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Where are 13 tricks GUBBO? At least no insane jump


virgosrock

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I checked before I bid 6C. Still 13+. So wherefrom 7S ? Sunny GUBBO personality? The Singleton club? The 7 cards in spades? Simulation?

 

[hv=http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=pn%7Calphablue%2Cvirgosrock%2CRobotN%2CRobotE%7Cst%7C%7Cmd%7C4S9H235678KDTC68TQ%2CS78JAHTJD689C7JKA%2CS2H49D2357QKC3459%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard 10%7Csv%7Cb%7Cmb%7C1S%7Can%7CMajor suit opening -- 5%2B %21S%3B 11-21 HCP%3B 12-22 total points %7Cmb%7C3H%7Can%7CAggressive weak jump overcall -- 7%2B %21H%3B 10- HCP%3B 3%2B total points%7Cmb%7C4H%7Can%7CCue bid -- 3%2B %21S%3B 13%2B total points%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C4N%7Can%7CBlackwood %28S%29 -- 5%2B %21S%3B 21- HCP%3B 19-22 total points %7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C5H%7Can%7CTwo or five key cards%3B no queen -- 3%2B %21S%7Cmb%7Cd%7Can%7C7%2B total points %7Cmb%7C5N%7Can%7CQuery kings. Have all keycards. Does not promise extras -- 5%2B %21S%3B 21- HCP%3B %21SQ%3B 19-22 total points %7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C6C%7Can%7CKing of C -- 3%2B %21S%3B %21CK%3B 13%2B total point%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C7S%7Can%7CSignoff -- 5%2B %21S%3B 21- HCP%3B %21SQ%3B 19-22 total points %7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpg%7C%7C%0A%0A]399|300[/hv]

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Maybe Gubbo foresaw the double squeeze. after 7 rounds of spades this is the position: [hv=pc=n&s=s9hk876532dtcqt86&w=saj87hjtd986cakj7&n=s2h94dkq7532c9543&e=skqt6543haqdaj4c2&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1s3h4hp4np5hd5np6cp7sppp&p=s9sas2s3sjd2s4h2s8d3s5h3s7d5skh5sqh6d6d7sth7d8h4s6dtht]399|300[/hv]

 

Now the A squeezes South out of his club guard. Followed by the A which then squeezes North out his club guard. A simple finesse of the J then brings in four club tricks for the contract.

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Maybe Gubbo foresaw the double squeeze. after 7 rounds of spades this is the position: [hv=pc=n&s=s9hk876532dtcqt86&w=saj87hjtd986cakj7&n=s2h94dkq7532c9543&e=skqt6543haqdaj4c2&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1s3h4hp4np5hd5np6cp7sppp&p=s9sas2s3sjd2s4h2s8d3s5h3s7d5skh5sqh6d6d7sth7d8h4s6dtht]399|300[/hv]

 

Now the A squeezes South out of his club guard. Followed by the A which then squeezes North out his club guard. A simple finesse of the J then brings in four club tricks for the contract.

 

very fine catch jammen. i did not even investigate play possibility because of the bidding.

now the question becomes can one bid a grand based on a play might emerge?

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One problem GIB has here is that it has no sensible followup tries after 6c. 6D should ask for the DK but instead it's just a generic cue bid. So probably it just simulated and got too optimistic about success chances. They probably need higher threshold for bidding grands because DD simulations tend to be too optimistic about guessing two-way finesses/finesse vs. drop/finesse vs squeeze type of things at the slam level.
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One problem GIB has here is that it has no sensible followup tries after 6c. 6D should ask for the DK but instead it's just a generic cue bid. So probably it just simulated and got too optimistic about success chances. They probably need higher threshold for bidding grands because DD simulations tend to be too optimistic about guessing two-way finesses/finesse vs. drop/finesse vs squeeze type of things at the slam level.

 

If only GIB East had a way to bid a grand if West had more than AK and A plus trump support. The only player who knows that is West. An expert player would bid 6 and trust partner to bid 7 with extra tricks. I don't expect GIB to ever make those types of assumptions. :(

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If only GIB East had a way to bid a grand if West had more than AK and A plus trump support. The only player who knows that is West. An expert player would bid 6 and trust partner to bid 7 with extra tricks. I don't expect GIB to ever make those types of assumptions. :(

 

Is why I checked "points" for 6C. 13+ so I thought it is safe to bid 6C.

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