Just another disaster opening lead

[plaur]

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I've been through Opening Leads by Lawrence several times and it still does not click.

 

Matchpoints.

 

What is your analysis and thought process here before you pick a suit to lead?

[DozyDom]

Assuming (probably safely) that you are playing roughly standard leads:

 

If they're playing precision and the 1♦ is nebulous (or some other system with a nebulous diamond), I'm leading the KD. It would look like the best lead by far.

 

I'm guessing that isn't the case though. Instead, I'll lead the 6 of clubs. 4th highest from longest and strongest suit obviously doesn't always work out; I could be leading towards declarer's KJ or something. But it's less likely to blow a trick when I'm holding Q10 than just the bare queen, and much more likely to establish tricks.

 

I'll be honest, I normally stop thinking around that point because the other leads just look unappetising. Leading trumps could be right, but normally only when it'll cut down on declarer's ruffs - there's no evidence of that here, and it could easily blow a trump trick for my partner. Leading a diamond seems likely to help set up dummy's suit. And leading a spade will be questionable at best - leading the 9 as MUD will look obscenely like a doubleton, leading the 4 will look like low from 4 of them, and leading the jack will either look like I have the 10, or like I have a doubleton again.

 

That's not to say a low club will work. I just think it'll work more often than other leads.

[ggwhiz]

A spade is out (ie. Qx opposite AT for their side) and leading from any J without solid backup spots is the last choice.

 

The diamond trick(s) if it/they exist are going nowhere.

 

A trump lead from Tx when they may well be on a 4-4 fit to pickle partner or give them the timing to set up diamond pitches (likely losing 1 on the way) may be the worst.

 

If the ♣6 doesn't work I expect a lot of company. If I have a declarer that plays it a trick better than the field after this lead I have learned to take that for what it is, bad luck as opposed to a bad lead. Very important towards consistency in your own game.

[FelicityR]

And leading a spade will be questionable at best - leading the 9 as MUD will look obscenely like a doubleton, leading the 4 will look like low from 4 of them, and leading the jack will either look like I have the 10, or like I have a doubleton again.

 

As far as I am aware, MUD (Middle Up Down) leads are not made holding any card higher than and including the ten. It's some time since I played them so criteria might have changed, and when I played them it was xxx not H(T)xx. Though I agree with your other analysis, and I am too leading a small ♣ against this contract. With QTxx, partner can turn up with three cards that can help you (A,K,J) and its even-stevens that he/she is likely to have one.

[GrahamJson]

Assuming (probably safely) that you are playing roughly standard leads:

 

If they're playing precision and the 1♦ is nebulous (or some other system with a nebulous diamond), I'm leading the KD. It would look like the best lead by far.

 

I'm guessing that isn't the case though. Instead, I'll lead the 6 of clubs. 4th highest from longest and strongest suit obviously doesn't always work out; I could be leading towards declarer's KJ or something. But it's less likely to blow a trick when I'm holding Q10 than just the bare queen, and much more likely to establish tricks.

 

I'll be honest, I normally stop thinking around that point because the other leads just look unappetising. Leading trumps could be right, but normally only when it'll cut down on declarer's ruffs - there's no evidence of that here, and it could easily blow a trump trick for my partner. Leading a diamond seems likely to help set up dummy's suit. And leading a spade will be questionable at best - leading the 9 as MUD will look obscenely like a doubleton, leading the 4 will look like low from 4 of them, and leading the jack will either look like I have the 10, or like I have a doubleton again.

 

That's not to say a low club will work. I just think it'll work more often than other leads.

 

I would have thought that if oppo are playing Precision then there is even less reason to lead a diamond. With dummy limited to 15 points his raise must be based on shape, so he is likely to have a good diamond suit, which the lead of a diamond honour will help set up.

 

A small club looks pretty standard to me. Partner had two opportunities to bid spades, so is unlikely to have a good holding in the suit. In addition a trump lead is not going to reduce ruffing potential much, with four trumps in dummy, and could blow a trump trick. So a club it is. Now I await to hear that it gives a trick away and allows declarer to discard his losing diamond.

[nekthen]

I think I would lead K♦

The bidding appears confident and I think any other suit risks a trick. There is also the scenario where partner has a doubleton and a trump entry, which results in a diamond ruff. This may give us a magic -620 against -650 for any other lead.

[Tramticket]

I think that I would lead a trump on this auction because:

- The auction sounds like they are marginal in strength and may need trump tricks to get their total up to ten.

- I am not over-worrried about them setting up diamonds in dummy with my holding, particularly as I am sitting on declarer's left so he won't be able to ruff out my diamond honours.

- Given the above and because it's Matchpoints, I want to go passive. Leading from TX in trumps is not ideal, but everything else seems to be too aggressive.

[DozyDom]

As far as I am aware, MUD (Middle Up Down) leads are not made holding any card higher than and including the ten.

As far as I'm aware, they're not, no. Oops. I was trying to think of some reason why the 9 might be considered as a lead.

[P_Marlowe]

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I've been through Opening Leads by Lawrence several times and it still does not click.

 

Matchpoints.

 

What is your analysis and thought process here before you pick a suit to lead?

Hi,

 

they have an invitational seq., declarer is a passed hand, opener invited, i.e. they may have enough,

but it is quite likely that they dont have a lot to spare.

Given that, partner is marked with some values, most likely a little less than you have, but 6-8HCP he will

have

you are holding strong diamonds behind their length, the honors dont split, you have a realistic chance

of making both.

