How many tricks to go for?

[MP7601]

[hv=pc=n&w=st5hkj7da872cqj53&e=s942haq864d4cak76&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=p1hp1n(forcing)p2c2d3h(3%20cd%20limit%20raise)p4hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

In a club all-rounded pairs game in which the scoring is 55% Matchpoints and 45% IMPs,

 

south leads the trump deuce. Plan your play.

[The_Badger]

Without the trump lead, you might have been able to negotiate 11 tricks, but best defence suggests that only 10 are available now. There's a possibility there's 11 on a dummy reversal too, but that's asking a lot of suits to behave favourably, which might not happen given South's 2♦ bid. The lead does suggest that trumps will break 3-2 - small card from three small - so I would start off with trying to ruff the third ♠ in dummy but that in itself could be fraught with danger if the suits are breaking badly, but I have a gut feel that ♠s will behave as South could have doubled on the second round with both a ♦ suit and a ♠ suit.

[gordontd]

Without the trump lead, you might have been able to negotiate 11 tricks, but best defence suggests that only 10 are available now. There's a possibility there's 11 on a dummy reversal too, but that's asking a lot of suits to behave favourably, which might not happen given South's 2♦ bid. The lead does suggest that trumps will break 3-2 - small card from three small - so I would start off with trying to ruff the third ♠ in dummy but that in itself could be fraught with danger if the suits are breaking badly, but I have a gut feel that ♠s will behave as South could have doubled on the second round with both a ♦ suit and a ♠ suit.

I'd try the dummy reversal. It's clear you won't get to ruff a spade in dummy, but it's North who will be short in diamonds, so you have chances if clubs behave and you are unlikely to do worse than ten tricks even if things don't go as well as you aim for.

[Tramticket]

Interesting format.

 

Yes, I try for dummy reversal. But it is a long shot I think. I abandon the attempt if North discards a club when you ruff the second round of diamonds.

 

North will need to cross to dummy three more times to ruff diamonds twice more, then draw the final trump and North will likely discard clubs on the third and fourth round of diamonds. I cross in clubs first, then in trumps (abandoning the dummy reversal if trumps are 4-1), then finally in clubs. It feels like you need North to hold four clubs and three trumps to get your 11th trick.

[rhm]

Interesting format.

 

Yes, I try for dummy reversal. But it is a long shot I think. I abandon the attempt if North discards a club when you ruff the second round of diamonds.

 

North will need to cross to dummy three more times to ruff diamonds twice more, then draw the final trump and North will likely discard clubs on the third and fourth round of diamonds. I cross in clubs first, then in trumps (abandoning the dummy reversal if trumps are 4-1), then finally in clubs. It feels like you need North to hold four clubs and three trumps to get your 11th trick.

Where is the big risk?

You win the first trump in hand noting trumps are not 5-0

You play a diamond to the ace and ruff a diamond. Diamonds wont be 8-0

Now play a trump to the jack.

If trumps are 4-1 you give up on the dummy reversal. Almost impossible that North has 7♠-4♥-1♦-1♣, white against red to boot.

Could South have 4 hearts and a void in clubs? Would he lead a trump from such a hand? Hardly!

If trumps are not 4-1 continue with the dummy reversal.

At worst you will exchange a ruff for the third spade loser.

 

Looks to me pretty risk free and the only realistic chance for an overtrick.

For the dummy reversal to work South needs 3 hearts and at least 2 clubs or North needs 3 hearts and at least 6 minor suit cards.

South 2 diamond over-call on the second round suggests shortage in clubs. No reason to be pessimistic.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Winstonm]

Again, in MPs it is always about the quality of the field.

 

Assuming a good but not great field, I think it likely that South would have led stiff club, unlikely he led stiff heart, so I play for the dummy reversal. On a 12 top, I would expect 11 tricks would garner 9-10, 10 tricks 5-to 7-, while +200 would get 4 and +170 would get 3. Down 1 would get a 1- or 2.