BPO-001-A

[inquiry]

The experts are still mailing their results in. About half have responded, and we certainly appeciate their participation. Part of this first problem set was to work out the "kinks" in the process so that we can run these polls in an efficient manner.

 

Part of working out the kinks was the MOST excellent suggestion that the problem hands be posted in individual threads so that users can discuss the hands in threads dedicated to that hand. So here goes, we shall jump the gun by posting the first problem hand today, and then subsequent problem hands later.

 

The discussion of this hand is now open. In a day or two, I will post what the experts thought about this hand. Did you vote for PASS, 1♦ 1♥ 2♦ 3♦ or something completely different?

[hv=d=w&v=a&s=s4hqjt6dkj9865ckq]133|100|Scoring: MP

BPO-001-A

 

Note: Some problems will be matchpoint, some will be imps, this is matchpoints. After three passes to you, what do you bid?

 

West North East South

 

Pass Pass Pass ?

[/hv]

[Chamaco]

I passed.

I anticipated opps reaching 3S and I started to count my defensive tricks.

 

I evaluatd my hand worth at most 2 tricks in defense (diamond values are suspect) and my passed hand pard would hardly provide more than 2 defensive tricks.

There is indeed the chance that he can provide an extra defensive trick if he has length in spades, but I am not so sure.

 

So, since the chances of defeating 3S seemed slim to me, I preferred to pass.

[Double !]

HI all

 

Matchpoints: I try to play for some sort of plus score, and passing doesn't get me a plus score. I see my lack of aces and stiff spade. That's the downside. I also have a 6 loser hand, more that enough zars, and good internal spots or sequences in my two suits = trick-taking potential. RHO in 3rd seat didn't bid, so I suspect that my P has a few cards over there, and it's not clear yet that the opps necessarly have a spade fit or a black suit double fit. Partner might have a reasonable hand along with some spades, I don't know yet. I can't base my decision to bid or not to bid based on events that haven't even occurred yet. And I think offensive potential is sufficient that I can make a plus score if we declare, and it's not clear yet that the opps can make anything. I have a bid, so why don't I make it.

 

My choice was to bid One Diamond.

 

DHL

[HeartA]

Pass.

[shoeless]

As I worked diligently to justify my 1 diamond bid - Double read my mind and said it quickly and succinctly - one other factor for me is that I dont have a rebid problem

[mike777]

Pass

 

Pearson Point count=13. Pearson says open with 14 in 4th seat. But Pearson allows for good distribution plus aces and kings to be opened. Hands with aces and kings are more attractive to open than hands filled with queens and jacks.

 

On this one I count more queens and jacks than aces and kings.

 

I also add I expect my partner to open all 11 HCP hands and many shapely 10 hcp in second seat so......."...this event has occurred".

[iggygork]

I am torn between Pass and opening 1♦. Yes, plus is important at MPs, and yes, opps will compete like crazy in spades, but can I not get my plus by beating the opps in their pushy 3+♠ contracts when pard has something decent in defense plus trump length?

 

Passing does not automatically hypnotise LHO into passing too, with any spade hand and cognizant of the scoring system, he will probably open some number of spades himself. If he cannot because he does not have spades, why should I give up my shot at making a contract? Granted, this may lose if RHO is the one with the long, topless spades, but it may win a lot if LHO was preparing to open 2NT(20-21) or 2C (artificial and forcing).

 

1♠ anyone? :unsure:

[cherdano]

Shouldn't we wait with this kind of discussion until everybody has had a chance to vote?

[Double !]

There is one very specific reason why lho will never bid on this auction if I pass now.

 

and, yes, we can get a plus from beating the opps on defense, and I think that rho's 3rd seat pass is noteworthy. And, how light are the opps going to bid on seeing how all are red on this hand?

[pclayton]

I don't see a problem with the non-panelists discussing these hands. I doubt if the panelists would take much stock in the what the others think anyway. :unsure:

 

I opened it 1♦. While NS have some spades, I'm not convinced that it can't be our hand in 4♥. Its a 6 loser hand with nice texture.

 

Ben - aren't the polls going to have a system question?

[EricK]

Out of step with the majority. Again.

 

But I voted for 2♦.

 

I didn't pay my entrance fee to just sit around discussing what I might have bid so I am not passing! But I want to make it hard for the opponents to find a 5-4 spade fit. Because a 4th seat 2♦ pre-empt can be quite strong, it is dangerous for LHO to overcall 2♠ on a borderline hand.

 

2♦ might cause us to miss 4♥ but as it is MP I want to make the bid which scores well most often, without worrying about "mights".

 

Eric

[pclayton]

Out of step with the majority. Again.

 

But I voted for 2♦.

 

I didn't pay my entrance fee to just sit around discussing what I might have bid so I am not passing! But I want to make it hard for the opponents to find a 5-4 spade fit. Because a 4th seat 2♦ pre-empt can be quite strong, it is dangerous for LHO to overcall 2♠ on a borderline hand.

 

2♦ might cause us to miss 4♥ but as it is MP I want to make the bid which scores well most often, without worrying about "mights".

