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Lucky lead


nige1

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[hv=pc=n&d=N&v=0&k=S&s=SKQJ2HA82DT753CQ9&w=S763HKT74Dj9CAK54&n=SA94H63DAK6CJT862&a=1CP1SP2SP3NPPP&p=S3S4S8SKC9C4C2C3]399|300|

League Match.

Aggregate Scoring.

 

Rubbing my nose in another of my messes :(

(I excelled myself on this hand) :)

 

Please press next to reveal

dummy and the first 2 tricks.

 

You win LHO;s lead with K.

Your 9 wins the 2nd trick.

 

How do you continue from here?[/hv]

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There is way to hesitate.

 

If you know your opps, after winning your CQ continuation, how likely will they switch to H and get their 5 or more tricks, or how likely will they continue S, or open the H but block themselves, or crash C AK on the same trick?

 

On the contrary, D breaking 33 or Hx / stiff H / stiff QJ with West or stiff QJ with East is an assessable likelihood (for someone better than me with maths, a guess close to 45% as 36 + 1/2 x 48 x something that I imagine is a bit less than 1/2 but can’t compute🤣).

 

You picked the wrong assessment?

 

After Xmas at trick 1 and trick 2, Xmas by opps can’t continue, so I’d go for Xmas by the deck and play on D.

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