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Just another disaster opening lead


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Here is my line of reasoning.

 

We are playing MPs and opponents have stretched to game. So, if things lie badly for them, they may well go down. So we must ask: Do things lie badly for them?

 

The answer, apparently, is no. Dummy rates to have about 15-17 with a bit of shape whereas the declarer will have about 10.

 

I would not be surprised to see dummy come down with 2-4-5-2 and find declarer with 3-5-2-3.

 

The ace of hearts rates to be in the closed hand and the ace of diamonds on the board. So if a heart finesse is needed it will be working. If they have a 9-card fit missing the queen, then it will fall. Similarly, both diamond honors are onside. So it appears that you will need to try to hold down overtricks rather than try to beat the contract.

 

I will try a small club. If partner holds just the J then it will not cost whereas if he has K or A then you may be able to set up some tricks in that suit before your diamond entry is knocked out.

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