MP favors safe leads, since they wont have a lot to spare, even at IMPs you should try not give something

away

.........................................................................................................

A safe lead would be trumps, ...,if they have a 44 fit, this could find the Queen, but a 54 fit is possible.

Unbid suits would be reasonable as well, but bear a risk as well, and you have no idea, how those suits are

distributed.

If you go with the black suits, clubs rates to be safer than spades, any honor with partner will help you.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[msjennifer]

North appears to be 4/5 in H/D.His distribution in S/C is uncertain .I shall lead a passive trump."Whenever uncertain lead a trump".East also did not overcall either of the suits when he had the opportunity.(If forced to lead spades on the opening lead I shall lead the Jack)

[gordontd]

I shall lead a passive trump."Whenever uncertain lead a trump".

I'm not sure this is sound advice.

East also did not overcall either of the suits when he had the opportunity.

That seems to be a better reason for not leading a spade.

[eagles123]

i would lead a club

[DozyDom]

Hi,

 

they have an invitational seq., declarer is a passed hand, opener invited, i.e. they may have enough,

but it is quite likely that they dont have a lot to spare.

Given that, partner is marked with some values, most likely a little less than you have, but 6-8HCP he will

have

you are holding strong diamonds behind their length, the honors dont split, you have a realistic chance

of making both.

 

You've misread the sequence, I think - we're sitting under the diamond length.

[Tramticket]

You've misread the sequence, I think - we're sitting under the diamond length.

 

Yes, but this positioning makes it that much more difficult for declarer to establish length winners in the suit. Imagine say AJT9XX in dummy opposite a singleton in hand - after cashing the ace he will be unable to take ruffing finesses through your partner. If we lead a trump that might also reduce the ability to set up length winners in the suit.

[yunling]

A small club. North probably has a good ♦ suit and we have one stopper, and we must take our black winners before ♦ run.

 

♣ is safer than ♠.

[gszes]

small spade

 

I agree that p is unlikely to have a decent spade suit BUT I do not require that for my lead to be successful at MP. Strong chance of giving nothing away against bidding that leaves us with little clue on how to defend (ie is west around 18 bal or 15 and distributional?). The opps are very unlikely to set up the spade suit for pitches and the presence of the 9 removes a significant amount of the danger of leading from a jack (especially 3rd). If the spade is unsuccessful our backup plan is to switch to a club after we get in with a dia honor. A spade is much less likely to be successful as a back up plan if a club lead is unsuccessful. A spade risks losing a tempo when a club lead was needed but that is why they put backs on the cards.

AT MP

low spade = 8

low club = 6

trump = 4

dia honor = 3

 

 

AT IMPS

 

low club = 8

low spade = 7

trump = 4

dia honor = 2

[PhilG007]

♣6 simply becuse it's the lesser evil.

[Winstonm]

Auction sounds routine. Hearts breaking. Diamonds in the slot. Attack the black suit that is least likely to be singleton or doubleton for opps - spades.

 

Whoo-hoo! Another 4th in section! :P

[TylerE]

Curious to see the many votes for a club. That'd be my LAST choice.

[Cyberyeti]

Curious to see the many votes for a club. That'd be my LAST choice.

 

Diamond is berserk, club could easily be necessary but might cost one trick, spade could be necessary but could be an absolute disaster costing >1 trick, trump could be necessary but could cost a trick and a tempo.

 

I think I lead a club most of the time, second choice trump.

[miamijd]

Either a trump or a club could be right.

 

Dummy probably has a black singleton (unless it is 2452 it will have a stiff), so a trump lead will cut down ruffs. And dummy's singleton is most likely to be in clubs, as you are longer in C than in S.

 

On the other hand, if declarer has 2-3 diamonds, then a black suit lead might be needed to build a trick before declarer gets pitches. A spade is more likely to work here, because dummy is apt to have a stiff club, but a spade lead is also riskier than a club lead.

 

With KQxx of diamonds, I think I would hope that my holding is good enough to prevent declarer from making good use of dummy's diamond length and lead a trump.

 

How does a trump work out?

 

Cheers,

mike

[sfi]

*shrug* - club.

[thearb]

Either a trump or a club could be right.

 

Dummy probably has a black singleton (unless it is 2452 it will have a stiff), so a trump lead will cut down ruffs. And dummy's singleton is most likely to be in clubs, as you are longer in C than in S.

 

On the other hand, if declarer has 2-3 diamonds, then a black suit lead might be needed to build a trick before declarer gets pitches. A spade is more likely to work here, because dummy is apt to have a stiff club, but a spade lead is also riskier than a club lead.

 

With KQxx of diamonds, I think I would hope that my holding is good enough to prevent declarer from making good use of dummy's diamond length and lead a trump.

 

How does a trump work out?

 

Cheers,

mike

 

I'm with JD, a trump or a club. A trump would be more attractive if it was xx, with Tx there's a danger it could allow declarer to scoop up the suit, they might be in a 4-4 fit.

[steve2005]

I dont see how a trump can be help you are never stopping them ruffing and will cost if partner has Q.

KD may be right but opps will lead I see no rush

Club or Spade could be right. Partner cant have much so either could cost or be important to lead now,

[nekthen]

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This is the sort of deal I imagine

TBH if opps have their bids I do not see this going down.

The K♦ lead does give South an option at trick 1, he may well decide to take his ace and draw trumps. Partner can now return a ♦ and get a ruff.

On any other lead this is a routine 11 tricks. This also works if you swap the red aces