 

Eric

With 2♦ you still might slither back into a 5-4 heart contract after a spade bid on your left, but it makes it tougher to find the 4-4♥'s.

[mike777]

Pass

 

Pearson Point count=13. Pearson says open with 14 in 4th seat.  But Pearson allows for good distribution plus aces and kings to be opened. Hands with aces and kings are more attractive to open than hands filled with queens and jacks.

 

On this one I count more queens and jacks than aces and kings.

 

I also add I expect my partner to open all 11 HCP hands and many shapely 10 hcp in second seat so......."...this event has occurred".

With junky openings you may even want to bump this up to 15+ in 4th seat.

 

My buddies tell me they are having hard time coming with hand where 4h makes by us and 4s does not by opp. Note p passed in second seat how many cover cards can they have?

[bearmum]

1♦

 

Sure you MAY let opps in to bid some level of spades but i can't justify passing for that reason :lol:

[luke warm]

i voted 'pass' also... my feeling is, i have to be prepared to bid 3D (or maybe hearts) else i shouldn't open at all

[inquiry]

I don't see a problem with the non-panelists discussing these hands. I doubt if the panelists would take much stock in the what the others think anyway.  :lol:

 

Ben - aren't the polls going to have a system question?

Not intentional systemic questions, but we will clearly probe systemic agreements with the replies. Also, I happen to agree that whatever we say in these threads will not influence the experts. However, it might influence the answers of some members. Thus, we will have to stop "accepting" votes after we post the hands so that users can suggest what bids they would choose.

 

But this raises the question, would your rather "read' what the experts said before you make your reply known public? I assume those of you posting here, the answer is no... others, the answer is yes.

 

Ben

[Dwingo]

The discussion here will surely influence the voting of the particpants (not the panelists)

 

Since this is a Test Run , it is OK. Otherwise, this thread is best opened after the polls close.

 

 

This looks like a straightforward 2♦ to me, but I would like to hear what is going on in the heads of the panelists when they see this hand

 

Godwin

[badderzboy]

I voted for 2♦ which ought to describe my hand pretty accurately here in 4th seat.

 

If the opps intervene my partner at least knows I have a 6 card suit with the points spread around pretty evenly.

 

Who knows with a 2♥ bid from partner (assuming RONF) we might get to 4...

 

 

It makes it a tad trickier for the opps to bid spades and it's also true they are likely to break badly for them so them playing in 3♠ may not be as bad as it sounds.

 

Steve K

BIL

[Gerben42]

I open 2♦. It describes my hand accurately. I know that they might outbid us in ♠ but who says they are making? They might get overboard after 2♦ 3♦ by us.

[xx1943]

Hi all

 

My choice is 2♦. Partner will be aware that my hand is like it is, except 4-card heart suit.

 

I cannot pass partner may have something like.

 

[hv=s=saj10xhxxxdqxcjxxx]133|100|[/hv]

 

Alternative to 2♦ is 1♦

 

Al

[whereagles]

I passed, though now that someone mentions it, 2D is probably a better bid.

[badderzboy]

But this raises the question, would your rather "read' what the experts said before you make your reply known public? I assume those of you posting here, the answer is no... others, the answer is yes

 

Hi Ben,

 

I think it would be a good idea if all and sundry get a day or two to post there views before the panel's views are posted.

 

I don't mind looking a fool 'cos I'm a BILlie :) lol but I find the discussion quite informative in developing my skills.

 

I'm more than happy to receive constructive criticism and see where my thinking has gone wrong :)

 

If we get the expert view first we may just get - I agree with Fred, i agree with Fred etc (lol not that likely given the diversity of responses on the forum), I would feel a tad embarrassed posting a different response to the experts :lol: .

 

Steve

[kgr]

Ben,

 

I propose you add a close date in the bidding poll. Then everybody knows until when answers are accepted.

You could also add a link to the bidding poll system for easy reference.

 

Then I think it is a good idea to get opinion of non-experts first before the pannel posts their opinion.

e.g.: On this hand Pass, 1D and 2D all look ok. If all or most experts would choose 2D then I certainly will not post that Pass looks best for me. I will rather agree with the experts then.

 

On this hand I open 1D (2D being me seconf choice). Opps will have a Spade fit, but my partner probably has 4-card S. I expect that we have a better D fit then their S fit and that we can make 3 D and they go down in 3 S... maybe this makes opening 2D a better choice.

[hrothgar]

1D

 

This hand evaluated as 13.3 using the K+R points. The hand is a clearly strong enough for an opening bid, so the concept of Pearson Points” don't apply. There is some risk that the opponents will be able to successfully compete in Spades, but more risk in passing. While the hand has appropriate strength for a 2D, the chunky 4 card Heart suit makes this too much of a position.

[Fluffy]

I passed as well, but I am asuming strong opponents, at MP this hand is all about knowing whoom are you playing against.

 

 

Are we suposed to assume average or expert opps?. I think this should be clarified as well.

 

It is true that our side rates to be strnger, and also rates to have much better shape, still ♠ are so important at MP, was a close decision though.