Difficult simple bidding choice

[hokum]

[hv=pc=n&s=saq98642hqdkqj3cj&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=pp1s3d(%22weak%22)dp]133|200[/hv]

 

Thank you! Experts: your thoughts please.

[The_Badger]

In my youthful, dynamite-blasting-bidding-days I might have opened 4♠ vulnerable in 3rd position with this hand. As partner has passed it's unlikely you have a slam, so I would have bid what I felt my hand is worth: partner just needs ♠J and an ace to make 4♠ a reasonable proposition. It seems a bit silly to open 1♠ sort of knowing that 4♠ is likely to be the final contract in most cases. With two suits open, the opponents are going to compete, so why make life difficult for yourself. Give them a guess on the first round of bidding. However...

 

...now that the opponents have indicated that the hand is a bit of a misfit all round and have decided to compete in your second suit, and partner has shown general values in the other two suits, I would just leave the X in. Not quite licking my lips, but expecting +800 at the very least.

 

4♠ may not play well on a ♦A lead, etc. Yes, it is close, and the 3♦ bid might have been made on more than just a weak hand, but you have to trust partner here.

[nullve]

There are about 17 total trumps, but probably fewer total tricks due to holding KQJx in their suit. So Pass is obvious both at MPs and IMPs.

[mikestar13]

... I would just leave the X in. Not quite licking my lips, but expecting +800 at the very least....

e

I would be licking my lips. I've run into enough"preempt on any crap" opponents that if I'm up against one of them, I'd be thinking +1100.

[gszes]

PASS

3n or 4s might work but the backs of the card keep us from knowing which is best. 3dx is a virtual certainty to go down 1 (3d spade ace + whatever partner can offer) and could go down 3 depending on partners cards. The more we can generally set 3d the higher our chances are of making 3n or 4s. That seems to make pass the logical choice.

[msjennifer]

I am not an expert, still I wish to express my opinion if no one minds.It is difficult to guess partners hand because of the preempt.Partner may be having a hand something like Kx-Axxxx-x-Axxxx.In that case 4S is making. With a lesser holding we can easily go down also.Its a real problem.3DX may be made also if P partner does not have the Aces.I am not so certain of 500-1100 which some panelists are expecting.If the contract goes down only one then still we are the losers if 4S is making.If opponents are unknown then my personal opinion is a bid of 3S the bid which I would have made if LHO had passed.May turn out to be a timid bid who knows.

[zenbiddist]

Thanks Jennifer. The 5-5 hand with two aces that you're hoping partner has won't exist because partner will have opened that at the 1-level.

 

3Dx will often make if the preemptor has a spade void (their bad diamond suit suggests a secret weapon) and they have club tricks, ie ace king and ten or better. That's not out of the question, but a lot of the other times 3D goes down one or two and 4S is defeated on DA lead, or when declarer mispicks the hand.

 

Passing seems like the winner to me.

[helene_t]

If I were to differentiate between MP and IMP, I would pass at IMP and bid 4♠ at MP. The reason is that if 4♠ goes down, it's a disaster at IMP. So I'll take my reasonably safe +500, and +200 on a bad day. At MP I'd be inclined to go with the field instead of risking +500 against +620.

[mikeh]

I upvoted Helene's post but am not at all sure that I'd actually pass at imps. I think it depends on my LHO.

 

A good LHO will have a surprise for me....either an 8th diamond or a side suit, probably clubs. He is free to preempt on a good playing hand since his partner is a passed hand. Moreover, if he is short in spades, he'll want to maximize the preempt rather than make a 2-level overcall on a weak, if long, suit.

 

I would not be the least surprised to find LHO with something like void xx A10987xx KQxx and there is plenty of room for RHO to have something like Jxxx Kxxxx x A10x, leaving partner with Kx AJxxx x xxxxx, which looks like a reasonable negative double to me.

 

Obviously playing for specific layouts is a fool's game, and I am not suggesting that I expect them to make 3D. It is to say that against strong opponents I would be nervous, rather than enthusiastic about passing.

 

The more I think about it, the more I want to change my mind and bid 4S at all scoring. Partner did not double expecting us to pass, and a 3S rebid must be something he is ready for, so with this hand, he should have a dummy that offers play for 620. And a competent opp is unlikely to have offered up 800.