket]

2D instead of 2NT is a better response,

 

A 2♥ response is better than 2NT too - at least it tells partner where our values are.

[cherdano]

Depends on the form of scoring and the field of course, but conventional wisdom seems to be that you want better than 68% for a grand.

It depends very much on the hand. Here, with 32hcp, I expect the field to be in slam, so 68% is plenty in my view.

[The_Badger]

Only if I were chasing a top at MPs or a swing in an IMP game would I bid a grand here. I like the way that you have tried to explore every option scientifically with your bidding sequence, but sometimes not telling the opposition about your hand, or giving them an opportunity to double a cue bid or an RKCB response to show a lead works best.

 

Here you could be looking at two ♥ losers irrespective of whether North or South plays the hand. If 2NT shows 10-11(12) here, I'm inclined to just take a leap of faith and bid 6NT as South and trust that partner has either the ♥A or K.

 

Partner may not have the ♥A or K and still 6NT could be made if another suit is led. But the opposition has to find that lead first.

 

Grand slams should be bid where the distributional odds are or exceed 75% generally.

[P_Marlowe]

A 2♥ response is better than 2NT too - at least it tells partner where our values are.

I agree, ..., except I believe a natural 2H bid showes 5+

The advantage of 2NT, ... it could set up a forcing auction up to 4NT (if the partnership agreed this),

opener will see 31-33HCP, so if the agreement forcing to 4NT is in place, 2NT is not bad.

The only problem is, ..., finding 44 fits, and opener still needs to tell, if he is single suited or

balanced.

[Tramticket]

It depends very much on the hand. Here, with 32hcp, I expect the field to be in slam, so 68% is plenty in my view.

 

Yes, I take your point. Maybe it is a reflection of the level that I play at, but there always seems to be a percentage of players who will never bid a slam - no matter how lay-down it is!

[Stephen Tu]

68%, 75% to bid grands???? You guys are way, way too conservative.

 

It *depends on the hand*, and form of scoring. If the high card points are very high as here, 32, with a reasonably easy to discover 4-4 spade fit, no keycards missing, you expect a very large percentage of even the "little old people" to find small slam.

 

At IMPS: if you are 100% certain other table(s) is/are in at least small slam, you only need 56+% to bid the grand. Scale upwards as your uncertainty about the other tables grow. 68% is nearly always enough IMO if you don't think the small slam difficult to bid. Waiting for 75,80+% is if you are experts against beginner team/field and it's < 31 HCP IMO. I try to not play too many events where I am supposed to wait for 80% grands.

 

 

At matchpoints: If 100% of field is in small slam, in theory 51% is enough to bid grand (unless you think you can capture a lot of extra MP by finding superior scoring small, e.g. 6nt > 6m or 6nt > 6M if both will take same # of tricks). Now if half the field is missing the slam indeed you want 75+%, but if on high HCP hands where you only think 25% at most of the field can miss slam then 65+% is plenty.

 

 

As for the actual hand, IMO North should bid the grand no matter the auction after all keycards are known about, but the bots often don't know how to count to 13 tricks. North should be able to visualize the Q and J as extra crucial cards not shown, and also that South should have CQ a very large percentage of the time. I would prefer auctions that don't make North captain though, I like it if the 2c-2nt creates a force on auctions like 2c-2nt-3c-3h-3s-4s, where first chance to show fit is raise major to 4 level.

[Cyberyeti]

A 2♥ response is better than 2NT too - at least it tells partner where our values are.

 

Very old style Acol used to routinely bid 2M on 4 card suits, but that went west a while ago.

 

While many experts now use 2♦ waiting, most of the population are bidding 2N, we are also doing this but showing a bit more than most as it's not only F4N, but if we bid 4N, it's invitational opposite 22-23.

 

I can find out in a fairly ugly auction that N has 4 spades, AKxx hearts, no ♦K and some added quacks, a Q or 2-3 J's. I don't know how many clubs he has, obviously much better if it's 3 than 2

[The_Badger]

68%, 75% to bid grands???? You guys are way, way too conservative.

 

In hindsight I have to agree with you, Stephen. I found this on the net. These statistics from two respected bridge players and 'number crunchers' confirms this.

 

http://bridge-tips.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Percentages-for-Bidding-Games-Small-Slams-and-Grand-Slams-at-Duplicate-Teams1.pdf

[nullve]

Fairly standard 2/1 auction:

 

2♣-2♦ (22+ BAL or GF; waiting)

3♣-3♦ (5+ C, unbalanced; waiting, no 5c major)

3♠-4♥ (4+ S; good spade raise (what else?))

4♠-4N (minimum; RKC)

5♦-5♥ (1 or 4 key cards; trump Q ask)

6♣-7♠ (trump Q + ♣K; contract)

P

[Cyberyeti]

Fairly standard 2/1 auction:

 

2♣-2♦ (22+ BAL or GF; waiting)

3♣-3♦ (5+ C, unbalanced; waiting, no 5c major)

3♠-4♥ (4+ S; good spade raise (what else?))

4♠-4N (minimum; RKC)

5♦-5♥ (1 or 4 key cards; trump Q ask)

6♣-7♠ (trump Q + ♣K; contract)

P

 

So you really want to be in grand opposite AKQx, xx, AQ, AKxxx ?

[pescetom]

I found this on the net. These statistics from two respected bridge players and 'number crunchers' confirms this.

 

http://bridge-tips.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Percentages-for-Bidding-Games-Small-Slams-and-Grand-Slams-at-Duplicate-Teams1.pdf

 

Wow, that's excellent, even if it implictly admits that the following has much truth :)

 

Bob Hamman’s simple rule for slam bidding: “A good slam is one that makes.”

[nullve]

So you really want to be in grand opposite AKQx, xx, AQ, AKxxx ?

So Opener must have the worst hand imaginable?

[Cyberyeti]

So Opener must have the worst hand imaginable?

 

No but there are actually not that many combinations available within the parameters you already know, assuming he has AKQx, xx, Ax, AKxxx that's 20 of his assumed 22 points (much more common than 23). How do you fancy AKQJ, xx, AJ, AKxxx which I suspect may be worse. He actually has the best possible 22 I think barring ♣10.

[Stephen Tu]

[deleted]

[thepossum]

Dear all

 

Thankyou for all your comments and considerations. I understand it may be a borderline one but as cyberyeti says, my hand was a very good 23 pointer (I think) so it was probably more realistic for me to be thinking of the grand. But as people have confirmed it does seem hard to know for sure what North has. If I was playing a tournament and felt I needed a swing I may go for it (depending on whether my partner was a forgiving bot or a forgiving/unforgiving human :) ). However I realise reading all the comments that I missed a few of the considerations.

 

Here are a few recent thoughts after reading. I have told North I have 5C 4S and I know the bot has 4H 4S, 2 or 3 each of C and D. We know we have all the key cards and north knows I have K C. I know north has (according to GIB guidelines) 8-11 HCP, 9-12 Total. I have 22 HCP and 23+ total points (depending on how I value distribution). GIB values mine at 23, Pavlicek would make it 24 and K-R 25(assuming anyone could do it in their head). I dont know how North or South should adjust based on the auction

 

So assuming I make the decision I have to distribute 4- 7 unknown points between J trumps, KQJ H, KQJ D, J C (14 total unknown points). Given that I wasnt asking about Aces and Kings (and we hadnt used any cues), I either have to hope for at least one K, maybe 2 if lucky? or concentration in hearts.

 

If I could have asked about kings I would have found out about K H, know we had length for possible discards/ruffs on Clubs and Hearts and taken a bit of a risk, depending on circumstance.

 

68% probability doesnt worry me at MPs but would depend on partner. It would be interesting to know what the full probability is on a single hand - is it as simple as just the 3-2 trump break + a few small extra chances (ie 68+ %), or is it 68- % because of the lack of information about the hands. If you have the 3-2 trump break, you dont need to worry about J clubs (assuming short clubs in north or do you?

 

thanks for everyone's interesting discussion

 

regards P